Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[knocker]

1 hour ago, AO- said:

I disagree that Scandinavian hights are the holy Grail to look for atm. Yes, eventually for enduring cold, the Scandinavian block is what we want, but 2012 dids not have a Scandinavian block when winter set in. It started with a block over Kazachstan, ending up with a Northwest Russian block. A southeasterly van be very cold with the right setup. And writing off something that is in far FI, is just ridiculous. The Scandinavian block is still in the EPS (albeit minimal with 4 members, but that number is pretty constant), just not in the operational. Since when do we take one operational at day 11 seriously? 

In my experience, which I admit is very limited, whenever they are indicating severe cold and snow. Otherwise discard without further thought. 

Edited January 17 by knocker

[Stephen W]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Heights into Greenland for more than a fleeting ridge at best look troublesome to me within the next 16 days. 
unless we see the Canadian vortex relaxing itself markedly across the end week 2 ens, then i think we could be looking towards week 4 approaching mid feb to get that to stick.  It really wouldn’t surprise me to see the nwp trying to repeat the last couple weeks with a mlb that eases north to Orkney ish latitude  and then retrogresses slowly. if upstream plays ball then we can then get a griceland high to follow. If split flow plays ball then we can possibly advect something notable around the south of an Orkney high. 

 

 

That would tie in with forecast of strat PV to return to above average (GEFS mean) following SSW underway today. That would be problematic for HLB especially if PV establishes Greenland?

Edited January 17 by Stephen W

[Troubleatmill]

13 minutes ago, AO- said:

The problem with the synoptics atm is that if we get a Scandinavian high, there won't be any cold left to put on transport towards Northwest Europe. Thats why I would prefer retrogressing of the Siberian high into Russian. I see that as one of the few options left to get a proper cold spell on short notice. 

I've always been a little unsure about this, as if a true scandivian high was to set up, cold would soon be brought in around it. Using last night's 12z as an example, nothing much out east as you would expect with a westerly flow all the way to western russia, however as soon as the scandi high asserts itself..bingo! It's all about getting the scandi high to align itself right. 

[john mac1]

18 minutes ago, AO- said:

The problem with the synoptics atm is that if we get a Scandinavian high, there won't be any cold left to put on transport towards Northwest Europe. Thats why I would prefer retrogressing of the Siberian high into Russian. I see that as one of the few options left to get a proper cold spell on short notice. 

Problem with that is the Siberian high never sees to retrogress enough in my experience . We always see to be 500 miles too far west for the cold ti reach us. Better for us witt a pattern reset or an SSW

[Bricriu]

2 hours ago, booferking said:

Can't see anything wintry until after mid February atleast the modo this winter has been a delayed response once we first start seeing in the charts a 15 day lag or so enjoy the chase leave but I'd leave it a good week or so meanwhile watch out for these nasty buggers.

This is somewhat misleading.  Prior to some past notable colder spells the charts suggested  a long route to cold, but  as those cold outbreaks proved it can happen  quite quickly. Also sometimes the GFS  Op run can lead the way against  the ensembles. We saw this last week. The GFS is sometimes good at sniffing  out trends  that the other models don't pick up on.  We could end up with heights towards the North East during the first week of February , but  whether the high is far enough north and orientated the right way to advect cold our way  I would be much less confident about. 

[AO-]

1 hour ago, john mac1 said:

Problem with that is the Siberian high never sees to retrogress enough in my experience . We always see to be 500 miles too far west for the cold ti reach us. Better for us witt a pattern reset or an SSW

Agree. For me it was once in a lifetime up untill now and that was 2012. 

1 hour ago, Troubleatmill said:

I've always been a little unsure about this, as if a true scandivian high was to set up, cold would soon be brought in around it. Using last night's 12z as an example, nothing much out east as you would expect with a westerly flow all the way to western russia, however as soon as the scandi high asserts itself..bingo! It's all about getting the scandi high to align itself right. 

That is a really nice example indeed, but I'm affraid that is rather unlikely. We will see as details upstream are important how far west the WAA will be. The latest run(s) the block was pushed east before proper WAA could get the block towards Scandinavia/Russia. 

 

I must admit that the latest EPS was a downgrade compared to the 00. 

[booferking]

34 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

This is somewhat misleading.  Prior to some past notable colder spells the charts suggested  a long route to cold, but  as those cold outbreaks proved it can happen  quite quickly. Also sometimes the GFS  Op run can lead the way against  the ensembles. We saw this last week. The GFS is sometimes good at sniffing  out trends  that the other models don't pick up on.  We could end up with heights towards the North East during the first week of February , but  whether the high is far enough north and orientated the right way to advect cold our way  I would be much less confident about. 

That's my take yours is different enjoy the chase if comes earlier its a bonus.

[winterof79]

+Ao not able to sustain as we end Jan back to neutral at worse.

Liking the cliff jumpers

 

[Troubleatmill]

44 minutes ago, AO- said:

Agree. For me it was once in a lifetime up untill now and that was 2012. 

That is a really nice example indeed, but I'm affraid that is rather unlikely. We will see as details upstream are important how far west the WAA will be. The latest run(s) the block was pushed east before proper WAA could get the block towards Scandinavia/Russia. 

 

I must admit that the latest EPS was a downgrade compared to the 00. 

