Moans, ramps and banter

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

Around -8C this morning but still no snow this year so far. Beautifully sunny and dry though.

Ironically, we did get a few cm of snow at the last cold breakdown on Dec 30th when the forecast was for rain. And tomorrow is another cold breakdown day so perhaps it will be snow again for 24hrs ...

[RJBingham]

Cold blip nearly over, early spring, here we come, picked the perfect week to get away.

 

 

 

[Wold Topper]

Managed to get in on the snowy action this morning in East Yorkshire, couple of pics from my commute

[Matty88]

I was saying that it would be foolish to write off a snowless winter for us in EA bearing in mind its only January - but the charts are insisting on that same Greenland block high slipping off into Europe and anchoring itself - which ends up drawing up Iberian warmth and storms for the next 2 weeks at least...  Honestly i'm beginning to wish this weeks set-up never happened!!! LOL 

I suppose I cannot complain we have had a week of -6 temps, bright sun and frozen ground? Sod it I'll complain!!! lol  the snow gods are not looking down on us here in Southern England

[raz.org.rain]

13 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

I was saying that it would be foolish to write off a snowless winter for us in EA bearing in mind its only January - but the charts are insisting on that same Greenland block high slipping off into Europe and anchoring itself - which ends up drawing up Iberian warmth and storms for the next 2 weeks at least...  Honestly i'm beginning to wish this weeks set-up never happened!!! LOL 

I suppose I cannot complain we have had a week of -6 temps, bright sun and frozen ground? Sod it I'll complain!!! lol  the snow gods are not looking down on us here in Southern England

It's sounding like there's some expectation that a SSW is on its way which will deliver some (more) cold. However, it also sounds like we've already had a SSW, but it didn't perform as expected for the British Isles. As you say, it's entirely likely that these synoptics will just be favourable to a much earlier spring instead.

[raz.org.rain]

If you live out in the countryside like me, you've probably noticed the farmers have started back up again. Plenty of tractors running about, but none of the delightful smells just yet. Usually in early spring they start working the fields early in the morning when it's still dark out, that's how you know spring has arrived here.

[markyo]

8 hours ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Depends what you define as 'Winterless' I suppose - I'm sure Sheffield has experienced some freeezing weather just like the rest of us recently, albeit I suspect your dissatisfaction is at the lack of snowfall(?) 

It is interesting how we're separated by just 20 miles but you didn't get much - those Pennines act as a shield don't they. (It works the other way round too of course - yorks gets a coating but doesn't make it over to my side!)

It has been the same for last several years, the odd colder interlude but thats it just like this year, a few days of proper weather do not make a winter, just like in summer, a week of heatwave doesn't make a summer apparently. 

I know Delph well, used to live at Grasscroft. Always good hunting ground for a bit of proper weather.

3 hours ago, RJBingham said:

Cold blip nearly over, early spring, here we come, picked the perfect week to get away.

 

 

 

Lets hope not, we need a proper Winter for once!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

If I can't get the real deal ...

[reef]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

If you live out in the countryside like me, you've probably noticed the farmers have started back up again. Plenty of tractors running about, but none of the delightful smells just yet. Usually in early spring they start working the fields early in the morning when it's still dark out, that's how you know spring has arrived here.

More like after weeks of everything being sodden, they're getting done what they can before we get the wet and windy weather again!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still cannot understand those members especially in Midlands/SE, that wanted the low to go into France, to keep the cold longer, again it hasn't worked as it's turning mild with a whimper and snow free for many in central/SE

when cold is in place, said many times, do not want the lows going south

[Bristawl Si]

12-14c and sunny intervals forecast for here, early-mid next week, with a breezy south westerly. Luverly

[Freeze]

36 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still cannot understand those members especially in Midlands/SE, that wanted the low to go into France, to keep the cold longer, again it hasn't worked as it's turning mild with a whimper and snow free for many in central/SE

when cold is in place, said many times, do not want the lows going south

Well for me, I'd rather risk it going into France to prolong the cold, or not, rather than it hitting further north and creating a washout with rain down here. Unless it runs further south we have no chance on the south coast.

