General summer chat

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, Methuselah said:

And sixteen consecutive days at 32C or above will, I think, will stay top-of-the-league for many more years (if not decades). 

That really was an absurd period looking back at the stats. Coming during a period where summer temperatures were lower as a whole anyways makes it even more so. As impressive as the dry spells of 18 and 22 were, neither managed such a prolonged heatwave, even if 22 was able to go nuclear with that 40c in July and 18 be consistently good for a nearly absurd length of time.

 

[East Lancs Rain]

14 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I have the Heathrow stats for the summer of 1980 and June and July both had an average high of 19.7C, August had 22.1C. The highest temperature of the summer was 29C reached twice, once in June and once in August. July topped out at 28C

 

This day had a high of just 15C, as did the day before. This period had severe thunderstorms, particularly across north-west Kent. Proves that you don't need heat for severe thunderstorms.

There were three days in July that only topped out around 15C, two of them consecutive, on the 9th and 10th. From the 4th to the 18th the temperature failed to reach 20C.

Conversely, this was the hottest day that reached 28C. Goes to show you how times have changed. We've seen this exact same pattern and reached the mid-thirties and higher.

A lot of these synoptics we see sometimes and they produce such different temperaures now. Northeasterlies that once gave 15C days give 18C days. Southerlies that once gave 30C days now give 35C days. Makes me sad but that's just my own opinion. Some may be overjoyed to not be able to reach those depths (seemingly).

 

Months like this, and the pre-1988 UK climate fascinates me. I hear these old stories of London and the UK with the cold, grim weather and it almost plays like a story book. This cold grim place, pre modern architecture, less skyscrapers, more snow - I probably sound like I'm talking about my *** but a lot of weather seems bland nowadays. I think there was a lot of bleak weather then as there was today but there seemed to be variability. If summer was terrible, there appeared to be tons of storms and you'd probably get loads of snow at least once in the winter. Now it's like a perpetual autumn with decent snow every couple of years punctuated by heat spikes of 35-40C! 

Hope this wasn't too off topic. I mean it is a general chat about summer.

 

Interesting. Sounds like a typical summer in Lancashire today! The UK had some shocking summers in the 80’s. I wonder what the average daytime high was in London during July 1988 (one of the coldest July’s on record), where the highest temperature all month was just 22°C. Many places failed to even record a high of 20C all month, let alone average it. Makes me wonder how and some of the summers in Lancashire were back then! July 2020 was like July 1988 here, did not even reach 20°C until the final two days. Absolutely atrocious even for here, as the average July high here is about 20°C. And even then, I remember the afternoon of 31st July 2020 was in the high 20’s but… cloudy. The morning was sunny though.

 

I think many Londoners these days have become too spoilt by their recent good summers. These days they moan when it’s 24C and a bit cloudy… If Summer 2023 had occurred in London in the 80’s it would probably have been considered a pretty decent summer.

7 hours ago, SunSean said:

Cor yeah, I can't go to any thread now without the climate alarmist doom-mongering! Thank the lord for the ignore button, makes me stay out of the arguments as much as I can try to 

Anyways, I do feel that Spring & Summer 2024 will be a good one with plenty of sunshine! Is a Spring 2020/Summer 1976 combo too much to ask? Lol.

I would like to feel your optimism, but I feel we’re overdue for a 2007/2012 repeat. I’d personally love to see a repeat of spring 2020 but summer 1976 would be too hot for me. Would prefer a cooler summer like maybe 2013 or 2021.

 

The ideal summer for me would be to be mostly dry, plenty of sunshine and highs of 20-23°C most days.

 

Something like these temps with below average rain and well above average sunshine would be perfect for me (add about 3 degrees on for down south).

February: 9°/2°

March: 12°/4°

April: 15°/6°

May: 17°/8°

June: 19°/11°

July: 22°/14°

August: 21°/13°

September: 18°/11°

October: 15°/9°

6 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

It'd be fine it certain posters didn't descend into having a full-on meltdown (pun intended) about climate change as soon as another poster shows that they aren't prepared to adopt the same doomer, apocalyptic mindset. 

