Moans, ramps and banter

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

We’re looking into February, possibly even back end.

I’m personally looking forward to spring now. Only so much rain and gloom one can take.

The back end of February - no thanks!

Let's hope the modeling can expedite the next chase but nothing so far apart from some tenous signs on EC46.

 

[Continental Climate]

The vast majority of the country will see no snow by next thur/fi, which is a bitter blow considering the length of the chase. Things may look better by beginning of Feb however we all know how difficult it is to get out of zonality once it sets in. I'm not throwing the towel in for winter but jan I think is now finished. I just hope i see something on Tuesday for my location. 

[shawty1984]

8 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

Oh please…. Jeez

 

northerners hate the south getting even a flurry of snow; which is much less than northern counties get each year 

No, what we hate is people thinking we get loads of snow, living in North East England, I hardly ever get snow in Teesside.

[JoeShmoe]

I see a lot of the snake oil salesman have now disappeared, from the mad thread in their hunt for likes, we await their return when one model shows blocking at T+300 to start their patter all over again 

folks like kasim and Cheshire freeze were spot on and such a shame they get shot down relentlessly for being realistic and urging caution 

I have said a few times the last few winters teleconnections are like chasing ghosts , time and time again, in the UK, whatever they say gets overridden by other factors upstream. Yes it’s great to study them but they only provide guidance at a broad macro level 

we are truly are in new style of winter  with AGW, may as well just accept it 

roll on spring 

Edited January 13 by JoeShmoe

[SLEETY]

59 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

We’re looking into February, possibly even back end.

I’m personally looking forward to spring now. Only so much rain and gloom one can take.

Writing off the entire winter because the op runs bring in the Atlantic mid january 

 

I'm also quoting this post in a few weeks, not as if the set-up after this week would take much for it to go back to cold again. 

[winterfreak]

I stand by my assertion that despite all the money, the computing power and the expertise of human forecasting, the models are no better than tea leaves. Rarely are they right. ‘Just for fun’ they should be labelled with 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Writing off the entire winter because the op runs bring in the Atlantic mid january 

 

I'm also quoting this post in a few weeks, not as if the set-up after this week would take much for it to go back to cold again. 

You got to laugh ..

[noggin]

1 hour ago, John88B said:

I don't share much of the despondency in here this morning. The up and coming week offers very cold temperatures, plenty of snow for Scotland and the far north, a band of snow coming from the north west affecting Northern Ireland, north Wales, the north west and possibly getting as far as the midlands then a midweek band of snow that could affect southern England and possibly south Wales.

If all this comes off I would say it would be a decent end to a pretty decent cold spell

But we were to have ice days and blizzards, even in our neck of the woods. The Met Office outlooks were full of wintry delights. All we have now is a few measly frosts. As far as I am concerned, this is the biggest and dampest meteorological squib that I have seen in nearly 20 years on this forum.

The only positive that I can take from this monstrous episode is a lesson about not believing anything until it happens!
 

 

[wolvesfan]

I’ve spent years model watching craving the winters from my childhood. 
I’ve accepted they seldom materialize in the uk,2010 being an exception. 

The models are mere cogs in the larger forecasting machine and mustn’t be taken too seriously past day  4/5.Too many hanging on there every run only to suffer when the inevitable happens and the output is watered down,when it comes into the reliable timeframe. 

Cold winters unfortunately are becoming a thing of the past.The models merely indicating what’s likely to happen,not the driver. 

[Gowon]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

You got to laugh ..

Morning mate.. I hope you didn't tell your mate in McDonalds we're gonna get a prolonged freeze.

[noggin]

8 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I stand by my assertion that despite all the money, the computing power and the expertise of human forecasting, the models are no better than tea leaves. Rarely are they right. ‘Just for fun’ they should be labelled with 

I agree. I feel silly for having fallen for it yet again.

[Spah1]

Extremely disappointing after such a big chase to have a Greenie High for 3 days. 
Congrats to those who predicted this pattern weeks away. I have to admit I was hoping for a 2/3 week cold spell . 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Gowon said:

Morning mate.. I hope you didn't tell your mate in McDonalds we're gonna get a prolonged freeze.

Haha ..

No way !! I said the cold was coming , and ...

i think the cold is coming

I know people are disappointed,  it could have been much better ...

It's not a wipe out there will be lots of beautiful frosty landscapes if you have countryside, get out and about ,enjoy it  

The Atlantic will probably break in Fri or Sat hopefully it won't be a prolonged visit,  in the much maligned ec 46 we trust !

[Hotspur62]

If this time next week things are turning milder the question for me is if we don’t get a full on SSW will that be the reason why this upcoming cold spell ended sooner than many expected.Would that have overridden all the other teleconnections?I don’t have the knowledge to answer that but maybe others do?

Of course things may have changed during the week but as things stand would be curious to know the reasoning.Still got February to go which historically is UKS best chance of snow over last 10 years.Would love to have a good old fashioned scandi High

Edited January 13 by Hotspur62
Typo error

[weathercold]

I think this must go down as one of the biggest epic busts in NW history.

