Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Penrith Snow]

38 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not often we can say the south coast is the e sweet spot for snow this week (away from Scotland ) 

Could Cumbria really be so lucky?

[sunnijim]

1 minute ago, Chrisover93 said:

No we didn’t southern coastal counties haven’t seen snow since 2018

Haa e decent fall here in December 22.

I get your point though, not seen an awful lot.

Worthing did well on Monday, very snowy landscape.

All models seem to be correcting slightly North again in the last 24hrs.

Too much correction North and the coast will be rain., we really need to have a selfish view on the South coast on this one

What some models show now will suit us, take it and run.

[cold snap]

Gfs give it a rest. 

Low pressure after low pressure

Constant storm potential. 

No break from wind and rain from Saturday. 

Terrible weather

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Gefs mean

The mean position continues to move northwards on the mean above.

Why? A new reason (original was the low to the north) was the appearance of higher heights to the East and north east.

Remember we are still 3 days away , and if in the meantime we see heights setting up it would push the channel low a bit further north as it travels to the east.  Good news for the SE, not so good for Pembrokeshire.

 

[Weathizard]

A truly vile run from the GFS between day 5-10, well.. unless you like wind and rain! 

[Daniel*]

Ironically the rapidly collapsing blocking might be a good thing in terms of snow risk in southern England on Wednesday, see how deeply low heights is to our N/NE, if this was high pressure it would be a guarantee the system would be deflected south and snow would go into France altogether.

Edited January 13 by Daniel*

[blizzard81]

This isn't your usual cold to mild breakdown in terms of cold 850's getting swept away. Still cold at 168hrs on ukmo and the very cold seemingly going nowhere to our immediate east and north east. 

[knocker]

The rapid cyclogenesis on this evening's gfs worth a mention as the low tracks NE south of Iceland down  to 924mb by 00 Saturday

[bradymk]

1 minute ago, Harveyslugger said:

Just my luck

Don’t worry, pretty sure you will see some heavy snow showers Monday in Pembs, especially with your elevation in Hermon  

[LetItSnow!]

While I'm not arguing these are cold charts, the raw data from the GFS shows that the zonal spell isn't as mild as it looks to the eye. The mild sectors are rather tame and we do see even the minus 5 upper return on some pretty chilly westerly. It's suggested that the 20th may remain rather chilly in the east as residual cold at the surface lingers, too. Perhaps hints of cold zonality being toyed around with. I did talk about this perhaps being the case. Good news for Scotland. Further south, cold rain! Good news is if uppers remain close to normal then despite the wind and rain there is more chance of brightness between bands of rain and showers. We'll have to wait and see if the signal for heights to build to our south is being overestimated as that could put an end to that idea.

[Ali1977]

This is the start of the next chase - PV getting battered and stretched in FI 

[Ali1977]

Mean precip for Wednesday is way north - could be some good swings on that front ahead - P28 would be nice for the midlands south ️

Edited January 13 by Ali1977

[AO-]

26 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Interesting split pv again on the gfs at day 10 . Hopefully the next chase is not to far away

I would say that it is not a really interesting split as the cold over Canada is firing up the shortwave train over the Atlantic. But it is an improvement nevertheless with respect to the 06 . 

[mountain shadow]

30 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Rain, sleet and snow on Tuesday, with travel disruption possible. Drier and sunnier on Wednesday. Cold with frost and ice.

Met think so for lancs

"Risk of some disruptive snow on Tuesday, before returning to more cold sunshine Wednesday."

And yorks

 

 

We will see as the unstable cold gets going 

Some lovely rain for Northern Ireland right in the middle of the so called 'cold spell'.

Can't wait.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Mean precip for Wednesday is way north - could be some good swings on that front ahead 

This could be the further movement of the low towards the channel, on here most of the precipitation is centred over the French coast...

Watch it over the next few days, as (yet another reason!) the push to the east reduces over the next couple of days.

MIA 

[That ECM]

T168 neither without interest. Please not gfs.

Edited January 13 by That ECM

[bluearmy]

The gfs op is generally inconsistent back end of its runs in the upper strat but the last few runs has it taking the spv to Barents /novaya zemlaya with the axis heading back towards the meridian. 
 

I would expect that could indicate that by the back end of jan we would see another set up similar to what we have this week 

[LetItSnow!]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T168 neither without interest. Please not gfs.

GFS could be overcooking the lows as it is known to do. Without it like on the UKMO it looks a bit more primed with the heights more in the mid-Atlantic and a cold pool still to our east. The UKMO looks primed like it could potentially go cold again. The GFS doesn't allow this because there's too much forcing from the Atlantic which inflates high pressure across Europe. UKMO looks more realistic to me at least.

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

The Beeb have the whole of the S Coast getting Snow, probably as far North as 20 miles inland 

Not what I saw on the latest bbc  forecast with Stav. Missing the south completely. 

Edited January 13 by PiscesStar

[Harsh Climate]

I think there will certainly be a few surprises from the NW Tuesday/ Wednesday morning. Looks a fairly active system even has a triple point

Even by Wednesday the front is still apparent and has reached Central Southern England, albeit a decaying feature.

Look at the 500s, blue colors should give rise to some decent shower activity and quite gusty little winds developing I think a few favored places could be in line for 10-15cm, especially where showers/streamers align. Mostly talking about England's chances, Scotland more like 20-30cm in favored places. 

 

RED BOX - 5 to 15cm plus accumulations perhaps reserved for elevation 100m+ (About as far east as western suburbs of Leeds.) Further east a sporadic dusting to 2/3cm - BLUE BOX

 

Certainly worth keeping an eye on.

 

Edited January 13 by Harsh Climate

[carinthian]

7 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

GFS could be overcooking the lows as it is known to do. Without it like on the UKMO it looks a bit more primed with the heights more in the mid-Atlantic and a cold pool still to our east. The UKMO looks primed like it could potentially go cold again. The GFS doesn't allow this because there's too much forcing from the Atlantic which inflates high pressure across Europe. UKMO looks more realistic to me at least.

Thats some dart board low from GFS. Quite a stark difference now emerging between UKMO and GFS at 168t.

c

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

5 hours ago, MJB said:

You clearly have a lot to learn, people chase snow, they don't come on here looking for a frost lol

Most are looking beyond this week because there are no snow depths to talk about, no chat of warnings etc . Searching the next signs of a block.

Will it be cold yes, will there be many Ice days ? I doubt it, will most of the population see -10 at night ? I doubt it. 

Reading the MET update - Towards the end of the week or more likely over next weekend, the start of a transition back to less cold conditions is likely as Atlantic systems start to arrive from the west brining spells of rain 

So I doubt very much models are overdoing zonal flow....................as much as it pains us.

Understood but with regards to the move towards what we're told is brief less cold with the understanding wedges can still help to deflect the lows south? I got my kids yesterday for the wkend and it seems very different to the other day lol 

[LetItSnow!]

13 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T168 neither without interest. Please not gfs.

Sorry for the double post but actually I think, at least with my lesser trained eyes, the UKMO could be primed for retrogression if it keeps he NW/SE trajectory going. I look forward to seeing the UKMO handling the post 20th period. I genuinely do think there are some surprises around the corner and before you ask, I am immune to egg on my face. I installed a barrier, you can’t get me!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Harveyslugger said:

Yeah maybe.I myself just know who to believe who not

Harvey, definitely chance of dangler, models posted in Wales thread

[Climate Man]

GFS FI ties in perfectly with latest Meto musings.