Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[January Snowstorm]

15 minutes ago, cold snap said:

@January Snowstorm ECM is code red for Ireland if verifies .

You okay ? 

Lol, unfortunately am too old to fall for that chart!! It'll be likely gone in the morning. Someone mentioned 2018 and 2010, I stand to be corrected but I think both those events started as Easterly/Scandi High type setups. All very volatile at the moment!

[stewfox]

53 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Good north of the M4 then

Yes

[northwestsnow]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Lol, unfortunately am too old to fall for that chart!! It'll be likely gone in the morning. Someone mentioned 2018 and 2010, I stand to be corrected but I think both those events started as Easterly/Scandi High type setups. All very volatile at the moment!

Yes I'm not pinning my hopes on any day 10 snow depth chart ,good or bad.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Does it prolong the cold?

Fwiw, yes - develops a cold high 

Atlantic in by day 14

Edited January 9 by bluearmy

[Cymro]

56 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

-6/8 uppers just about good enough for snow

Especially following a cold few days beforehand and lowering SST

[Norrance]

35 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

It hammered down at times here tbf but just wouldn't settle

Probably the wet bulb temperature not being low enough.

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Could push North into Scotland and come to a halt then push south again

No chance of that happening!...but if the ECM is fairly accurate it wouldn't surprise me that some northern parts/Scotland get a real dumping. A bulbous low pressure won't keep moving northwards against some form of northern blocking and will come to a halt somewhere.

Check out 8th-16th January 1977...similar circumstances/synoptics that not many people remember. Snow to rain in the south and central parts, Scotland and particularly the Highlands a real snow fest.

[That ECM]

 Nice

Edited January 9 by That ECM

[sheikhy]

Very very good ecm mean all the way to the end!!!

[northwestsnow]

EC mean is incredibly good again..

[Pembroke Dangler]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is incredibly good again..

Very slidery looking that systems angled nw se and no Iberian heights either

[Bricriu]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Fwiw, yes - develops a cold high 

Atlantic in by day 14

So Atlantic in by the 23rd, which some have signposted for a while.  Hopefully only temporary though. Much as I would love an interrupted freeze till the end of February  the Altantic  won't allow that. I hope if we do get a snow event on the 19th it's not all washed away as per lrd's suggestion. It would be nice to have it stick around for a couple of days.

Edited January 9 by Bricriu

[PiscesStar]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is incredibly good again..

Looks like a scorpion with a potently cold stinger lol

[Mark wheeler]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is incredibly good again..

Wallop, get in. Along with Mogreps tbis evening things look rosey.

[bluearmy]

Only one cluster days 5 to 7 but it’s the control (effectively the eps say that the op is the best representation of the suite days 5 to 7) 

[Battleground Snow]

Jma not too dissimilar from the ecm run

I Still think the output past 120 is liable to swings at the moment 

[Chesil View]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Fwiw, the control diverges from the op post day 9

the runner is fifty miles further south and day 10 system is 36 hours later and runs through n France 

Which just goes to show the huge range of options that are on the table regarding the movement of the lows later next week. Nobody should take getting snow or not getting snow for granted.

Exact tracks if either of them actually approach our shore wont be sorted until 24 hour beforehand and certainly not at 240 hours beforehand.

Not trying to pee on anybody's fireworks but just stating facts gleaned from more than 40 years of model watching.

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

So Atlantic in by the 23rd, which some have signposted for a while.  Hopefully only temporary though. Much as I would love an interrupted freeze till the end of February  the Altantic  won't allow that. I hope if we do get a snow event on the 19th it's not all washed away as per lrd suggestion. It would be nice to have it stick around for a couple of days.

The last frame on the ECM won't look like that come the time. It's just computers playing around with different scenarios in an overall cold pattern. But if it's longevity you want, then you want lows to stay well south of you

Edited January 9 by LRD

[Bartlett High]

Why can't we get a chart like this?

[Drifter]

Just now, Bartlett High said:

Why can't we get a chart like this?

That’s next month. 

[steveinsussex]

15 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

Is Chris Fawkes forecasting end of next week already or is this old?!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

Is Chris Fawkes forecasting end of next week already or is this old?!

He’s using the 00z ec op

would never have happened when the met office ran the show! 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Only one cluster days 5 to 7 but it’s the control (effectively the eps say that the op is the best representation of the suite days 5 to 7) 

Which would suggest the high would be in a decent position but nothing to give us the details many crave. Met suggest less precipitation in the longer outlook so possible for the high to drift a little south bringing the possibility of ne winds. 

I know I’m going to far ahead but could be the way to have extended cold.
 

 

[stewfox]

21 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Remember GFS never makes drastic backtracks. It tries to sneak the changes in gradually without anyone noticing. 

GFS 0z causes a Prozac rush at 4am when it's woeful. 

Gets better on 6z ,anxiety on the 12z and either a dream pub run on 18z or winters over.

Folk notice the changes on GFS that's for sure. 

120 minutes 12 secs to GFS 18z

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Why can't we get a chart like this?

Whatta winter That was 12yrs old and.. it still sticks with me… also RIP Ian mCcaskill…another 1 has to bite someday… “ is it now”?? … maybe??!!

Edited January 9 by tight isobar