Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Mike Poole]

Clusters this evening are not helpful, just one cluster in both T120-T168, and T192-T240.  As much use as a chocolate teapot, or maybe the EPS have it nailed.  

T264+:

These headed into post-block territory.  Cluster 2 has an exceptionally southerly jet which could allow the UK to hang on to the embedded cold.  Cluster 3 has another go at shifting the block to Scandi.  Cluster 1 could be interesting initially in this timeframe if there is cold air in place.  

[Chasbrown]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

He’s using the 00z ec op

would never have happened when the met office ran the show! 

I wish the beeb would go back to the met office. 

[Eagle Eye]

This pattern compared to predicted at the end of last year has been very well predicted in my opinion. I'll quote myself a lot here just to show how the basic pattern has verified. 

", the unstable inertia rules here due to the distribution of AAM appearing to continue to force the -VE NAM imprint on the Trop. Generally, a supportive sign for Stratospheric imprinting as well. As we go into mid-Winter, the built up momentum through the north Atlantic holding up the -VE NAM pattern is opposed by a loss in momentum budget over the Pacific where we see flip of the north Pacific mode also flipping the north American pattern "

Hence we got the cold a few days ago. Also, support for a SSW is possible again with the Trop wave driving either from this or the next event. With the very short, built-up momentum response, there was not much Stratospheric imprinting lost. 

"The Japanese signal is important to the evolution of the Pacific ocean as it's the transitional area between land and ocean and is also important for determining the distribution of energy between the Pacific and north America. Given a similar strength AAM to what we're likely to see, I'd rather an extended north Pacific jet and a retracted north American jet ripe for AWB just off the eastern seaboard which pushes the -VE NAO and Greenland high again. That's what's currently being modelled on the mean but it's low amplitude as expected and still a fairly weak winning signal."

... 

"linearly, it's more of the AO being flipped before the north American pattern due to the pre-supportive AO pattern flip that managed to work through the base US pattern due to the north-south split and the US pattern flips to an east-west distribution that works to being a positive feedback loop for the Greenland-Iceland pattern."

Hence the support for the Greenland high though I did expect more of a Greenland-Iceland high and it ended up being a UK high that retrogressed (sort of, I've forgotten the word I mean to say) towards Greenland. 

Also very impressive from the mean, though it is 14th vs 16th for what is being forecasted now. So in the end it wasn't a really delayed risk and the mean has been supporting it for a long time. 

 

Edited January 9 by Eagle Eye

[phil nw.]

Looking at next week on gefs anomalies.We can see the cold air has moved well south into the UK by,yes,15th so right on schedule.

The second and third images the 850s and mean sea level pressure anomalies for day 10-- the end of next week(uk/Europe view),

  

In spite of the ups and downs in the differing operational runs this Wintry pattern continues to be shown.There looks to be some real snowy interest next week,but where will this be is to be decided nearer the time.

 

 

 

 

[Bricriu]

9 minutes ago, LRD said:

The last frame on the ECM won't look like that come the time. It's just computers playing around with different scenarios in an overall cold pattern. But if it's longevity you want, then you want lows to stay well south of you

Yes, but then you potentially miss out on an epic snowfall, but from an imby  perspective I'd take missing out on it, if we got a decent  northerly instead with plenty of snow showers.

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 all about 15th to 22nd

[Scott Ingham]

15 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

So Atlantic in by the 23rd, which some have signposted for a while.  Hopefully only temporary though. Much as I would love an interrupted freeze till the end of February  the Altantic  won't allow that. I hope if we do get a snow event on the 19th it's not all washed away as per lrd's suggestion. It would be nice to have it stick around for a couple of days.

If we got cold weather and snow 15th to the 23rd I’d be over the moon with that especially as February looks interesting if not more interesting with angular momentum on the rise again from a much higher base state and further weakening if not ssw higher up!

[LRD]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 all about 15th to 22nd

Complete flip the following week, unfortunately

And then the pressure anomaly is high in the vicinity of the UK but not in as promising places as it had been showing

[Bogman]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

If we got cold weather and snow 15th to the 23rd I’d be over the moon with that especially as February looks interesting if not more interesting with angular momentum on the rise again from a much higher base state and further weakening if not ssw higher up!

