Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[IDO]

Hoping the early morning crew...if any of you bother...are the harbingers of better news. I would say that the uncertainty from D5-6 is clear and that we cannot rule out anything. 

The GFS 18z shows that even with a poor run it can get some surface highs in a favourable position with wedges to maybe get something out of the NW to SE diving jet. D9:

[Rocheydub]

15 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

Comment just above you says much better at 132 than I read yours. Confused.com here. 

And it all went the shape of the pear on that run. I didn't see the comment above. I said what I saw on the charts.

[Tim Bland]

Snow amount / line next Thursday 12z Vs 18z…I’ll take that as an upgrade !

[northwestsnow]

A snowy NWly day 9..

[Thomas Green]

200+ hours GFS 18Z plays with a NW-SE alignment of lows out in the atlantic 

[kold weather]

Terrible run for the south in *semi* realustic timeframe, but more than passable further north. Considering how rough it looked at 144hrs though the GFS ends up making a still decent pattern with disrupting lows. Snow-cover would hang around a while I'd say in such a pattern for central areas and maybe get very cold there.

Edited January 9 by kold weather

[Mark Parsons]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Oh but it does for many.

Usually areas as a default, probably totally wrong and over cooked........

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's several op runs in last 48 hrs. GEM and Jma last night and 2 runs on the bounce from gfs. The ensembles on 12z gfs also. Cold still favoured, but the trend towards something milder has actually gained traction in the last 24hours. That doesn't mean it will happen, but it's certainly deserves discussion and comment

An op run is one run out of a lot of runs. No disrespect but unless you see a trend in the ensembles for a mild outcome then it hasn’t really gained traction. In the last 48 hours we’re talking about 1 model in 4 showing a crap run depending on it being 0z 6z 12z 18z and this is perfectly normal in the lead up to a complicated cold pattern. The point I’m making is yeah discuss it if you want but it’s not really strong enough evidence to suggest we have a trend. That’s misleading. Im a balanced poster if I saw big swings in the ensembles I’d call them out myself. Anyway everyone has a different way of doing things I’m just trying to help newbies out as forecasting not taking means and ensembles into account is for me a mistake looking forward 

[northwestsnow]

It's not going to sustain though ,not with a raging +AO ..

Still, I'm not sure if GFS has been high on something for the last few days or alternatively it's slamming Euro into the ground...

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

To be fair there's a bit more to it turning colder with chance of snow from 15th through to 22nd than just gdsm products. 

We have had a good attack on the strat from a warming event not too long ago, we have the Canadian warming and we are in an El Nino winter, not to mention the met office have been hinting at this for a long time. As well as a few other factors at play.

Mate every man and his dog have been hinting at the middle of this month being the time when things get much colder with chance of snow. Just they don't harp on about it every 5 minutes trying to get the accolades. Constantly changing the criteria of 'accuracy' themselves through carefull wording.

Even I predicted this from before Christmas but was it skill?? Was it chuff it was just me scanning the available tools and data and coming to an educated guess.

Just give it a rest it is becoming very tiresome. 

I haven’t claimed anything of the sort like that I’m an amateur forecaster who’s managed to guess a date 3 weeks in advance that would go wrong usually 99/100 times. Your educated guess is exactly what I’ve done so I don’t know where your getting this from tbh?

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A snowy NWly day 9..

It's not totally a lost cause but this is a JFF post, surely UKMO and ECM aren't both wrong v GFS

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

This pub run doesn't see positive uppers getting any further north than around a line from Manchester to Hull before diving South again.

Better than the 12z and again highlights the risk of battleground snow.

I still think the cold will stay much further South than what the GFS is showing regardless.  Interesting times  

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A snowy NWly day 9..

Isn’t that a south easterly?

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

An op run is one run out of a lot of runs. No disrespect but unless you see a trend in the ensembles for a mild outcome then it hasn’t really gained traction. In the last 48 hours we’re talking about 1 model in 4 showing a crap run depending on it being 0z 6z 12z 18z and this is perfectly normal in the lead up to a complicated cold pattern. The point I’m making is yeah discuss it if you want but it’s not really strong enough evidence to suggest we have a trend. That’s misleading. Im a balanced poster if I saw big swings in the ensembles I’d call them out myself. Anyway everyone has a different way of doing things I’m just trying to help newbies out as forecasting not taking means and ensembles into account is for me a mistake looking forward 

We've learnt hard lessons over the years that you dismiss a run at your peril. Time and time again I've seen one run pick up a trend, it looks isolated at the time only for others to follow. We need proper sustained heights over Greenland. If we don't get them I'd bet my bottom dollar that cold will unravel at record pace 

[joggs]

Well, bed for me. I've been a little concerned over the GFS last few days(mentioned on here), and I Personally can't ignore it despite what others say.

Like most say. It's going to turn cold with snow chances and fI on the models do change alot,so that's a positive.

Ideally I'd love the full on northerly option to clear the south coast(less likely) to keep us all in the game.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

[Allseasons-Si]

I think the gfs needs a safehouse

It does get the jet further south though,...bless it

so there could be some surprises from the mediocre run

even though i support Man Utd,this model reminds me of it ATM

over to the overnight crew,...i am out

night guys.

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

Usually areas as a default, probably totally wrong and over cooked........

It shows 24 hours of continuous snowfall for quite a large area. May be overdone and may well not play out like that but it doesn’t mean that GFS run is terrible just because this forum is full of southern bias.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Isn’t that a south easterly?

I'm not sure actually...

Probably counted about 10 different wind directions on 18z !!

 

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

We've learnt hard lessons over the years that you dismiss a run at your peril. Time and time again I've seen one run pick up a trend, it looks isolated at the time only for others to follow. We need proper sustained heights over Greenland. If we don't get them I'd bet my bottom dollar that cold will unravel at record pace 

Well that’s your opinion and time will tell but for me looking at everything from all models and signals I’m confident for next week

[Geordiesnow]

I get in those wanting a long spell of cold and snowy weather might be dissapointed in this run but it is slightly better, brings the cold in a tad quicker, quite a potent northerly at that, snow showers packing into northern and eastern Scotland possibly eastern areas of England also for a time.

I looked at the low heights between Svalbard and Greenland at around 108 to 120 hours and the blues(PV) enters Greenland which just collapses the block like a balloon and the consequence of that is to collapse the northerly very quickly.

It's a small detail but the UKMO/ECM does not do that, it's something that could go either way I feel. Hopefully we can get some upgrades with the initial northerly and get the cold in even quicker if we can.

[Sweatyman]

6 minutes ago, ribster said:

Louise Lear is such a tease! Love it!

yeah but 7 degrees still on Tuesday according to that!

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, SizzlingHeat said:

18Z is out to 3 hours and the high is 1.5 miles further west compared with the 12Z

I missed the first 2 hrs  

Was  the 1.5 mile shift evenly spread over those 3 hrs ? Asking for a friend. 

[MJB]

Easterly en route ???

[Johnp]

Snow for the south now.

Messy, but ironically a wintry run.

[GokouD]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oh but it does for many.

If this is still what happens with a horrible run like this, I feel pretty good about the snow chances next week!