Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[Metwatch]

Can't see why an amber warning for the rest of England wouldn't be issued by tomorrow

 

[Harveyslugger]

7 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Meteociel - Pression atmosphérique observée en temps réel en Atlantique

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Pression atmosphérique en temps réel des stations de France et des pays limitrophes.

You can change the location as well, so will change to UK once we get into tomorrow.

The great thing about this chart is it is a blend, so it takes model output as a starting point, but adjusts it based on real observations. At this stage, I expect that small variations in the track and depth of the storm at various points will have major impacts, probably faster than models will be able to pick up.

 

Thankyou!

[WYorksWeather]

I think someone posted somewhere that the Met Office FAX chart expected 968mb by midnight, which looks pretty much as expected.

With that, I'm signing off, so let's see where we are in the morning...

[Snowshine]

1 hour ago, Metwatch said:

Can't see why an amber warning for the rest of England wouldn't be issued by tomorrow

 

Probably as they should be more certain by tomorrow.

[Weather-history]

I keep thinking back to January 1968. That went from cold wintry weather rapidly to mild and stormy. Hopefully, Scotland won't be hit by such a storm again

ICON 0z doesn't look great for the Forth/Clyde valley

[snefnug]

14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I keep thinking back to January 1968. That went from cold wintry weather rapidly to mild and stormy. Hopefully, Scotland won't be hit by such a storm again

ICON 0z doesn't look great for the Forth/Clyde valley

I’m not good on charts, but looking at METO for my area (NE Wales near Llangollen), it seems to me that it comes in a tad earlier and moves more swiftly through?

[Beverley Lass]

From the BBC 'X' / Twitter

 

[sunnijim]

9 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I think it's safe to say a Winter Gale is going to visit our shores tomorrow night. Probably not historical,  ,but noteworthy. .....

I think that is where we are at again this morning.

GFS still not buying into the more extreme potential for the central belt and NW Scotland...

Time will tell which model is calling that issue correctly.

Good agreement on the bigger picture across the UK.

Amber seems to be in the correct places.

.Northern and Western England

SE coast of England.

Imo coastal warning areas are reasonably ready for this, no great issue with 70mph gusts as they are a reasonably regular winter occurrence.

The inland areas under amber in Northern parts perhaps more impactful.

A slight proviso to all of the above is the longevity of gusts pushing 70mph or a touch higher, 5hrs potentially is noteworthy and a much rarer occurrence even on coasts.

I would be surprised at any modifications  to warnings going by overnight model output and the updated met office fax.

[Snowyowl9]

15 hours ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

Really must have missed the Jan 2nd storm let alone the rest.

What storm was that only a brief 30 min severe squall with no damage here..

No severe gales have reached here yet..but tonight is the first..

[Donna3397]

I’m right on the SE coast and its not usual to have rough weather especially not wind but it’s been almost consistent this year. The severity has also seemed to of of changed this year as well. Most storms that have come through have been 60+ . My wash line has been up and down like a yo-yo this year. 

Edited January 21 by Donna3397

[minus10]

Yes widespread wind event later today...wouldnt want to be travelling up or down the country later...

[If Wishes made Weather]

5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes widespread wind event later today...wouldnt want to be travelling up or down the country later...

As far as I can see, all models to one degree or another are showing this belt of stronger inland winds between the Severn and the Wash.  Notable for the places that would be affected.  Here the GFS showing up to 120kmh at 10m height.  MO app at various places throughout this area showing 55mph ground level and appears to be the lowest.  As noted by Snowshine above, the move to an amber alert at just be one of certainty in the predicted area. 

[Thunders]

14 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

I’m right on the SE coast and its not usual to have rough weather especially not wind but it’s been almost consistent this year. The severity has also seemed to of of changed this year as well. Most storms that have come through have been 60+ . My wash line has been up and down like a yo-yo this year. 

I’ve noticed that aswell tbh

[Cambrian]

0z UKMO for the next 36 hours has the storm tracking slightly further south than yesterday’s runs. Gusts of 75mph or more possible pretty much anywhere up the western sides of the UK and Ireland late on Sunday into the early hours of Monday. 

