Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[jellybaby1969]

Friday onwards is certainly not without interest !  Subtle changes could make it epic or an epic fail if it's a winter wonderland you are looking for.. I have so far managed to keep ma big gub shut at work and to family..with regard to a white Xmas.

[101_North]

12 hours ago, edo said:

I seen a similar thing just before midnight last night looking  in east direction... was really quite awesome. Topped off the week after a nice trip to Poland where I snowmobiled up a mountain to the Slovakia border. Was awesome as got up to 4000ft and above the mist and clouds. We were the only people up there an incredible experience especially considering around Xmas time the area will be mobbed assuming they keep some snow. 

Had a cracking holiday in Zakopane on the Poland/Slovakia border about 20 years ago. Mountains were thick with snow even in early May. A lovely area to visit. Always had the intention to go back someday but not managed it yet. 

[Northernlights]

15 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Breezy day up to 12c late afternoon mostly dry and drying.  Plough making progress today burying spread dung just need one more day next week to finish winter ploughing.

13c start to day and very windy.Ploughing skinning up (ground drying to dust on top of furrows) Quite a change.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Breezy oot.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Scottish-Irish Skier

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Very mild and windy here 11.3C winds gusting high 30s, glimpses of the sun but also light spits rain. Few photos of the damage caused by Storm Ciaran in Normandy around my parents house.  The damage is unbelievable, the nearby forest was so dark when you walked through you could hardly see the sky now is almost completely flattened. It even snapped marble headstones in the local church

 

[SJFCPH1]

[Hairy Celt]

Bit wet out although looking at the usually reliable radar, we may only be getting a fraction of those further west.

Typical December.

[Penicuikblizzard]

BBC forecast for Christmas Day, interesting most likely change before then though 

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

Another mild one, 10.3c here but 12.4c up on the Moray coast. Mean wind speed of 89mph at the summit of Cairngorm, gusting 110mph! 

Real mix of options on offer for the big day, hopefully things will settle into the cold scenario as we get into a more reliable time frame.

[johncam]

Looks like the colder blip disappearing as usual.  

[Ravelin]

3 minutes ago, johncam said:

Looks like the colder blip disappearing as usual.  

Is it? 

 

That's a week away though so could, and likely will, easily change in either direction. Anything beyond that is pure fantasy for the timebeing. 

Currently 11.1C here, yesterday varied between 9.8C and 12.2C.

[johncam]

6 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Is it? 

 

That's a week away though so could, and likely will, easily change in either direction. Anything beyond that is pure fantasy for the timebeing. 

Currently 11.1C here, yesterday varied between 9.8C and 12.2C.

I have no doubt you guys up north will get a few colder days but down here up to Sat , met don't even have us getting a frost. But has you say can change.

[Ravelin]

52 minutes ago, johncam said:

I have no doubt you guys up north will get a few colder days but down here up to Sat , met don't even have us getting a frost. But has you say can change.

I'm sure there wasn't supposed to be much in the way of cold before the very end of the week for anyone, and even here we don't get anything close to cold until after Thursday/Friday's windy spell.

Check what Yr.No and XC Weather show for Coatbridge. Both are pretty much raw model outputs, former ECM output, latter GFS. They can vary from run to run, quite wildly at times, so take them with a pinch of salt. MetO forecasts in the short term, say  a couple of days, are good, but I find the further ahead they go the more they 'average out' the temps, and they rarely show much in the way of precipitation more than a day or two ahead unless it's frontal. As the days gets closer, then during winter the MetO forecast almost always trends the temp down as a colder period approaches. 

Currently MetO have Alford at max/min 4/1 for Fri and 3/0 Sat, but I'll not be at all surprised if by Wed those, are both forecast a couple of degrees lower at least. 

Edited December 17, 2023 by Ravelin

[johncam]

11 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I'm sure there wasn't supposed to be much in the way of cold before the very end of the week for anyone, and even here we don't get anything close to cold until after Thursday/Friday's windy spell.

Check what Yr.No and XC Weather show for Coatbridge. Both are pretty much raw model outputs, former ECM output, latter GFS. They can vary from run to run, quite wildly at times, so take them with a pinch of salt. MetO forecasts in the short term, say  a couple of days, are good, but I find the further ahead they go the more they 'average out' the temps, and they rarely show much in the way of precipitation more than a day or two ahead unless it's frontal. As the days gets closer, then during winter the MetO forecast almost always trends the temp down as a colder period approaches. 

Currently MetO have Alford at max/min 4/1 for Fri and 3/0 Sat, but I'll not be at all surprised if by Wed those, are both forecast a couple of degrees lower at least. 

Hope your right 

[jellybaby1969]

Charts have gone from cold to average or above for the festive period . Thur / Fri needs to be watched regarding storm potential. I still not calling it till late Monday for the festive weather .... There has been too many scenarios thrown up over the last few days.

[Hairy Celt]

Currently being forecast for gusts up to and just over 50mph for this morning. We've got a gentle breeze...

[Klippie]

Another wash-out, the temperature is around 10dec/C so not cold but it feels it...no sun forecast here till Tuesday.

Looking further ahead and before getting any hopes up remember we've seen dead cert easterlies flip with two days to go...so no toys out the pram please.

Also this might end up very cold rain for the lower levels.

 

 

[Bats32]

4 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Currently being forecast for gusts up to and just over 50mph for this morning. We've got a gentle breeze...

Another chance at perhaps a named storm on Thursday for us. A thing I've noticed recently, locally anyway is for wind speeds to not be very accurate on the forecast. We've had days where the bins have been all over the street with really high winds and we've had no warnings and the speeds have showed relatively low values, and then days where we've had warnings etc and it's been no more than a breeze. Strange.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

9 hours ago, johncam said:

I have no doubt you guys up north will get a few colder days but down here up to Sat , met don't even have us getting a frost. But has you say can change.

The prevailing weather type here is mild SW’ly wind and rain, so if you’re going to get really down every time a possible cold spell disappears from the forecast, you’re building yourself up for a lot of disappointment.

[johncam]

30 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

The prevailing weather type here is mild SW’ly wind and rain, so if you’re going to get really down every time a possible cold spell disappears from the forecast, you’re building yourself up for a lot of disappointment.

Don't get down at all , I am an older git so have seen many memorable winters , all you younger guys ain't gonna have the same chance in this warming climate.

[Big Gally]

I would say the ecm is a better run for Scotland! At least we have half a chance. The 23rd looks good for heavy snow! Two days before Christmas Day I would take that. At least it will more festive. 

[CameronWS]

Looks set to be one of the most interesting weeks of the year here for model watching. Potentially a storm on Thursday followed by cold air digging in, starting from the NW with potential showers and then turning Northerly. Beyond then looks like there could be some battle ground scenarios where cold air meets warm. In this set up it’s pretty certain the fronts will sweep in, it just depends how far south the cold air is. 
 

Note that none of this is guaranteed, but the possibility is there (although some sort of storm is likely). 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Aye, no bad runs. Fingers crossed. 

Hope folks tae the west are ok wi aw the rain. 

[Quinach]

Got to say, if the winter weather cannot be proper cold then the likes of today is a very acceptable alternative.

Very mild with a max of 13.9c(!!), steady SW wind and dry - though 100% Permagloom™.

Combination of the steady wind and mild air allowing hard surfaces to dry out for the first time in weeks - and the washing as well

Plenty of people out taking advantage of the clement weather.

[JamesM]

A pretty awful day with hour after hour of rain. Almost felt like it never totally got light it was so grey and dark. No idea on the temperature but feeling very mild. House was roasting with the fire on tonight.