Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[Snowandrocks]

Doesn't look particularly mild here with a daytime max of ~3 degrees and a chance of a snow shower seeming likely but nothing overly exciting either. 

Hopefully something more interesting appears as we head towards the new year. 

[Jo Farrow]

14 hours ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Not sure what the Met Office are sitting on here re: this potential storm Gerrit on Thursday but my work are gearing up for significant disruption over the next 2-3 days.

Seems that the DMI Danish met have named it Pia 

[Northernlights]

8 hours ago, Snowandrocks said:

Doesn't look particularly mild here with a daytime max of ~3 degrees and a chance of a snow shower seeming likely but nothing overly exciting either. 

Hopefully something more interesting appears as we head towards the new year. 

Yes my local forecast has us down for a nice seasonal day.

[Snoozi]

23 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Yes my local forecast has us down for a nice seasonal day.

Calm before the storm? 

2 scenarios imo
1. hype to instill panic, again
2. the SSEN do not want to get caught on the hop, just in case..

I'm still charging everything I can with a passion though!! 

[Northernlights]

On the last lap of autumn /winter ploughing. Hope we get a few more bare  frosts  to get a good tilth for spring.

 

 

 

Cattle hoovering up their neeps. Currently 7c with some light rain

Edited December 20, 2023 by Northernlights

[Quinach]

Wet and pretty miserable out, complete contrast to the lovely sunny day yesterday.

6c with light winds and copious amounts of rain.

The Cairngorm Reindeer seem to have mutated into a new species... 

[Hawesy]

Quite bright here, we've dodged the rain so far and feeling mild at 11c with light winds.

The Christmas day charts have been comedy gold: as soon as ECM goes cold, GFS shows mild and vice versa. At present it's GFS showing a cold day with ECM relatively mild. All in all I'd categorise the coming week as classic Scottish winter fayre, never particularly cold or mild but windy and unsettled with snow on the hills at times and a smaller risk of something wintry at lower levels, especially in the north. Could be a lot worse!

[jellybaby1969]

Hawsey...your right could be a lot worse at least we hopefully will not see double digits and a gale force south westerly !  Xmas day  as you say may feel slightly seasonal 

 

[Norrance]

Haven't seen nacreous cloud for about fifteen years and now two days in a row! Not quite as clear as yesterday and partly obscured by wisps of lower cloud but still great to see.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Norrance

[Quinach]

32 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Haven't seen nacreous cloud for about fifteen years and now two days in a row! Not quite as clear as yesterday and partly obscured by wisps of lower cloud but still great to see.

Subtle hints of it here, apparently stronger earlier on but missed the show.

Phone camera as usual not showing it as vividly as the reality.

 

[Norrance]

Another photo slightly later. Second pic. The cloud to our NE had gone as the sun s went down but the second to the SW is still there. Thet photo just does not get the blues and greens very well.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Norrance

[Jo Farrow]

All still under the same yellow wind warning, Low impacts

[Jo Farrow]

A different perspective from DMI

Wind gusts (m/s) and pressure https://www.dmi.dk/vejrkort

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Very detailed post incoming

My thinking holds steady with the pattern evolutions over the Christmas and heading toward the New year period, the broadscale setup is that of a developing Scandinavian - Baltic trough, this setup was always probable into week 4 of December 

On 07/12/2023 at 15:40, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Beginning to watch as phase 5 feedback enters the scene toward December week 4 ie near Christmas, we'll be watching for the retrogressive nature of our UK and Maritime high link, this then pushes energies from the lower pressure over Greenland into trough developments further east ie to our Northwest---North---Northeast, recent emerging signs this could coincide with a re emerging Ninò Style Jet setup giving potential exciting times further beyond this timeframe if that's true

 

 

getting a feel for the C32 pattern being a distinct possibility 

 

On 15/12/2023 at 14:42, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Extending from my latest update here 

 

 

With the continuation of positive NAO feedback paired to recent MJO phases favouring an above average temperature scenarios there won't be any significant long lasting below average temperatures however as phase 5 feeds into the positive NAO in around 6/7 days time this will bring the tropospheric vortex stretching from the Alaskan trough into the Standard below average heights from Greenland and into the phase 5 setup with this extending across to Scandinavia 

The biggest surface temperature anoms below average for the UK are most probable across northern Britain 

Below avg 850hpa temperatures will extend across a wide swathe of the UK and into Scandinavia 

This below average period will face a quick retraction once again as the trough becomes refocused further north northwest back toward Greenland as colder conditions once again becoming focused in Asia, California, Alaska, Greenland, potentially Florida plus Mexico 

Further synchronicity with 2012

perfect timing with your post @Jo Farrow thanks  

7 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Seems that the DMI Danish met have named it Pia 

Looking solely into the dynamical situations for Christmas itself as mentioned in my posts above / recently the highest probalistic outcomes of below average surface temps were always best for northern UK 

With a prominent section of the Jet crossing the UK its easy to understand the milder trends particularly on the southern flank 

Also easy seeing why the flow will change orientation from a Northwest flow to that of more Westerly influence which again you'd not typically connect with prolonged below avg weather.