I'm not keen to get into the nuances of the debate here, because it'd take an age to cover everything needed. Yes, the climate is obviously changing. However, the level of preachiness and condescension I've just been reading in here is unbelievable. Cool it with the sense of moral superiority, folks! It's attitudes like that which push people away from caring about climate change, because they're made to feel guilt-tripped by such preaching types, for simply just existing and living their life.  

Isn't there a specific climate change thread, anyway!?

Now...Summer 2024...finger's crossed for sunnier and drier than average! Temps, I couldn't really give a monkey's about if the other two aforementioned conditions manifest, because as high summer 2023 showed, the "CET hIgHeR tHaN aVeRaGe" means diddly squat to actual summer weather enjoyment when its cloudy and rainy a massive % of the time.

I agree, unfortunately the same person keeps bringing it up and mentions it in about half of thier posts. It is starting to get rather tiresome.

1 hour ago, Methuselah said:

And sixteen consecutive days at 32C or above will, I think, will stay top-of-the-league for many more years (if not decades). 

I hope you’re right. I wouldn’t want a summer that hot. 18-24°C is the most comfortable temperature range in summer for me.

[raz.org.rain]

6 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I would like to feel your optimism, but I feel we’re overdue for a 2007/2012 repeat. I’d personally love to see a repeat of spring 2020 but summer 1976 would be too hot for me. Would prefer a cooler summer like maybe 2013 or 2021.

 

2023 probably was the 2007/2012 repeat. Given the changes we've incurred since then, that's likely as bad as it gets these days. Also when you consider we supposedly had all the right setups for a 2010 deep blast of Arctic air, and yet all we get out of it is a week of below average temps, it's fair to assume that such patterns will struggle immensely to repeat themselves against background forces such as the consequences of termination shock and increasingly persistent Iberian highs.

[cheese]

2023 was kind of our 2007/2012 repeat imo, at least in terms of exceptional rainfall. At least up north July 2023 was right up there with June 2007 and June 2012 (I know July 2007 was the wetter month down south). And it's interesting that 2007, 2012 and 2023 all saw the weather improve significantly in August after very poor Julys. 

Edited January 18 by cheese

[Rob 79812010]

14 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

2023 probably was the 2007/2012 repeat. Given the changes we've incurred since then, that's likely as bad as it gets these days. Also when you consider we supposedly had all the right setups for a 2010 deep blast of Arctic air, and yet all we get out of it is a week of below average temps, it's fair to assume that such patterns will struggle immensely to repeat themselves against background forces such as the consequences of termination shock and increasingly persistent Iberian highs.

Agree with most of what you say, but where did you get the impression that we were set up for a Jan 10 set up?? The only things I heard like that were heresay. None of the main forecasters suggested that. In any winter this would have been classed as a very cold spell. The likes of Jan 2010 are few and far between in my lifetime. Only Jan's  I remember were 1979, 1981 ish, 1985 and 2010! 1987 was brief but severe

[LetItSnow!]

8 hours ago, SunSean said:

Cor yeah, I can't go to any thread now without the climate alarmist doom-mongering! Thank the lord for the ignore button, makes me stay out of the arguments as much as I can try to 

Anyways, I do feel that Spring & Summer 2024 will be a good one with plenty of sunshine! Is a Spring 2020/Summer 1976 combo too much to ask? Lol.

There is a time and place and definitely other sections of the forum it should be focused on to, but I will say I personally don’t agree with anyone who derides his posts too much. What he says is true but some of us are more passionate about it than others. If we take issue with a subject we should be respectful, ignore a user and move on. 

15 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

2023 probably was the 2007/2012 repeat. Given the changes we've incurred since then, that's likely as bad as it gets these days. Also when you consider we supposedly had all the right setups for a 2010 deep blast of Arctic air, and yet all we get out of it is a week of below average temps, it's fair to assume that such patterns will struggle immensely to repeat themselves against background forces such as the consequences of termination shock and increasingly persistent Iberian highs.

