Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

On the contrary GEFS has increased the chances of this moving north. 

 

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

On the contrary GEFS has increased the chances of this moving north. 

Exactly, might just reach us

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

On the contrary GEFS has increased the chances of this moving north. 

You watch it'll be up to Brum by the 18z

[saintkip]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

You watch it'll be up to Brum by the 18z

And Spain in the Morning 

[sheikhy]

I for one hope the low goes a bit further north!!anyone who wants it further north gota hope that low near iceland at 72 hours deepens further i think!!!

[northwestsnow]

Mean is an upgrade at 162 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

Definitely a turn for the worse168hr ukmo.

 Not if you are expecting Northern Blocking Nirvana…we expect a relaxation/Atlantic influence ….look at the LP south of Greenland ALREADY disrupting…..very interesting 

 

BFTP

[Rob 79812010]

I'm still a bit of a novice but what am I missing here. The gfs chart looks amazing to me. Is it the lack of snow??

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

You watch it'll be up to Brum by the 18z

That’s certainly not out of the question! North wales/ north/ mid midlands extension…

Edited January 12 by tight isobar

[Continental Climate]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

D11 GFS:

Yuk!!!

 

It's model related so you have a right to post it but that's 11 days away and will not verify. For the UK the upcoming spell is decent. Yes its not the 2010 nirvana everyone wants but it was never going to be. We get 5/6 days of cold weather and surprises can crop up. Lots of knee jerk posting on this forum today and absolutely no positivity. Am I also the only member who hates the term " tick tock, tick tock" that will inevitably get trundled out as the days go by. Lol rant over. 

[Ice Day]

Interestingly, the mean at 162 is actually slightly colder than the 6z

 

Edit - @northwestsnowbeat me to it.... again!

 

Edited January 12 by Ice Day

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, Rob 79812010 said:

I'm still a bit of a novice but what am I missing here. The gfs chart looks amazing to me. Is it the lack of snow??

Yes

[NewEra21]

This has been such a long chase and it’s definitely going to turn much, much colder next week. Hopefully we all see some unexpected surprises pop up when it comes to snow.

But what was potentially on the table that we thought we were chasing a week or two ago, you can’t help but be a little deflated with how next week may actually play out.

[Rob 79812010]

10 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Yes

Ah, fair enough!

[goosey007]

Extremely confusing on here at the moment …. Talk of a breakdown 7/8 days away is nuts the cold not even got here yet

[booferking]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 Not if you are expecting Northern Blocking Nirvana…we expect a relaxation/Atlantic influence ….look at the LP south of Greenland ALREADY disrupting…..very interesting 

 

BFTP

What about the low north of us sweeping the cold away. 

[Matt Jones]

GFS wants to bring us racing through the alphabet with storms between 22-26th Jan. Snow chances looking restricted to Mon-Thu for some next week Northern Scotland looking most favoured.

[Tamara]

40 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

I'm still not convinced on this mild blip. 

I feel the UKMO is closest to the mark. Not biased or anything, but the evolution looks better, the GFS is really messy last few runs.. moved a bit closer to the UKMO which has remained consistent. 

Also was the UKMO the first to pick up the slight extension to the cold spell? It seems to be handling the block and wedges a tad better than others..

As detailed fully earlier, it is easy to see why the models are looking to re-energise the polar jet. What still remains a question is how much flat west to east energy actually verifies beyond the meridian over a week away and how much instead is broken off. A lot of rationale has been given about the question mark over how sustained polar jet energy might be earlier today.

 The area between the UK and Iceland holds a key to a residual ridge and cold pooling that may well prove more resistant than modelling suggests 8 and more days away. Conceivably there is a route towards Scandinavia into the last week of the month and the start of a road back to late January blocking.

[Frosty.]

I’m optimistic that we will see more charts like this one from the Gfs 6z again this winter…l. ,well.. I will leave it to Churchill.. oh yesss!!!!

 

[TheJCInsights]

So one thing I have learnt from reading in here and very rarely ever posting, is how fast stuff can turn around, and fly in the face of all predictions, likelihoods and background signals. For example, only the day before these mammoth northerly and Greenland blocking suddenly appeared, a lot of posts were saying the best change won't come before last week if Jan or Feb and wait it out a few weeks, then suddenly it all went crazy exciting. So even if this attempt is ultimately watered down or a slight disappointment, it was great observing, bit of a snow here and there and it can easily suddenly materialise again in a week or two again out of nowhere. It's why we love British weather.

[Drifter]

I do find the funereal atmosphere towards the cold spell quite amusing when it hasn’t even started yet!

I’m sure a good number of you will have some pleasant surprises this week. 

[Ice Day]

Not much change, an excellent set of GEFS out to 192 - my location and Newcastle

  

[birdman]

11 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

It's model related so you have a right to post it but that's 11 days away and will not verify. For the UK the upcoming spell is decent. Yes its not the 2010 nirvana everyone wants but it was never going to be. We get 5/6 days of cold weather and surprises can crop up. Lots of knee jerk posting on this forum today and absolutely no positivity. Am I also the only member who hates the term " tick tock, tick tock" that will inevitably get trundled out as the days go by. Lol rant over. 

Yeah my feelings too. We have a spell of decent cold coming up and with the  chopping and changing of model output what's not to say there will be some interesting twists and turns of the snowy variety along the way? In any case winter isn't done by a long way with Feb and March all to play for!

[Methuselah]

Y'all are gonna love this then. Though there is still some 'model uncertainty': 

 

[ribster]

19 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Extremely confusing on here at the moment …. Talk of a breakdown 7/8 days away is nuts the cold not even got here yet

To be fair I don't understand this either, it's been cold since Friday last week, snowed Monday and frosts several nights.

[Metwatch]

Not sure if it's been posted already but the latest scenarios graphic re frontal snow potential mid next week from the Met. Southern England and I would even say some of central areas are still in with a chance. However I am still expecting a southward adjustment in the coming days but may not be too much. Time will tell.

Edited January 12 by Metwatch