Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[101_North]

An absolute horror show this morning

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Well yesterday was nice! 

[Quinach]

2 hours ago, Hawesy said:

Looking forward to the westerlies at the weekend, we need to dry out!

This .

Never seen the garden so soaked as it is now, lawn literally a sponge with pools of water lapping around your feet when you walk on it.

We've been lucky in that the pulses of heavy rain in the last few days have been separated by drier periods (though still with plenty of persistent drizzle) which have allowed the burns to stay just within their banks.

Not particularly warm the last couple of days, overnight low of 2c with rain off and on all night.  Showery outbreaks today so far with 100% Grade A+ Permagloom™, currently 5c with a steady easterly breeze.

Nature already deciding that spring is coming, noticed fresh buds on the Clematis and Narcissi well though the surface...

[Big Gally]

Don’t tell the Southerner’s   

[Norrance]

Just back from first Christmas lunch of the season. 3  courses so feet up for the rest of the afternoon. May as well as it is wet and windy and feeling much cooler than the 6.9C on my w/s.

[Big Gally]

Met office now going for a cold shot next week. Especially in the north. 

[Hairy Celt]

2 hours ago, Big Gally said:

Met office now going for a cold shot next week. Especially in the north. 

Seems to be a bit of a bandwagon... watch it go tits up!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

It's all connecting really neatly from my POV which aligns to the current MJO cycling particularly phases 3 through 5/6

I mentioned the phase 3 setup would come into reality from mid December 

On 03/12/2023 at 19:41, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

So as we move into our second week of this well anticipated cold evolution I'll look at the setup thus far and travel through the next couple of weeks

 

Linking the means from the 23rd into observed 500hpa for the previous 7 days 

 

Special accuracy I particularly like the extra strong Scandi baltic trough which the JMA depicts along with the blocking via phase 8 feeding into Dec

I'm very happy with my overall roundup from the 23rd and observed conditions thus far 

'focal points remain the same with regard to the temperature aspect

CONSISTENT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS FOR 2 WEEKS AT LEAST. INCREASED SHOT FOR ICE DAYS ESPECIALLY SCOTLAND AND INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND AT TIMES. '

And the snowy conditions into UK at a timeframe I had generally expected for an opportunity of such weather 

"Closely looking into the very start of December with increasing troughing closer to the UK"

We have the phase 1 and 2 setups beginning from this week 

 

Further scope for another snowy system into the Northeast of America 

Elongation of the Atlantic trough separates with one trough into the UK and the positive PNA style trough into the northeast of US, phase 2 increasing the strengthening Russian & Siberian High

"Not a huge amount to add with the modelling doing a great job overall here and great evolution which is Textbook Ninò with Negative NAO and other teleconnections feeding in such as the phase 6 through 2 evolutions with the latter still being grasped in the exact amplitude by models though we know the trip to phase 2 has been high amplitude / impacting thus far with unseasonably high rain across parts of India plus good % for cyclone development in about 1 week in the Indian Ocean

Some models are following similar to the cycle previously with a decrease of amplitude over the IO again though it is still a good deal higher than the previous cycle, the IOD factoring in will be causing this should the drop in amplitude occur. however the CFS still going all in and it certainly hasn't been alone in this higher strength cycle '

 

Hats off to the CFS as it held firm keeping increased amplitude as we are progressing toward the maritimes and the other models now following suit

 

Towards mid December we begin to have the influencing phase 3 

 

Phases 3 through 4 leads to patterns which drive above average temperature scenarios again Linking with the negative PNA 

 

Still acts as further impact on the strat vortex 

 

This coinciding with feedback of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation which I mentioned here  

On 05/12/2023 at 18:43, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I've posted a detailed look at the incredible event of the previous 11 days 🌨🌨️️

 

Following onto the prior posts in this thread we continue to watch as classic feedback from phases 2 through 4 emerge 

Multiple patterns unfolding here.

Elongation of high heights north of Hawaii, Extending trough from Alaska down the west coast which leads to development of cut off low(s) from California and especially Mexico, Strengthening Block in the far north of America and particularly East Canada into Maritmes with the curved extension to the UK and Scandinavia. As phase 4 feeds in this brings high pressure into the UK from the Southwest with a trough to the east 

 

 

Feedback of progress into a + NAO

Into December week 4 it's clear to see the feedback of phases 3 and 4 which drive surface temperature patterns across most of the Northern Hemisphere into above average scenario though most significant will be where the main blocks reside particularly Canada and the Maritimes then adjacent with a secondary high toward Russia. The below average surface temperature areas will be California and Mexico, Greenland, parts of Asia and across Alaska, maybe Florida 

