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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
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Posted

UKMO 144hrs

just stunning!

 

IMG_7552.thumb.png.78c7708a396daac0d85b56ad32cc3298.png

 

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MattH
MattH

Hi. I just wanted to create a post from an educational perspective and also be a point of reference regarding the importance of the GSDM and the AAM on the medium and long term. Hopefully, anyone

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Good God...its been my dad's funeral today..just a small service for close family as he didn't want a big fuss! This may seen insensitive me posting weather charts at such a time..but I will tell you

snowice
snowice

Premature ecmjulcation.

Posted Images

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on the coast Enthusiast

on the coast

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
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Posted
Just now, Ice Day said:

UK at 144 😍

image.thumb.png.091172b858a216bbd304982bcf90ac2f.png

Wow. Gale force winds and heavy snow showers. Brilliant chart.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

UKMO/ICON 144,... LOVELY.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.e27fff4027b59b283ef9d00779aa90b2.gificonnh-0-144.thumb.png.63bdb90792c93ae1aa667283e10b6a0e.png

the gfs,...well i have stopped viewing it🙃

Edited by Allseasons-Si
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

What is the GFS on - UKMO is lovely though 😍

IMG_2568.png

IMG_2569.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T168 ukmo going to be interesting.

IMG_0944.png

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, Zero Visibility said:

GFS still making too much of a fuss around Greenland.

Ignore it. Its useless.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

image.thumb.gif.8e6b351459d8fe57a6bd1fa0de4ca77c.gif
 

Clean as a whistle from the UKMO

GFS still messy

image.thumb.png.fca0505a65806b82a94a3b8c297e3e46.png

Still got that bulge.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted

Would personally take MOGREPS, EPS & UKMO at this range over the GFS and thus far those all remain solid. We'll see where the GFS det sits within the ensembles, it's far too messy in it's evolution. 

GFS doing a classic GFS most likely.

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

UKMO is rock solid again fantastic model viewing , I really can see it being wrong over the GFS at day 5

IMG_0229.gif

IMG_0230.gif

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted
1 minute ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

UKMO 144hrs

just stunning!

 

IMG_7552.thumb.png.78c7708a396daac0d85b56ad32cc3298.png

 

UKMO with a powerhouse Northerly straight into France no messing.  Bosh!!

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Rayth Community Regular

Rayth

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted (edited)

UKMO 

 

image.thumb.png.9a65c75675c63207b21efa77237122c4.png

sexy black and white GIF

Edited by Rayth
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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted

Hi all , Just finished work , whats been happening? Any teddy bears 🧸 thrown today ?

Anyway , the first model I have checked is this beauty from UKMO ☺️

33A3997B-0568-40FE-909B-A12BF29D2764.png

F0A88486-D2D7-4625-91A2-925954AF34DB.png

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

GEM looking more like GFS with that low just off the coast off Norway pushing everything a bit further west. It is however a slight improvement compared to the 0z when comparing the same timeframe at 120hrs

IMG_7553.thumb.png.49674ef7dd7ad7c8decc8a6329a707c7.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Gem is still messing around 2,

Looks like will be a huge error by the north American models at 96 hours

gemnh-0-120 (1).png

The GEm May get better, diff set up 👌

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

T168 ukmo going to be interesting.

IMG_0944.png

That would be stunning a nor noreaster!!! Snow showers would get well inland. Issues around longevity but that's another story. 

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted
Just now, Continental Climate said:

That would be stunning a nor noreaster!!! Snow showers would get well inland. Issues around longevity but that's another story. 

Ideal scenario would be that shortwave over Iceland move south eastwards giving some snow in places followed by a renewed northerly blast. 168 will be interesting anyway. 

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

They literally said he was the chief forecaster & that he is in charge of weather warnings, i.e the role of chief forecaster. He also does other stuff too though.

P.S. There is more than 1 'chief forecaster'.

Sorry to be pedantic, but the guy clearly says he’s the seasonal awareness guy. Previously a chief forecaster 🙂 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Gfs what is it doing..complete mess!not saying it's wrong of course

No, it's wrong.

 

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

GEM trending the right way also obviously nowhere near as good as UKMO but miles better than the GFS

IMG_0231.png

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PiscesStar Rising Star

PiscesStar

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hi all , Just finished work , whats been happening? Any teddy bears 🧸 thrown today ?

Anyway , the first model I have checked is this beauty from UKMO ☺️

33A3997B-0568-40FE-909B-A12BF29D2764.png

F0A88486-D2D7-4625-91A2-925954AF34DB.png

Hope you had a good day. Yes, the UKMO is the one to watch tonight. Very exciting prospects. Looks very snowy 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

image.thumb.gif.8e6b351459d8fe57a6bd1fa0de4ca77c.gif
 

Clean as a whistle from the UKMO

GFS still messy

image.thumb.png.fca0505a65806b82a94a3b8c297e3e46.png

Still got that bulge.

The difference between them seemingly getting bigger, because the UKMO looks to me an upgrade on its 0z.  Here are the two at T144:

IMG_8428.thumb.gif.e08e4cb92a83241941a7deb642d3c425.gifIMG_8427.thumb.png.59c084b3a6d11e9cc2003721073202ee.png

Predict GFS will gradually move to UKMO/ECM blend over the next 4 runs.  

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