Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[phil nw.]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It could be a downwelling wave from the warming at the end dec into Jan. three to four weeks wouldn’t be outside the expected range. The cross sectional of the atmosphere later may show how the weaker flow comes about through the run. 

Looking on the 3d profile on Stratoserve the spv looked in good order after the bottom split reforms.This is of course from previous runs.I didn't see any sign of downwelling waves on those Nick.

[Scott Ingham]

58 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Not often you see this type of anomaly lurking about Scandi... that's a decent signal.. here we go again !

I’ve been waiting for over a week to see this! Scandi then retrogress to Greenland. Others who don’t have dyslexia can put more meat on the bones with charts. I’ve tried to explain before but I’m sure yourself and Tamara have covered it all properly anyway!

[winterof79]

can anyone tell me how to search through all my previous posts not just a week or so. I'm losing it.

Edited January 16 by winterof79

[Blessed Weather]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

can anyone tell me how to search through all my previous posts not just a week or so. I'm losing it.

Go to your profile and click on "See my activity". See screen grab.

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I’ve been waiting for over a week to see this! Scandi then retrogress to Greenland. Others who don’t have dyslexia can put more meat on the bones with charts. I’ve tried to explain before but I’m sure yourself and Tamara have covered it all properly anyway!

Any Scandi heights likely to retrogress to Greenland by month end and continuing into March.

Seasonals rock solid consistent on Greenland blocking into the first month of spring.

[bluearmy]

23 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Looking on the 3d profile on Stratoserve the spv looked in good order after the bottom split reforms.This is of course from previous runs.I didn't see any sign of downwelling waves on those Nick.

I wouldn’t disagree Phil but seeing as we get to see the cross sectional that goes with op run, we may as well have a gander 

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Any Scandi heights likely to retrogress to Greenland by month end and continuing into March.

Seasonals rock solid consistent on Greenland blocking into the first month of spring.

I completely agree and I agree about the seasonal as well Aaron. They all point in the same direction February and March. It’s traditional for a Nino winter but we have the added help coming from a weakened vortex and perfect timing from the tropical cycle into the western pacific off the back off a Nino like atmosphere already in high GWO states! I’m interesting winter this one even though I’ve had no snow yet? You must have done well last night into today?

[phil nw.]

Just now, bluearmy said:

I wouldn’t disagree Phil but seeing as we get to see the cross sectional that goes with op run, we may as well have a gander 

Indeed why not

[AO-]

34 minutes ago, Derecho said:

They are some GFS ens that go for a more anticyclonic outlook by the 25th but whether that leads to blocking or it just falls flat remains to be seen. Chilly in the south if there is little wind...

 OP

 

Others...

So some signs high pressure will try and push north. Could end up becoming exceptionally mild if it fails. At least it won't be like late December / early January... that was a seriously grim period of weather

At 288 we can get a better impression which members get a cold follow up. There are some nice ones. I picked the 28th, because I think that is the date for getting back into winter/colder weather. Five members are worthwhile in my opinion. Synoptically the most potent members. 

Edited January 16 by AO-

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Love a hint.

Oh jeez, I don’t think I’m over the last chase yet!

[That ECM]

12 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Any Scandi heights likely to retrogress to Greenland by month end and continuing into March.

Seasonals rock solid consistent on Greenland blocking into the first month of spring.

Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.
 

I don’t disagree with you but this made me scratch my head. I was thinking that high doesn’t get north or goes to far ne allowing pv to have an influence in north?.

Edited January 16 by That ECM

[Jason M]

GEFS just hinting at possibility of easterly in deep FI. Be very wary of this signal IMHO as from experience likely route forward from around day 12 would be mid lat high with bulk of any cold eventually sinking away to our SE.

Only route I see for proper cold would be a cold pool dragged westwards round the base of a mid lat high to our east. In essence an E/SE wind off the continent. Can happen at this time of year.

I reckon we will see some big easterlies modelled in the next few days, but I won't be buying as I think we are destined for a watered down version.

Edited January 16 by Jason M

[Stuie]

So are we hoping the bulk of the PV, which moves to it`s Canadian winter home to be disrupted and give us a cold pool to tap into?

Would love to see those charts evolve, a learning curve for all no doubt too.

[Jason M]

12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely during early February, there remains a chance of some milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north.
 