[SunnyG]

48 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

12-14c and sunny intervals forecast for here, early-mid next week, with a breezy south westerly. Luverly

Careful with praising mild weather on this thread....

[LetItSnow!]

Those mild winds are very moisture laden though so do be careful for hopes of it being sunny!

[AWD]

52 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

12-14c and sunny intervals forecast for here, early-mid next week, with a breezy south westerly. Luverly

I think you maybe a bit optimistic there.  We can but hope, but the current forecast looks more like the below;

There’s definitely looking likely to be a stormy finish to the weekend, and quite possibly another (albeit not so stormy for us) bout of wind around Tuesday/Wednesday.  Mild definetly, but I do expect a rather lot of cloud cover in between any rainfall, at least until towards the end of the week.

[cyclonic happiness]

Why is it so easy for cold to be pushed out of the way nowadays?

In the 80s, cold blocks would put up a real fight to hold back the mild and wet weather, and we'd have snow events which would last for hours.

And sometimes the cold would win, and we'd be kept cold.

But now, it's as if all the rules have been changed.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

33 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Why is it so easy for cold to be pushed out of the way nowadays?

In the 80s, cold blocks would put up a real fight to hold back the mild and wet weather, and we'd have snow events which would last for hours.

And sometimes the cold would win, and we'd be kept cold.

But now, it's as if all the rules have been changed.

Feb '94! but nowadays Atlantic storms through

[SunnyG]

After subzero temps, 10c will feel like shorts and sandals lmao

[Alderc 2.0]

Just another 4weeks until the worst of winter is past barring something exceptional. Another 8wks and temperatures pushing towards 20C are possible in the right conditions. 

[wolvesfan]

3 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Why is it so easy for cold to be pushed out of the way nowadays?

In the 80s, cold blocks would put up a real fight to hold back the mild and wet weather, and we'd have snow events which would last for hours.

And sometimes the cold would win, and we'd be kept cold.

But now, it's as if all the rules have been changed.

Scandinavian high pressure. 
lot harder to shift than the faux Greenland high we’ve just witnessed. 
a similar 80’s set up could be round the corner according to latest model runs. 

[Don]

Very frustrating that the deep cold over Scandinavia is going to get blasted away by the Atlantic next week!  It would seem that February is looking less promising for cold weather fans now?!  Those of a milder/warmer disposition have never had it better and this is likely to continue in their favour moving forward! 

[johncam]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

Very frustrating that the deep cold over Scandinavia is going to get blasted away by the Atlantic next week!  It would seem that February is looking less promising for cold weather fans now?!  Those of a milder/warmer disposition have never had it better and this is likely to continue in their favour moving forward! 

Yep as you say Don unless something shows up soon in the models, first half of Feb looking on the mild side. Anything second half really needs to be very cold for any snow that falls to last the day out. 

[StretfordEnd1996]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

Very frustrating that the deep cold over Scandinavia is going to get blasted away by the Atlantic next week!  It would seem that February is looking less promising for cold weather fans now?!  Those of a milder/warmer disposition have never had it better and this is likely to continue in their favour moving forward! 

I don't think this at all - the back end of February for example is 4-6 weeks away. I could travel the world in that time. I could change jobs. It's an eternity. Early Feb yes okay we'd need stuff to change pretty quickly but while many posts are now "We're beginning to run out of time" type posts, I actually take a different stance - we've got plenty of time yet for something significant. Some of the most famous cold spells in the decades gone by have happened in the back end of Feb.
 

3 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Why is it so easy for cold to be pushed out of the way nowadays?

In the 80s, cold blocks would put up a real fight to hold back the mild and wet weather, and we'd have snow events which would last for hours.

And sometimes the cold would win, and we'd be kept cold.

But now, it's as if all the rules have been changed.

Getting the cold in in the first place is what is often my main concern  My 'acceptable' minimal duration of a cold spell is a good 3-5 days of low single digit temps (or lower), preferably with a bit of snow on the ground. This spell has met that expectation. Of course it depends on the pattern etc - if its a brief Northerly I'd adjust my expectation accordingly. 