I don’t agree that 2023 was a repeat of 2007-2012. June aside, I think even in the christmas pudding it can get worse. We were spared by the Atlantic SST anomalies which kept it warmer than it would be normally. I think some time in then rest of the decade we’ll get at least one summer to rival those infamous ones, especially if global temperatures ease back a little and we continue to see Atlantic SSTs moderate. If we can get months like August 2014, August 2017 and May 2021 then it stands to reason that while the odds are stacked against it, we could see a poor summer that persists throughout the whole season. We’ve even seen some local cold records go like June 5th, 2022 and August 5th, 2023 so we still can get a good set up but getting it to stick is tricky. But anyone who thinks it’s impossible I disagree with. 

The weather is an extremely nuanced thing and it requires a nuanced approach to understand it. And I’m not even a pro!  

[raz.org.rain]

16 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Agree with most of what you say, but where did you get the impression that we were set up for a Jan 10 set up?? The only things I heard like that were heresay. None of the main forecasters suggested that. In any winter this would have been classed as a very cold spell. The likes of Jan 2010 are few and far between in my lifetime. Only Jan's  I remember were 1979, 1981 ish, 1985 and 2010! 1987 was brief but severe

There was a whole ton of ramping up as soon as the seasonal outlooks started back in summer. A lot of people commenting how the conditions for northern blocking would provide an early 2010s style deep freeze through all three months of Twitter. It's probably why there's so much disappointment in what we've ended up with, there was definitely a lot of hype around.

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

There is a time and place and definitely other sections of the forum it should be focused on to, but I will say I personally don’t agree with anyone who derides his posts too much. What he says is true but some of us are more passionate about it than others. If we take issue with a subject we should be respectful, ignore a user and move on. 

I don’t agree that 2023 was a repeat of 2007-2012. June aside, I think even in the christmas pudding it can get worse. We were spared by the Atlantic SST anomalies which kept it warmer than it would be normally. I think some time in then rest of the decade we’ll get at least one summer to rival those infamous ones, especially if global temperatures ease back a little and we continue to see Atlantic SSTs moderate. If we can get months like August 2014, August 2017 and May 2021 then it stands to reason that while the odds are stacked against it, we could see a poor summer that persists throughout the whole season. We’ve even seen some local cold records go like June 5th, 2022 and August 5th, 2023 so we still can get a good set up but getting it to stick is tricky. But anyone who thinks it’s impossible I disagree with. 

The weather is an extremely nuanced thing and it requires a nuanced approach to understand it. And I’m not even a pro!  

It's not impossible in the same way a repeat of 1962/63 isn't impossible - but the chances are extremely low. The baseline is higher these days so getting an entire summer that's wet and cold is increasingly unlikely. Even the summers of 2007 and 2012 were only average compared to the 1961-1990 averages.

Edited January 18 by cheese

[raz.org.rain]

5 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

There is a time and place and definitely other sections of the forum it should be focused on to, but I will say I personally don’t agree with anyone who derides his posts too much. What he says is true but some of us are more passionate about it than others. If we take issue with a subject we should be respectful, ignore a user and move on. 

I don’t agree that 2023 was a repeat of 2007-2012. June aside, I think even in the christmas pudding it can get worse. We were spared by the Atlantic SST anomalies which kept it warmer than it would be normally. I think some time in then rest of the decade we’ll get at least one summer to rival those infamous ones, especially if global temperatures ease back a little and we continue to see Atlantic SSTs moderate. If we can get months like August 2014, August 2017 and May 2021 then it stands to reason that while the odds are stacked against it, we could see a poor summer that persists throughout the whole season. We’ve even seen some local cold records go like June 5th, 2022 and August 5th, 2023 so we still can get a good set up but getting it to stick is tricky. But anyone who thinks it’s impossible I disagree with. 

The weather is an extremely nuanced thing and it requires a nuanced approach to understand it. And I’m not even a pro!  

We need to consider the overall trends, which are certainly favouring warmth over cold. Of course, that doesn't eliminate cooler weather synoptics, but makes it much more difficult for them to establish and persist as they would have done in the past. I agree, there's a lot of nuance when we consider how things are changing. By that standard, I think we're overdue a summer where all three months are hot and dry, when did we last have a summer period (JJA) that didn't have at least one cooler and wetter period, and was just three straight months of dry high pressure?

[LetItSnow!]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

It's not impossible in the same way a repeat of 1962/63 isn't impossible - but the chances are extremely low. The baseline is higher these days so getting an entire summer that's wet and cold is increasingly unlikely. Even the summers of 2007 and 2012 were average compared to the 1961-1990 averages.