Thinking back only two weeks ago to some extremely exciting Greenland blocking projections with scope for bitter cold and snow until late Jan and into Feb, often with rock solid ensembles.

We’ve been patient after all, a crud half winter, washout December, record breaking mild Xmas….all leading to mid Jan and the epic cold spell.

Historic…epic …coldest since 2018…the list of superlatives were endless.

As the ‘cold spell’ ticked down two days before the magic 15th date - booom it all fell apart. No snow for most, temps above freezing for most (in bleak mid winter),  next week is a total blink, non descript chilly few days.

You have to laugh - we’ve chased this for 2 weeks and fallen at the final hurdle.

To compound matters the models are about as bad as they could look for late Jan and into Feb, supported across the model suite and backed up beautifully by the E46.

I don’t think many of us could have predicted this - what’ an epic bust.

Personally now looking forward to spring, longer days and warmer with hopefully sunny days too. Winter 23/24 another joke of a ‘winter’.

Ticking down nicely to Spring, not that far away

Edited January 13 by weathercold

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Perhaps the meteorological chancellor of the exchequer forgot to budget for it?  That's another term you will  find in those discussions, "budget".  "The budget of angular momentum"  etc

I find it a load of absolute technobabble to me, to put it bluntly.

Another thing is that this is looking at it from the macro level, can you apply it the micro level given the size of the British Isles?  Analogues are given but the number of times I have seen the given years, I can see they gave different weather for the UK. 

I think it's the key when referencing the UK into the global movement of weather systems.

Micro v Macro

Peeps quickly forgot that Summer's reliance on them were a bust as well. 

UK out on its own.

[tom_f123]

Without a doubt one of the biggest busts in NW model viewing history 

Edited January 13 by tom_f123

[The Northern Ramper]

Just now, tom_f123 said:

Without a doubt one of the biggest busts in NW model viewing history 

It really isn’t, we get let down like this most winters.

The time that Ecm dropped a frigid easterly at t72, now that was a flop of all flops.

[Weather-history]

55 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

I see a lot of the snake oil salesman have now disappeared, from the mad thread in their hunt for likes, we await their return when one model shows blocking at T+300 to start their patter all over again 

 

Didn't one poster say " It sees a brick wall but models/simulates attempting to drive straight through it anyway."

Going off today's 0z runs, it looks someone forgot to apply mortar between the bricks!

[slater]

The Oscar goes to the ECM who has upset everyone this weekend 

Edited January 13 by slater

[I remember Atlantic 252]

29 minutes ago, weathercold said:

I think this must go down as one of the biggest epic busts in NW history.

Thinking back only two weeks ago to some extremely exciting Greenland blocking projections with scope for bitter cold and snow until late Jan and into Feb, often with rock solid ensembles.

We’ve been patient after all, a crud half winter, washout December, record breaking mild Xmas….all leading to mid Jan and the epic cold spell.

Historic…epic …coldest since 2018…the list of superlatives were endless.

As the ‘cold spell’ ticked down two days before the magic 15th date - booom it all fell apart. No snow for most, temps above freezing for most (in bleak mid winter),  next week is a total blink, non descript chilly few days.

You have to laugh - we’ve chased this for 2 weeks and fallen at the final hurdle.

To compound matters the models are about as bad as they could look for late Jan and into Feb, supported across the model suite and backed up beautifully by the E46.

I don’t think many of us could have predicted this - what’ an epic bust.

Personally now looking forward to spring, longer days and warmer with hopefully sunny days too. Winter 23/24 another joke of a ‘winter’.

Ticking down nicely to Spring, not that far away

Never underestimate the jet/Atlantic, it's January, Atlantic powers through, now April is different, we'll get prolonged N/E'ly then

Edited January 13 by I remember Atlantic 252

[JoeShmoe]

The GFS has come out of this looking good, the UKMO less so

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

13 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well, that's a pretty awful bunch of 0z suites.  I've scoured the lot looking for chinks of light, but there's pretty much nothing to get excited about beyond day 6.  The good news is that we have a very cold and dry week coming up, and those lucky enough to live in the north of Scotland are going to see a lot of snow.

But, as the last week has shown, models can pick up a new signal and flip quickly, so let's hope the background drivers pick up on something new and deliver on the late January/February promise they've been hinting at.  

Other than that, there's going to be some beautiful winter weather around, so get out and enjoy it.  Charge your batteries for the next chase (don't pretend you won't be back!!).

 

At least all the roads can now reopen locally after the shocking flooding!

[danthetan]

1 hour ago, Harveyslugger said:

Monday looks decent tho it's a straight north and in the past Pembrokeshire danglers are always underestimated by models.so hopefully I see some snow

I haven't seen anything of note snow wise from a dangler since 2004 maybe 2010 or 2009 I can't fully remember, rare as hens teeth these days. Used to be more common when I was in school. 

[TallPaul]

Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang  NW and said she heard there was a snowstorm on the way... well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't!"