I suppose the cold spells that are hard to shift are the ones which boast large amounts of blocking northwards, and naturally as that doesn't happen often in this day and age, the cold spells can quickly finish


A lot of posts in the model threads at the moment appear to be looking towards a Scandi high which has presented a possibility in a few runs in the last few days. So far it doesn't seem to quite materialise properly and from what I can see a likely evolution would be for HP to be dominant but often tend to rest close or over the UK in the 7-15 day timeframe. Frosty nights potentially.

Perhaps, actually, the potential HP over Scandi is a bit of a red herring - some more longer range models such as this below (which yes change every day and I take it with a pinch of salt, hence I won't post it in the model thread) show HP in the week 3/4 period as being more Atlantic based pushing towards Greenland. At least if this type of thing was to come off, it's not like a Scandi high where there's a worry about other pieces of the jigsaw coming together - a mid-Atlantic ridge even a weak flimsy one would still likely induce some sort of colder NW/N'ly incursion potentially. 

ECMWF 42 also shows a similar evolution with this HP over UK tending to bias towards W/NWly as time goes on.

[StretfordEnd1996]

22 minutes ago, johncam said:

Yep as you say Don unless something shows up soon in the models, first half of Feb looking on the mild side. Anything second half really needs to be very cold for any snow that falls to last the day out. 

Yes agreed. Some of the more severe memorable Feb cold spells we've had are often looked back on with great memories - and I don't dis them just because the sun thinned the cover out quite quickly. 

But lesser cold spells i.e. a brief fall and cover yes I suppose it can melt much quicker than if it did in Dec/Jan. 

[Somerset girl]

20 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I don't think this at all - the back end of February for example is 4-6 weeks away. I could travel the world in that time. I could change jobs. It's an eternity. Early Feb yes okay we'd need stuff to change pretty quickly but while many posts are now "We're beginning to run out of time" type posts, I actually take a different stance - we've got plenty of time yet for something significant. Some of the most famous cold spells in the decades gone by have happened in the back end of Feb.
 

Getting the cold in in the first place is what is often my main concern  My 'acceptable' minimal duration of a cold spell is a good 3-5 days of low single digit temps (or lower), preferably with a bit of snow on the ground. This spell has met that expectation. Of course it depends on the pattern etc - if its a brief Northerly I'd adjust my expectation accordingly. 

I suppose the cold spells that are hard to shift are the ones which boast large amounts of blocking northwards, and naturally as that doesn't happen often in this day and age, the cold spells can quickly finish


A lot of posts in the model threads at the moment appear to be looking towards a Scandi high which has presented a possibility in a few runs in the last few days. So far it doesn't seem to quite materialise properly and from what I can see a likely evolution would be for HP to be dominant but often tend to rest close or over the UK in the 7-15 day timeframe. Frosty nights potentially.

Perhaps, actually, the potential HP over Scandi is a bit of a red herring - some more longer range models such as this below (which yes change every day and I take it with a pinch of salt, hence I won't post it in the model thread) show HP in the week 3/4 period as being more Atlantic based pushing towards Greenland. At least if this type of thing was to come off, it's not like a Scandi high where there's a worry about other pieces of the jigsaw coming together - a mid-Atlantic ridge even a weak flimsy one would still likely induce some sort of colder NW/N'ly incursion potentially. 

ECMWF 42 also shows a similar evolution with this HP over UK tending to bias towards W/NWly as time goes on.

The winter is nearly over isn't correct as to my mind spring doesn't start until 19th March , not the first . Also we can have snow  in March as well as 18C so to say its all over is premature at best .

I think looking too far ahead ( 2 weeks away ) and fretting over what we can't control isn't healthy . I'm enjoying the sunshine , the cold not so much due to health reasons but there is such beauty in these kinds of days that I think ah well enjoy the beauty of it and don't worry about the cold too much .

I understand though the worry of more rain and potentially damaging winds and I hope its not as bad as it could be . 

It's a chilly 2C here in sunny Somerset at the moment the sharp frost not even melting on the cars at the front of the house .