As the phase 5 feedback comes through by Dec week 4 paired with the positive NAO and energies from the tropospheric vortex we'll need to be VERY mindful of storm developments / deep cyclones  

On 07/12/2023 at 15:40, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Beginning to watch as phase 5 feedback enters the scene toward December week 4 ie near Christmas, we'll be watching for the retrogressive nature of our UK and Maritime high link, this then pushes energies from the lower pressure over Greenland into trough developments further east ie to our Northwest---North---Northeast, recent emerging signs this could coincide with a re emerging Ninò Style Jet setup giving potential exciting times further beyond this timeframe if that's true

 

 

getting a feel for the C32 pattern being a distinct possibility 

Use these as a general idea

Not surprising too watching as some strat warming is appearing also into Dec week 4 which was a timeframe ive had in my mind since Nov week 4

[Huntforsnow]

We need to get a ferry home to the parents on Xmas eve…getting a little concerned at these windy charts  

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

It's all connecting really neatly from my POV which aligns to the current MJO cycling particularly phases 3 through 5/6

I mentioned the phase 3 setup would come into reality from mid December 

This coinciding with feedback of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation which I mentioned here  

Into December week 4 it's clear to see the feedback of phases 3 and 4 which drive surface temperature patterns across most of the Northern Hemisphere into above average scenario though most significant will be where the main blocks reside particularly Canada and the Maritimes then adjacent with a secondary high toward Russia. The below average surface temperature areas will be California and Mexico, Greenland, parts of Asia and across Alaska, maybe Florida 

As the phase 5 feedback comes through by Dec week 4 paired with the positive NAO and energies from the tropospheric vortex we'll need to be VERY mindful of storm developments / deep cyclones  

Use these as a general idea

Not surprising too watching as some strat warming is appearing also into Dec week 4 which was a timeframe ive had in my mind since Nov week 4

Good post as usual a cold possibly snowy cyclonic end to 2023 then... 

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Another grim raw wet day, hefty showers clearing away soon after dark (320pm!) then clean starry night with widespread frost setting in , will be icy in the morning I think.

[Big Gally]

[Big Gally]

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Nice dry!! And frosty morning. Looks like Christmas period is starting to look interestingly seasonal …maybe

 

 

[Quinach]

A chilly 3.8c outside with calm conditions and fog/mist coating the tops of the surrounding hills - meanwhile look straight up and you see chinks of blue sky so perhaps the reappearance of the sun later.

Shower of rain at dawn and rain radar shows showers not too far away so the soggy theme continues.

Impressive number of geese flying overhead northwards this morning, wave after wave of them so must be thousands in total - I would presume coming up from Montrose which is pretty much due south of here.

[Ricky67]

This looks promising for a white Christmas.  Know it's a bit off verifying but there seems to be a bit of momentum gathering.

[Quinach]

Skies cleared by lunchtime to leave a nice sunny afternoon.

Temperatures dropping all day, now just hit 0c so a frost ahead.

Plenty geese heading home southwards just now.

[Big Gally]

A week tomorrow could turn interesting.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Aye, does look like cheaper heating bill long weekend before winter returns next week.

Bought mini Miss SS some nice ski boots now her feet have defo stopped growing, and a set of second hand skis for Scottish rock hopping. Hope a huvnae jinxed this winter by doing this! 

Now I live 1 hour from the lecht/glenshee, I'm no gonnae miss an opportunity!

[Northernlights]

Thought we were heading for a frost with the clear sky sunset but wind from a southerly direction has been increasing all evening. Much needed to dry surface and refresh the stale air in steading for cattle especially calves. will help straw situation too as have been piling it  in trying to keep them dry

[Norrance]

Here mostly cloudy but winds still light and temps of 2.3C from a max of 5C. One or two brief showers came in earlier off the North Sea. 

[Hairy Celt]

Touch of frost here early yesterday evening but it was gone by 10pm as the cloud came over. Patchy cloud this morning with light showers nearby.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Am so gonnae jinx this.

Scotland could still be in for a white Christmas - despite warm weather

NEWS.STV.TV

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Temperatures this weekend are set to be extremely mild - but we shouldn't rule out the chance of snow just yet.

No lookin sae mild by the 20th.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Scottish-Irish Skier

[Big Gally]

17 minutes ago, Scottish-Irish Skier said:

Am so gonnae jinx this.

Scotland could still be in for a white Christmas - despite warm weather

NEWS.STV.TV

---

Temperatures this weekend are set to be extremely mild - but we shouldn't rule out the chance of snow just yet.

No lookin sae mild by the 20th.

[Hairy Celt]

We'll start with something quite mild...