Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[Mapantz]

Wind forecasts for tonight have decreased slightly for here.

[Thunders]

strongest gust here is 4.5 mph, this will increase within the next 4 hours 

[Fiona Robertson]

Just something that I thought I'd mention in the face of peeps complaining about accuracy of warning areas. Look up Lorenz, differential equations, chaos theory and butterfly effect, so-called because of the shapeof the graph that his equations generated.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Thunders said:

strongest gust here is 4.5 mph, this will increase within the next 4 hours 

I've just had 51mph.

[Fiona Robertson]

9 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Great what Time about dies the cold front pass Cumbria 

I couldn't find the cold front with a map and detailed instructions.

[Marcus_surfer]

Breezy here at the moment. Mumbles head gusting to around 35mph. Expecting the worst of the winds from 6pm till 12am tonight. 70mph looks quite likely for mumbles 

[NickyB]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

I've just had 51mph.

Is the worst of this still predicted to be mid evening onwards do you know?

 

[Thunders]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I've just had 51mph.

im guessing your either in scotland or ireland 

[Alderc 2.0]

11 minutes ago, birdman said:

Bournemouth V Liverpool kicks off at 1630. Bit surprised this hasn't been postponed already from a travelling fans perspective more than trying to control a football

My son is going to the game this afternoon with his grandad (as usual) half  his under 9s football team will be there too. They had some shocking conditions at times at games there this season. This afternoon looks like a similar occurrence.

[Taylorthesnowman]

21 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Watching now. Expect drama!

Going to get home and watch this

[StingJet]

33 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Great what Time about dies the cold front pass Cumbria 

Looking at the Wind flow for St. Bees Head , winds peak from the SSW around 2100hrs (ahead of the CF)  by midnight the winds have eased a notch and veered WSW (behind the CF)  (GFS Data)

Upon cross referencing with MetO Data ,  suggestive of peak winds earlier  - 1900/2000 hrs

Edited January 21 by StingJet

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, Taylorthesnowman said:

Going to get home and watch this

Not sure there will be much too see the strongest winds are not until after Heathrow will have closed for the day ….?!

[Thunder Snow]

Just been round the back and front garden securing items hopefully just a precaution. However already getting quite gusty now and heavy rain

[emmett garland]

56 flights cancelled at Dublin airport and 7 flights diverted already and warning not in force until 5pm.. It begins and its hooting a gale here currently.

[saintkip]

11 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

My son is going to the game this afternoon with his grandad (as usual) half  his under 9s football team will be there too. They had some shocking conditions at times at games there this season. This afternoon looks like a similar occurrence.

Can the stadium fit that many people?

[StingJet]

12z Fax .. 

 

[kate1]

1 minute ago, StingJet said:

12z Fax .. 

 

Is this in line with expectations? (Sorry, am not great at interpreting the fax charts)

 

[Penguin16]

Red warning possible?

[Bats32]

Torrential rain here in the Central belt of Scotland and has been for about an hour or so Winds don't seem too bad so far quite light tbh, locally anyway. Guess the strong winds will come later.

Edited January 21 by Bats32

[Somerset girl]

The garden is as safe as can be ,  the gusts picking up in intensity as I tidied away .

I'm inland so not expecting as bad as on the coasts but it's still bad enough .

 

 

 

 

[Thunder Snow]

Winds are ramping up here now

[StingJet]

27 minutes ago, kate1 said:

Is this in line with expectations? (Sorry, am not great at interpreting the fax charts)

 

Of sorts    although Isha a little deeper on 12z @957mb currently at 959mb or thereabouts, and we have the upper trough (outline triangles) embedded between Surface warm front and surface cold front

Like you .. I'm not a huge fan of the Fax Charts other than providing a general overview of the next few days and a comparison of previous fax charts for the same time stamp ....  nigh on useless for real time tracking as the update time interval is too great, we're down to observational data for tracking unfolding weather events like Isha 

Edited January 21 by StingJet

[Eagle Eye]

Let's talk severe hail potential as well. Low CAPE weakens that potential especially given that means lack of vertical depth of convective availability, weakening the updraft speed. However updraft speed and hail size is an overdone rhetoric when it's updraft width combined w/the energy. Yes updraft speed can contribute but generally I find updraft width + low freezing temps helps. Especially w/non Supercellular hail. Weak LLS and strong DLS can also contribute. Multiple combining cells inducing strong momentum in a buoyant environment is generally the best given non-Supercellular severe hail setup in a C shaped hodo environment type. 

Taking a look at the setup, this is the closest I could get with a reliable CAM's model as they don't go fully into Ireland so I won't get the convective energy part just the environment. Imagine inflow into the storm to complete the hodo and it's quite C shaped w/fairly low down freezing, the moderate LLS keeps severe hail production fairly unlikely for now it appears though. Especially given fairly normal low-level lapse-rates, so surface warning effects are theoretically quite important here. A favourable for severe weather setup here is the mid level dry cap, a more typically severe hail setup than what I see here. 

Specifically modelled, here's an example. The shear stretched shower in southern Ireland has a flanking cell potentially contributing to both momentum and eventually updraft width, where the updraft widths potentially being quite wide here supporting a lot of hail embryo production and whilst more hail embryos do not necessarily mean bigger hail, the fairly random processes forming hail inside these clouds are significantly increased to normal here w/the large updraft width though weak updraft speed is still capping it off at sub-severe levels in my opinion. Though TORRO did still mention severe hail potential so we'll have to see. 

[StingJet]

[Thunder Snow]

Just drove to work there's already some branches down