Interesting times ahead, and right on the coat tails of the hottest year on record.

[Kentspur]

27 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

I can see a patch of white south of that over NW Kent thankfully

[Chrisover93]

1 minute ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

A 10c range in the 850s for next Wednesday between the models just shows how tight this is. Eyes down for the 18z

ECM

GFS

ICON

GEM

 

2v2

[Bogman]

Just now, Kentspur said:

I can see a patch of white south of that over NW Kent thankfully

Think you’ll find that just a smudge that hasn’t been cleaned properly.

[northwestsnow]

Again 15th to 22nd..

EC46

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Bogman said:

Interesting times ahead, and right on the coat tails of the hottest year on record.

Agreed it’s been a throughly interesting winter to see unfold and perfect for any of us trying to learn. Still waiting for that first op to show signs of a height rise into scandi or Iceland but we are miles away yet still 

[steveinsussex]

29 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

Also that artwork is out by about 25 miles

29 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

Also that artwork is out by about 25 miles

29 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

Also that artwork is out by about 25 miles

29 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Yes

Also that artwork is out by about 25 miles

[IanT]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

If we got cold weather and snow 15th to the 23rd I’d be over the moon with that especially as February looks interesting if not more interesting with angular momentum on the rise again from a much higher base state and further weakening if not ssw higher up!

100% agreed!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Complete flip the following week, unfortunately

And then the pressure anomaly is high in the vicinity of the UK but not in as promising places as it had been showing

Yep we seem to have lost the Northern Blocking signal after the week 15th to 22nd.

This I our chance of a good cold spell 

Sun to Fri hopefully..

 

[suxer]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep we seem to have lost the Northern Blocking signal after the week 15th to 22nd.

This I our chance of a good cold spell 

Sun to Fri hopefully..

 

Yes we've been waiting for this since the failed Xmas spell...so nigh on a month

[Stephen W]

The trend to colder is clearly there in all models from early next week. What is less clear is how far north any milder incursions will push. What does seem evident to me is that uncertainty has increased a notch today regards next week and this is evident tonight in the GEFS ensembles. I think to discount the GFS isn’t sensible, the trend is for more energy to be thrown up against the cold, maybe it has overestimated this but maybe not.  I don’t think there is much clarity this evening. We just need to wait and see how this unfolds each day. It does seem as if it will be a high risk high reward scenario with some people getting very lucky and others very disappointed. The UK is in the boundary zone as usual, big differences for us living here but very small margins on a global scale.  Having lived on the south coast during my childhood, can’t tell you how many times I’ve watched rain tumbling down outside only to watch how feet of snow have fallen midlands northwards..seems like it’s that kind of scenario setting up next week.

[CoventryWeather]

Extended cluster 2 looks very similar to the extended METO update.. interesting times ahead. 

[terrier]

Did mention this earlier today but be very wary of those ECM snowfall charts. Those totals are based on basically every flake of snow falling and settling. Basically about as much use as a chocolate tea pot. 

[Bricriu]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep we seem to have lost the Northern Blocking signal after the week 15th to 22nd.

This I our chance of a good cold spell 

Sun to Fri hopefully..

 

Those ec46 seem to change so often, so I wouldn't  get hung up on them showing a less favourable outcome in fi. As long as the UKMO stick to their latest  update,  I think we will have further  opportunities for snow during the month of February 

[ANYWEATHER]

Looking more and more likely that mild weather will try  to infringe into southern parts of the uk next week, looking likely that somewhere is going to get a load ,of snow , a classic winter battleground setting up .....Enjoy the ride.

Edited January 9 by ANYWEATHER

[Hammer50]

It could still flip back as quick as that .

[Continental Climate]

15 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

If we got cold weather and snow 15th to the 23rd I’d be over the moon with that especially as February looks interesting if not more interesting with angular momentum on the rise again from a much higher base state and further weakening if not ssw higher up!

If I get snow and cold from 15th to the 23rd and couple that with the 5 days of snow on the ground I had early December then I will count this winter as a triumph. Regardless of what happens in February.