A pocket of more violent winds, with gusts in excess of 90mph pushing across Ireland during this evening, up the Irish Sea into Cardigan Bay and northwest Wales before midnight, on to northwest England by the early hours of tomorrow, transferring to central Scotland in the hours leading up to dawn.

  

Southsouthwesterly winds peaking as they veer more westerly, the strongest winds on the back edge of the front as it clears through. An exceptional storm because of the strength and duration of the winds across so many inland areas, could be very disruptive indeed.

All accompanied by heavy, lashing rain, 3-4 inches of rain in for the high ground, parts of northwest Wales, northwest England, southern Scotland, but around 2 inches widely. 

Isha looks like it’s going to be one nasty Atlantic winter storm and well worth all the warnings. Batten down the hatches everyone, and be safe.

[Bristawl Si]

Looks like this area is in the 'sweet spot' for a spell of severe gusting winds.

Bins already placed behind garage, as our side path faces south west, and it acts like a 'magnet' for gusts in these conditions.

[stripeyfox]

Just now, Bristawl Si said:

Looks like this area is in the 'sweet spot' for a spell of severe gusting winds.

Bins already placed behind garage, as our side path faces south west, and it acts like a 'magnet' for gusts in these conditions.

Yeah, i've just made my bins "safe". Don't need the shame of my drinking and eating habits displayed for the entire street to see 

[January Snowstorm]

Red warnings now issued by Met Eireann for the Northwest of Ireland!! Galway, Mayo, Donegal 

[Paul]

Latest update from @Jo Farrow

 

[IanT]

It’s winter here in the UK.

A storm can be a storm without being historic.

A cold spell can be a cold spell without being historic - as we have just seen.

Would it benefit us to return to a time when forecasts were forecasts without hype?

 

[Wivenswold]

26 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

I’m right on the SE coast and its not usual to have rough weather especially not wind but it’s been almost consistent this year. The severity has also seemed to of of changed this year as well. Most storms that have come through have been 60+ . My wash line has been up and down like a yo-yo this year. 

It does seem to be the bit of Kent that juts out into the Channel that gets the worst. My mate up the road from you says pretty much the same thing as you.
Fingers crossed you all stay damage-free down there today.

[stripeyfox]

Just now, IanT said:

It’s winter here in the UK.

A storm can be a storm without being historic.

A cold spell can be a cold spell without being historic - as we have just seen.

Would it benefit us to return to a time when forecasts were forecasts without hype?

 

well this is probably a bit of an echo chamber in here which drives the "hype" but the average bear is probably pretty much oblivious to the "build up" to an event.

 

 

 

 

[WalsallWeather]

4 minutes ago, IanT said:

It’s winter here in the UK.

A storm can be a storm without being historic.

A cold spell can be a cold spell without being historic - as we have just seen.

Would it benefit us to return to a time when forecasts were forecasts without hype?

 

Agree on a lot of storms, I think we name too many, however this is bringing widespread gusts across the entire UK for a prolonged period, it deserves to be talked about. 

[Petorious]

6 minutes ago, IanT said:

It’s winter here in the UK.

A storm can be a storm without being historic.

A cold spell can be a cold spell without being historic - as we have just seen.

Would it benefit us to return to a time when forecasts were forecasts without hype?

 

Agree with this on many occasions, not so much for todays events! Yes it may not be completely historic but it may be up there with the top ten. The sheer widespread of this storm and the longevity is what is a cause for concern. 

[TEITS]

Must admit my location doesn't generally suffer from strong winds. However to me it looks as though 70-75mph gusts are possible and i'm surprised the Met O only have a yellow warning of 55mph gusts.

Im worried as a couple of years ago we had our roof replaced by a bunch of kids being employed by some cowboys. Never feels secure and I can often hear a rattling above my head in the bedroom when it's just breezy!

[Schnee]

9 minutes ago, IanT said:

It’s winter here in the UK.

A storm can be a storm without being historic.

A cold spell can be a cold spell without being historic - as we have just seen.

Would it benefit us to return to a time when forecasts were forecasts without hype?

 

I agree with this so much. 

 

Too much hype will desensitise people. When something comes around like tonight, there's a risk of people thinking it's more of the same.