Yes, I know. That’s why I would expect one of the poor summers that could crop up to have one very poor month and one “modern” poor month that isn’t completely horrendous at least not temperature wise. Sort of like August 2012.

[reef]

As bad as high summer was in 2023, you cant really compare it to the really bad summers. It did after all include a 17.0C June which was also very dry and sunny.

Compare that to summers like 2007 and 2011 where all three summer months were below 15.5C on the CET and had very little in the way of heat, or 2012 which was cool, wet and dull everywhere (which 2023 wasnt).

The bad weather was condensed into July and August, so it was perceived as worse than it was. If we had a rubbish June and August but July was the better month, it wouldn't have been seen as a summer as bad as it was for example.

[East Lancs Rain]

42 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

2023 probably was the 2007/2012 repeat. Given the changes we've incurred since then, that's likely as bad as it gets these days. Also when you consider we supposedly had all the right setups for a 2010 deep blast of Arctic air, and yet all we get out of it is a week of below average temps, it's fair to assume that such patterns will struggle immensely to repeat themselves against background forces such as the consequences of termination shock and increasingly persistent Iberian highs.

 

39 minutes ago, cheese said:

2023 was kind of our 2007/2012 repeat imo, at least in terms of exceptional rainfall. At least up north July 2023 was right up there with June 2007 and June 2012 (I know July 2007 was the wetter month down south). And it's interesting that 2007, 2012 and 2023 all saw the weather improve significantly in August after very poor Julys. 

Not really, as 2007 and 2012 didn’t have the hottest June on record! Instead, they had exceptionally wet and very cool Junes. And July 2023, as bad as it was, didn’t feel record breakingly wet here, not as bad as 2012, but I guess the stats don’t lie. If we had 2 really bad summer months in the same summer, then I’d say we’d have had a 2007/2012 repeat. I’d say last summer was kind of similar to 2009, a warm, dry and sunny June, a very wet July and a mediocre August.

[cheese]

9 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

 

Not really, as 2007 and 2012 didn’t have the hottest June on record! Instead, they had exceptionally wet and very cool Junes. And July 2023, as bad as it was, didn’t feel record breakingly wet here, not as bad as 2012, but I guess the stats don’t lie. If we had 2 really bad summer months in the same summer, then I’d say we’d have had a 2007/2012 repeat. I’d say last summer was kind of similar to 2009, a warm, dry and sunny June, a very wet July and a mediocre August.

True enough regarding June 2023, that obviously sets last summer apart from 2007 and 2012. July 2023's exceptional rainfall is kind of hard to ignore though. It was the wettest summer month on record for NW England with widespread areas of 200mm+, and quite a few stations reporting 300mm+. As wet as 2007 and 2012 were, they weren't quite that wet!

July 2012 was worse than July 2023 in terms of temperature, but July 2012 wasn't as wet.

Edited January 18 by cheese

[Frigid]

July 2023 saw 159mm rainfall and didn't exceed 25C here.. very rare to see with years normally topping 32C+ in July. In contrast the year prior saw highs of 38C and 40mm rain. 

Now that I think of it, if you swapped the first half of June 2022 with 2023 the summer as a whole would've been remarkably cool. 2023 saw two major heatwaves which led to two record breaking warm months, no comparison with some of the cooler years like 2007 and 2012.

[LetItSnow!]

6 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I wonder what the average daytime high was in London during July 1988 (one of the coldest July’s on record), where the highest temperature all month was just 22°C. M

It was actually 20.0C, 0.3C warmer than July 1988 - but July 1988 had a lower highest temperature of just 23C. July 1988 was also wetter and windier.

July 1980 had more shockingly cool days but had some warmer weather at the end, wheras July 1988 tended to be generally be around 18-21C and had less extreme maxima (though the lowest max was 16.4C on the 3rd so still shockingly poor). There's so sunshine data so I can't speak as to what was worse. I think the difference between them was July 1980 was a blocked, raw, cloudy type of cool, whereas July 1988 was a Atlantic driven, wet, cloudy type of poor. Not a lot in it but there is a slight difference.

