Model banter and emotions

[Paul]

A thread for emotive reactions to the models outside of the scope of the model discussion thread. If you want to moan about the models or ramp up the models etc, then this is the ideal thread for you. 

Please have a read of the model thread guidelines for more info on what model discussion is and what sort of post may be better suited to this thread:

https://community.netweather.tv/model-discussion-guidelines/

 

[TillyS]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

A thread for emotive reactions to the models outside of the scope of the model discussion thread. If you want to moan about the models or ramp up the models etc, then this is the ideal thread for you. 

Please have a read of the model thread guidelines for more info on what model discussion is and what sort of post may be better suited to this thread:

https://community.netweather.tv/model-discussion-guidelines/

 

This has made me laugh . A great idea. A sort of angst-dump for the snow-starved but also perhaps with moments of euphoria when something unimaginable (cold and snow?!) materialises.

Anyhow, that big bad Atlantic beast is about to blow his (her?) fury at us again. Batten down the hatches Sunday in the north-west because according to the 12z UKMO it has your name on it.

We’re about to go from one extreme to another in a couple of days. Two bitterly cold nights, with further heavy snow in Scotland, to the full onslaught of Atlantic zonality and very mild conditions at times.

Oh, this mad, mad, island. Would you really want it any other way? An Arctic tundra? An arid desert?

[78/79]

2 hours ago, TillyS said:

This has made me laugh . A great idea. A sort of angst-dump for the snow-starved but also perhaps with moments of euphoria when something unimaginable (cold and snow?!) materialises.

Anyhow, that big bad Atlantic beast is about to blow his (her?) fury at us again. Batten down the hatches Sunday in the north-west because according to the 12z UKMO it has your name on it.

We’re about to go from one extreme to another in a couple of days. Two bitterly cold nights, with further heavy snow in Scotland, to the full onslaught of Atlantic zonality and very mild conditions at times.

Oh, this mad, mad, island. Would you really want it any other way? An Arctic tundra? An arid desert?

 A  continental climate would suit me down to the ground.     it's the endless rain . and wind that  drives me to distraction, probably because I have to work out in it.

[Wade]

Ouch the gfs run tonight is as bad as you can get really for winter/cold/snow lovers, no shifting that pattern quickly but on the bright side at least it will be dry and comfortably mild.

[Lord Grogon]

41 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gem is interesting. What it does between 26th and 28th I’m not sure ive seen happen before in reality. Others may well be able to recall a time when it did.

other than another move away from a flat pattern there’s still much inconsistency. Fascinating.

 

43 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gem is interesting. What it does between 26th and 28th I’m not sure ive seen happen before in reality. Others may well be able to recall a time when it did.

other than another move away from a flat pattern there’s still much inconsistency. Fascinating.

Anything from a rabbit to a skipping lamb judging by these pics. 

[festivalking]

36 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

Precarious if you ask me. I'm waiting for a NLy reload! 

Love the hebrides go all the time never seen it in the snow though. Seeing loads of photos of the islands covered. Guessing this northerly set up is the perfect one for you. 

The mood music on the models and here are favoring the potential of the scandi heights.  An easterly over the hebrides is password for sun sun sun!!!  If you can't have snow the next best thing.

Good luck with the stormy weather up there next week!

[Ladyofthestorm]

1 minute ago, festivalking said:

Love the hebrides go all the time never seen it in the snow though. Seeing loads of photos of the islands covered. Guessing this northerly set up is the perfect one for you. 

The mood music on the models and here are favoring the potential of the scandi heights.  An easterly over the hebrides is password for sun sun sun!!!  If you can't have snow the next best thing.

Good luck with the stormy weather up there next week!

Bless you. Yes we always missed the snow events of 2018 . Beasterly beautiful and cold and sunny. 

I'm sure winter will reload again 

[Saint coolio]

the weather and me the day after I stopped looking for snow in the model thread:

 

 

#ifyouknowyouknow1989

 

Edited January 18 by Saint coolio
added #hashtag

[Rain All Night]

@Catacol At the end of Nov/beginning of Dec, in my location I got 4 consecutive days of appreciably below average temperatures, whereas by the weekend I will have had 14 consecutive days this time around, so for me this has been a "spell" rather than a "snap". Is the difference that my location was more affected by the initial easterly than yours?

Edit: I've just looked back and found that January 2024 will have had the longest unbroken stretch of cold days in January in my location since 2010 (in 2013 it was apparently "only" 13 consecutive days, though of course those days were much colder than the ones this year!)

Edited January 18 by RainAllNight

[Catacol]

4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

@Catacol At the end of Nov/beginning of Dec, in my location I got 4 consecutive days of appreciably below average temperatures, whereas by the weekend I will have had 14 consecutive days this time around, so for me this has been a "spell" rather than a "snap". Is the difference that my location was more affected by the initial easterly than yours?

Yep maybe. I guess I’m not really counting cold that landed before Sunday approx around here. It was chilly the week before but nothing to shout about. And further south you may have had more easterly chill whereas the midlands north were under the centre of the high. Proper cold will end up being a 4/5 day thing here.

Cannon fodder out this far, but interesting pub shape tonight. The details will be off, but the general message is right. You’ll have Dorset cold again before long.

Feb 1996 when I lived just outside Dorchester is one of my fondest winter memories…

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Feb 1996 when I lived just outside Dorchester is one of my fondest winter memories…

I was a child in the 90s, and the cold spells we got in each winter from 1994 to 1997 (all of which reached us down here on the south coast) led my innocent self to imagine that I would grow up seeing cold weather far more often than I actually have done!!