850hpa anoms

Surface temperatures anomalies 

Looks like a legit chance of a snow event particularly for the northern,northwestern and Northeastern sections of Scotland through Friday and Sat with precip forming along the frontal boundary between the cold and warm air

 

 

For Christmas itself current trends show a feature starting across Northern Scotland which moves south sometime on Christmas Day, this might bring an opportunity for a classic white Christmas dependant on 528 dam position and Dewpoints feeding into said feature.

Looking further into what's unfolding further afield, as the MJO is progressing through the Western Hemisphere and Africa I'd be expectant for some cyclonic developments within these regions and lo and behold we see a double rossby wave break over Africa with the 1st giving snowfall in Algeria and the 2nd bringing a persisting low over Morocco which might also see some snowfall there.

On 16/12/2023 at 17:49, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Looking at the situation across Africa particularly Northwest North and Northeast regions, a low which began in SE England will transition into a cut off low via Rossby Wave Breaking and will drift Southwest into Africa. This is occuring via feedbacks of phase 3 of the MJO which can give below average surface temps across these African regions which matches very good to these upcoming dynamics

New trend coming into play on the models with scope of a second wave break from frontal energy coming from the Atlantic which extends Northeast through the UK with signs for a secondary cut off low development through Spain which also slides into these African regions 

 

Contradictory to the Christmas lyrics this will provide opportunity for some of the precip to be falling as snow in parts of Morocco, Northern Alergia and Tunisia this Christmas

Could be some flooding rains with the first wave breaking low over Tunisia in particular which might extend toward the Libyan coastlines

 

On 17/12/2023 at 22:32, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

This should help to develop further lows toward the UK in the run up to New Year

In my post from 7th December I spoke of the re emerging trend of a classic El Ninò Style Jet, this paired with the PNA being positive .. more on that in a min. Has already given a record breaking storm on that route via the Gulf into the Northeast 

 

 

Looking back at what I discussed from December 5th 

On 05/12/2023 at 18:43, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I've posted a detailed look at the incredible event of the previous 11 days 🌨🌨️️

 

Following onto the prior posts in this thread we continue to watch as classic feedback from phases 2 through 4 emerge 

Multiple patterns unfolding here.

Elongation of high heights north of Hawaii, Extending trough from Alaska down the west coast which leads to development of cut off low(s) from California and especially Mexico, Strengthening Block in the far north of America and particularly East Canada into Maritmes with the curved extension to the UK and Scandinavia. As phase 4 feeds in this brings high pressure into the UK from the Southwest with a trough to the east 

 

 

Feedback of progress into a + NAO

Excellent representation with the ongoing and in parts record strength block particularly through the UK, North Atlantic and Maritimes--> Canada

 

 

also we now have our cut off low development through California into Mexico 

 

 

 

 

The PNA has strengthed within the + phase and this brings a new storm threat in about a weeks time 

I'm expectant of a shift from the deep cold which has and is currently residing across Asia, East Asia particularly as high pressure moves across Korea and Japan through Christmas this switches towards above average temperature scenarios 

[Huntforsnow]

Tree down on a main route round here already and winds not anywhere near peaking 

can’t understand how this is only yellow warning.. 

[Ravelin]

16 minutes ago, Huntforsnow said:

can’t understand how this is only yellow warning.. 

 

Certainly for north of Scotland and Orkney/Shetland, would have thought an Amber was warranted. I'm sure I heard all schools in Orkney are shut tomorrow due to the forecast. 

Breezy here already, but nothing major. 

[Hairy Celt]

Breezy here too.... but no more. And if Sunday's non-event is anything to go by, I'm not expecting much more than a stiff Mandy in the morning. Well, a drop of rain possibly.

[Bats32]

Winds definitely arrived here, although I'm on slightly higher ground, can hear bins flying around the street already! They better stay away from my car!

[Quinach]

Some violent gusts of wind hitting the house now, one at 5:45am managed to wake the whole house up.  Now to wait for daylight to see what damage is out there.

Some torrential rain overnight, light rain just now and 7c.

[Jo Farrow]

Beautiful Nacreous display this morning, along A1 looking east towards Torness. Glad I had my big coat on

[Kayemill]

Wheelie bin casualties all over the place this morning. Car was getting blown about like an empty shell suit.

8 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Beautiful Nacreous display this morning, along A1 looking east towards Torness. Glad I had my big coat on

I'm curious, what is that on the right side of your photo?

[Jo Farrow]

9 minutes ago, Kayemill said:

Wheelie bin casualties all over the place this morning. Car was getting blown about like an empty shell suit.

I'm curious, what is that on the right side of your photo?

It's an Andy Scott sculpture of a Bear

[Kayemill]

17 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

It's an Andy Scott sculpture of a Bear

Thought it looked like claws. After a quick Google I see it's the guy who did the Kelpies.

 

Thanks.

[Hairy Celt]

32 minutes ago, Kayemill said:

Wheelie bin casualties all over the place this morning. Car was getting blown about like an empty shell suit.

I'm curious, what is that on the right side of your photo?

[johncam]

13 hours ago, Huntforsnow said:

Tree down on a main route round here already and winds not anywhere near peaking 

can’t understand how this is only yellow warning.. 

Because the strongest winds ain't happening in England