Agree there pal, on the latest ensembles there has been a very strong +NAO making it difficult for anything to get a foothold in scandi. Can and will change as it's so far out but certainly not great chart viewing.

Who knows, the next runs might hint at the energy just off the eastern board digging south again, allowing ridging to set up as we want it too aka yesterday's 12z

Main point was, if we we did get a true scandi high emerging, I wouldn't be too bothered about the 850s before hand (build it and they will come) as the ridging will pull cold air down from the arctic into Scandinavia as part of the building blocks

All we can do is keep an eye out and hope

Edited January 17 by Troubleatmill

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Stephen W said:

That would tie in with forecast of strat PV to return to above average (GEFS mean) following SSW underway today. That would be problematic for HLB especially if PV establishes Greenland?

Above average for a short while but not a ragingly strong spv. And then the gefs seem to want to drop it back a little below average by end week 2.  The gfs op looks like it wants to stretch it across the pole which could make things interesting if we get a renewed Asian warming. 

yesterdays ec46 kept it a little a little above average  for the next month or so with little sign of any drop off in flow. Centred ne of svaalbard.

gefs end week 2 are approx in that ballpark 

I would agree that this would make a full blown Greenland ridge less likely but we could get a griceland fella with that arrangement.  The upper strat pv doesn’t necessarily imprint precisely into the tpv. It’s can often be on an angle whereby the spv could be over svaalbard high up and the tpv w Greenland/ne Canada. 
 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Above average for a short while but not a ragingly strong spv. And then the gefs seem to want to drop it back a little below average by end week 2.  The gfs op looks like it wants to stretch it across the pole which could make things interesting if we get a renewed Asian warming. 

yesterdays ec46 kept it a little a little above average  for the next month or so with little sign of any drop off in flow. Centred ne of svaalbard.

gefs end week 2 are approx in that ballpark 

I would agree that this would make a full blown Greenland ridge less likely but we could get a griceland fella with that arrangement.  The upper strat pv doesn’t necessarily imprint precisely into the tpv. It’s can often be on an angle whereby the spv could be over svaalbard high up and the tpv w Greenland/ne Canada. 
 

But that's only now,  we all know after a ssw despite the strat layers built into to many of the main models, things can change once the physical process is underway or passed, and that straight away is a red flag with whats been sold to us atm model wise.

Has this latest warming been modeled well? I certainly haven't saw too much about this but its been a mad house this place with pages upon pages so its possible i missed bits i really need to stop the lazy attitude i notice to have developed which is rely heavily on this place all the charts but i miss some of it during busy spells!

I do feel quite disappointed tbh with the way the entire cold spell has become after so much early promise but im very optimistic regarding the next 2 months into mid March with a notable cold and snow spell for many.

Trying to manage expectations in this country is very challenging when we can have most places to the south of UK and north of stafford have saw quite a bit of snow lately i feel as if i threw two 6,s and ended up with 4!

Edited January 17 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Gowon]

Nobody noticed the ICON:

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

6 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Nobody noticed the ICON:

It’s showing a Bartlett ?

[Gowon]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s showing a Bartlett ?

It's showing heights building north and splitting the two lobes, then it would probably end up like the GFS 12z yesterday.

[Johnp]

9 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Nobody noticed the ICON:

I did, but nothing worthy of comment surely?

[tight isobar]

Any double digit mildness looking ever shorter -long lived.. the longer term well, it’s an unfolding sarga atm..

Edited January 17 by tight isobar

[Gowon]

23 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I did, but nothing worthy of comment surely?

Sorry for the late response, but It's a positive sign whenever heights start to build over to our NE 

GFS might be going for it as well:

 

Edited January 17 by Gowon

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Gowon said:

Sorry for the late response, but It's a positive sign whenever heights start to build over to our NE I get interested 

GFS might be going for it as well:

 

That to me looks like a bog standard very mild chart with minimal scope for cold.

[Gowon]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

That to me looks like a bog standard very mild chart with minimal scope for cold.

We'll see cos the GFS looks similar 

[IDO]

The noticeable part of the next week is upcoming potential destructive storms (to D6 gusts):

 

[Gowon]

Better than this mornings:

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

We'll see cos the GFS looks similar 

Come on now guys exceptional mild on that chart and no scope for cold due to the stonking Iberian heights.

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Come on now guys exceptional mild on that chart and no scope for cold due to the stonking Iberian heights.

There's potential there you just need to know where to look - you're too focused on those Iberian heights.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Gowon said:

There's potential there you just need to know where to look - you're too focused on those Iberian heights.

No I'm not too focused. They're there and they're very influential. This time I'm not backing down from my ascertions which are scientifically and evidentially supported. A cold easterly wind is not possible with a 580hpa high over Iberia, no arguing that.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

There's potential there you just need to know where to look - you're too focused on those Iberian heights.

 

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

No I'm not too focused. They're there and they're very influential. This time I'm not backing down from my ascertions which are scientifically and evidentially supported. A cold easterly wind is not possible with a 580hpa high over Iberia, no arguing that.

From the runs I’ve seen, the Iberian heights pumped up by the zonal spell are part and parcel of any evolution to a Scandi high, by means of building those heights first through the UK and then into Scandi with a deep Atlantic trough providing the WAA for such an evolution.