[Mapantz]

I haven't particularly been impressed by the cold for here. I don't mean in terms of snow, just temperatures. No crazy minima, and max temperatures have been between 4 and 8°C.

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I haven't particularly been impressed by the cold for here. I don't mean in terms of snow, just temperatures. No crazy minima, and max temperatures have been between 4 and 8°C.

I will agree it has been disappointing compared to December 2022, when we had proper ice days. That spell was great, even without snow.

[Mapantz]

Just now, RainAllNight said:

 That spell was great, even without snow.

I had about 3cm here, and it stayed on the ground for 3 or 4 days.

Looking at my data for the past 10 days, it's not even close to last January. 16th - 25th. A succession of harder frosts and lower average temperatures.

[E17boy]

I can feel a little uneasiness with us coldies this evening and it’s not a surprise. We all knew our cold was going and milder weather was on the cards next week. Despite this me myself still had that hope that yes this mild blip will come and be here for 2 weeks or more and then eventually we will get to see cold weather return and I am not saying I have lost that hope. Deep inside I am still crying and hoping that in the next 2 weeks we might see something pop up of more i interest for us coldies. However there are 2 main things that are making this Hope even harder.

1 - if it was still the beginning of January then maybe it would not hit so hard as in our minds we would know there is still a lot of winter left. However today is the 19th iof Jan and February is round the corner time will be a concern. Taking into account we don’t see any positive shifts then it will be the weeks in February we will be praying in desperation for one last chance

2- from what the more knowledgeable are saying there is still no signal yet if very little if any of any pattern change to cold in the next 2 weeks, and outside factors are not being favourable at the moment.

This is not a post saying winter is over or anything but it’s just an insight as to what we are facing in the coming weeks. As with all of you me is hoping that come this time next week there will be some more positivity on the horizon . We have seen that patterns can change suddenly but many times we are the unlucky ones where we have a sudden change from cold to mild but we don’t often see that change the opposite way round.

In the meantime no doubt the wind and rain will be making some headlines.

take care all 

[blizzard81]

23 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I thought tonight's update looked slightly better than recent runs.  However, need it to gain some traction.

You're right Don. Traction is a good word. A little surprised that nobody else has mentioned the improvement - model fatigue? . Where is the stamina these days? 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

You're right Don. Traction is a good word. A little surprised that nobody else has mentioned the improvement - model fatigue? . Where is the stamina these days? 

Most likely model fatigue!  I don't think it would be so bad if more parts of the country had experienced decent snow events this week! 

Edited January 19 by Don

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Most likely model fatigue!  I don't think it would be so bad if more parts of the country had experienced decent snow events this week! 

Absolutely mate. It really has been a disappointing cold spell on that front hasn't it? It deserved so much more. 

[blizzard81]

Just now, Singularity said:

For broad patterns they have value if not taken too literally, more as a suggestion which way the weather patterns will attempt to go. After all, the MJO is one of many forcing factors. That’s why we don’t see forecast models just following MJO composites even at 7+ days lead time when there here & now becomes increasingly less relevant I.e. persistence of the near term pattern tendency becomes increasingly inaccurate.

Long story short, while I can see plenty of scope for a high to set up over Scandinavia by early Feb, I think it’s a lot more up in the air whether it’s positioned & orientated in a way that’s notably cold for the UK (let alone snowy). The HLB dominated seasonal modelling for Feb is very intriguing in this regard - it seems it must be tied to subsequent developments… but can we trust that those will come through? If only it was that easy!

I think everyone is clueless to be honest lol. 

[Don]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Absolutely mate. It really has been a disappointing cold spell on that front hasn't it? It deserved so much more. 

It certainly has.  I woke up to a dusting Monday and that was it!  Biggest let down imo was for the south with that low going through France!

[blizzard81]

Just now, Don said:

It certainly has.  I woke up to a dusting Monday and that was it!  Biggest let down imo was for the south with that low going through France!

Must admit... My empathy side came out there for them. Not often that happens

[STORMWATER]

Extremely disappointing model watching this winter, yes we had our coldest night last night but no snow whatsoever.  Looking at the next week or so it's wind and rain all the way, I can't see any hope in the models for the next 2 weeks or so, hopefully, it will change for the better for us coldies, because once mid-March comes then I just have no interest in the weather.

[Don]

10 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Must admit... My empathy side came out there for them. Not often that happens

Lol and so much for the low going south and keeping the cold in longer.  Did it heck as like! 

[weathercold]

Let’s not dress this up - we are staring down the barrel at seeing out Jan mild to exceptionally mild and then we hit Feb.

This winter thus far for most has been non existent if cold and snow is your thing. We have had a cold 5 days in London (wow wow mid winter), temps above freezing and not a flake of snow. Remember- we chased this week for many weeks - epic fail. Other areas have had a cold week too a little snow, nothing major.

When you consider Dec was a totally blank winter month, and now we are looking to Feb as the last throw of those dice …we are in desperate territory now.  Zero signal for cold into Feb currently with the vortex right where we don’t want it.

Considering all the hype by some posters on here and some pro’s this winter is proving to be a total fail based on those wintry predictions.

For all those background signals going into winter it’s counted for very little. I fully expect Feb to come in above average temp wise and then we look to early spring for some warmth …let’s hope. 
 

Some will label this post downbeat, it’s realism to me. This winter is a bust sadly…added to a long long list spanning many years. Let’s hope 24/25 will change that run. 

[weathercold]

Charts this morning are as sobering as they get if cold and snow is your thing.

You would be a brave person to call Feb anything but mild right now.

Winter 23/24 going out without a wintry fight? 
 

Another epic forecasting bust likely based on some of the early season predictions by many of the experts/pro’s.