I don’t disagree with you but this made me scratch my head. I was thinking that high doesn’t get north or goes to far ne allowing pv to have an influence in north?.

They are going mid lat route. High sat over say Germany / Low Countries. I think they will be right. Just cannot see a genuine high lat block setting up.

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

I'm still punch drunk from the last chase 

[AO-]

Just now, Jason M said:

They are going mid lat route. High sat over say Germany / Low Countries. I think they will be right. Just cannot see a genuine high lat block setting up.

I disagree with you for only one reason. I don't see the pv part over Canada Greenland weakening the next two weeks. This means that proper WAA leads to a block in a favourable position (Scandinavia) The only question is how long it will take for the cold to arrive as the cold is pushed back across the Urals the next week. This is the only possibility I see for winter. I could be wrong though, but this option just seems very likely to me. 

[sebastiaan1973]

I would say I see some similarities at these three. GFS, EC & 27th of January 1956. 

Edited January 16 by sebastiaan1973

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, Jason M said:

They are going mid lat route. High sat over say Germany / Low Countries. I think they will be right. Just cannot see a genuine high lat block setting up.

The question is how do you get to a high lat block from where we are now.

9 minutes ago, AO- said:

I disagree with you for only one reason. I don't see the pv part over Canada Greenland weakening the next two weeks. This means that proper WAA leads to a block in a favourable position (Scandinavia) The only question is how long it will take for the cold to arrive as the cold is pushed back across the Urals the next week. This is the only possibility I see for winter. I could be wrong though, but this option just seems very likely to me. 

I agree with this.  I think what we need to ask ourselves is, given the models were showing a rampant zonal pattern indefinitely, what is the first sign on the models likely to be - if the ultimate destination is a high lat block in Scandi, the first thing we will see is a mid lat block pushing north into the UK, pushed up by WAA from the vortex.  If the vortex doesn’t relent, that should continue and drive the high to our NE - where exactly we don’t know, but a Scandi high looks a reasonable aspiration from there, given a more amplified pattern is expected from teleconnections.

Edited January 16 by Mike Poole

[Cloud 10]

Looks like Tamara can get the sun lounger back out next week.

 

[Jason M]

5 minutes ago, AO- said:

I disagree with you for only one reason. I don't see the pv part over Canada Greenland weakening the next two weeks. This means that proper WAA leads to a block in a favourable position (Scandinavia) The only question is how long it will take for the cold to arrive as the cold is pushed back across the Urals the next week. This is the only possibility I see for winter. I could be wrong though, but this option just seems very likely to me. 

Can see the argument 

It all just looks like another one of those 'close but no cigar' set ups to me. Some tasty looking charts in deep FI but the reality will be a Greek Tragedy as the core of the cold sinks towards Athens.

We could pull in a cold pool from the SE though that could give a few days of deep cold. I think a slightly aggravated Poodle is more likely than the Beast though 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The question is how do you get to a high lat block from where we are now.

I agree with this.  I think what we need to ask ourselves is, given the models were showing a rampant zonal pattern indefinitely, what is the first sign on the models likely to be - if the ultimate destination is a high lat block in Scandi, the first thing we will see is a mid lat block pushing north into the UK, pushed up by WAA from the vortex.  If the vortex doesn’t relent, that should continue and drive the high to our NE - where exactly we don’t know, but a Scandi high looks a reasonable aspiration from there.

It’s been fascinating output viewing and this is from someone who has come as close to a channel runner in a long time.

 

However, bring on the next chase and if luck goes against us then I’d rather have a chance than look at flat pattern for months.

 

[Scott Ingham]

This is more than interesting! It’s starting to remind me of 2018. I’d take that 2 weeks earlier!

Edited January 16 by Scott Ingham

[Mike Poole]

ECM seems keen on some action.  T240:

Just appeared in last two frames.

[ICE COLD]

Mmmmmm ECM day 10 raises my other brow

Edited January 16 by ICE COLD

[January Snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM seems keen on some action.  T240:

Just appeared in last two frames.

Yes a definite hint this evening that the flip to zonal might be short lived.. its another chase, are we up for it....just about!

-6 here last night with frost lingering all day! Last time that happened was 2018 and 2010

Edited January 16 by January Snowstorm