Compare that to July 2023 which only had a low max of 18.7C on the 4th, an average high of 22.8C and most days tending to be between 20-24C. It was also drier in London than both July 1980 and July 1988. It had a similar monthly high to July 1980 with 29.7C on the 7th. Further north, a different story as I've heard but for London and the south-east it wasn't anywhere near the poor Julys of the 1980s.

[B87]

On 17/01/2024 at 16:18, cheeky_monkey said:

BC climate is only comparable to the UK along the coast ..interior BC has a totally different climate as it is set within the Rocky Mountains ..places like Lytton Kelowna and Kamloops have a hot almost arid type climate in summer 

Isn't coastal BC horrifically poor compared to the UK at the same latitude? Port Hardy has a diabolical climate.

[raz.org.rain]

16 minutes ago, B87 said:

Isn't coastal BC horrifically poor compared to the UK at the same latitude? Port Hardy has a diabolical climate.

Depends. Vancouver Island has a Csb warm-summer Mediterranean climate at 49°N. 

[B87]

2 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

Depends. Vancouver Island has a Csb warm-summer Mediterranean climate at 49°N. 

Not many parts of the UK at 49N though. Jersey isn't too dissimilar to Victoria, with slightly warmer winters and slightly cooler summers.

[Catbrainz]

10 hours ago, B87 said:

Isn't coastal BC horrifically poor compared to the UK at the same latitude? Port Hardy has a diabolical climate.

I would say slightly worse overall but not drastically different. Tofino at 49N reminds me of a coastal west Wales climate at 52Nish or so and Vancouver at 49N reminds me a lot of Weymouth at 51N. Prince Rupert at 54N reminds me of Fort William Scotland at 57N and while not in BC Ketchikan Alaska is basically the same climate as Fort William and is at 55.5N. Port Hardy does seem a fair bit worse than any sea level UK climate at 51N maybe local geography makes it worse. 

[East Lancs Rain]

Just had a look at the climate for Port Hardy now. Shocking how wet the autumns are. Makes Lancashire look dry! It’s summers are a bit cooler than mine, although they are also a bit drier and July and August are sunnier than here. Annual sunshine is slightly higher than mine. Outside of the summer, temperatures are quite similar to here, although the minimums are colder. It’s interesting that August is the warmest month of the year while December is the coldest. A lot of seasonal lag in summer but totally the opposite in winter.

 

Overall, not a great climate, far too wet and summer is too cool and it’s too cloudy outside the summer months.
 

The climate in Half Moon Bay, California, a few hundred miles further south, is the ideal climate for me. Mild year round, very sunny, and extremely dry in summer.

 

Half Moon Bay, California - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[raz.org.rain]

I'd imagine that coastal BC has less of a continentality factor to it. They're at the full mercy of westerly humid maritime breezes. Their only continental mass it to the east and there's a considerable mountain range blocking any influence from that direction. The rain shadow effect does give them a very arid and dry climate beyond that though! At least in the UK we have a decent chance of receiving southerly continental weather systems that can deliver drier and warmer weather, it must be a somewhat common occurrence these days for hot air in the Saharan to get blasted northwards into Britain. Both France and Spain are relatively flat compared to the PNW so there's not much of a moderating factor for hotter air masses going northwards. Coastal BC doesn't have much of a comparable setup.

Edited January 19 by raz.org.rain

[raz.org.rain]

People already calling a wet and cool summer for 2024. Christ, let's hope it doesn't happen.

 

[Don]

18 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

People already calling a wet and cool summer for 2024. Christ, let's hope it doesn't happen.

 

I really wouldn't be worrying about a wet and cool summer now!

[raz.org.rain]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

I really wouldn't be worrying about a wet and cool summer now!

Well, to be honest, the link between El Niño/La Niña and UK summers is near negligible. It's less of a concern but it certainly isn't helping me be less pessimistic! I would say that this current winter has demonstrated that mild has a pretty damn good chance of winning the battle against cool, which is kind of a sad sign of the present climate.

[cheeky_monkey]

28 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

People already calling a wet and cool summer for 2024. Christ, let's hope it doesn't happen.

 

the same happened in 2010 was a quick flip to LaNina..summer was really stormy here that year dont know what it was like in the UK?