Model banter and emotions

[TEITS]

4 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Charts this morning are as sobering as they get if cold and snow is your thing.

You would be a brave person to call Feb anything but mild right now.

Winter 23/24 going out without a wintry fight? 
 

Another epic forecasting bust likely based on some of the early season predictions by many of the experts/pro’s.

Rather foolish , considering Feb is still 10 days away, to be basing your predictions for Feb solely on this mornings output. I haven't checked the models for 48hrs but did note the E,ly has gone AWOL. 

As for an "epic forecasting bust". Regardless of what happens for the rest of this winter I admire and respect anyone who makes a forecast using whatever methods they use. The UK is probably one of the most difficult locations in the world for weather forecasting. That applies to short,medium,long range forecasts.

I have tried to take a more practical, balanced approach this winter. I read and take note of the excellent contributions from the likes of Tamara, Catacol, Metcast, Eagleeye and then combine to see if the operational output agrees with some of the teleconnection signals. I then finally combine these two with the ensembles etc, and also the Met O long range forecast.

Sometimes I ignore the above and just predict an E,ly which has recently disappeared as quickly as the support for the conservative party.

[Badders]

45 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

My gut feeling is in terms of cold we can write this winter off, yes a bit early days but looking at the ECM the Atlantic is more fired up than it has been all winter. Historically of recent winters after a cold/chilly spell in January and the synoptics become more +NAO thereafter there's no way back into February, not counting out cooler spells with Pm incursions but that's nothing out of the ordinary. 

Happy to be proved wrong...but that's where my money would lay.

Hahah! The first "winter is over" post on the 21st of January during the heart of winter, with potentially 9/10 weeks of winter happenings left to go!

[Sherry]

Looking pretty mild for the rest of January and the start of feb, looks like this winter will end up milder than average 

would take something truly special to change that and looking at models currently no signals being shown 

[E17boy]

Morning peeps

Well here we are back to the drawing board and yet another storm to hit us today but this one does not look as fierce as storm Isha. I am trying to look at any change in the horizon in desperation now as most of us now are.  The 2 major n problems are the PV and the Iberian heights yes once again this slug has changed our pattern and past history tells us these setups can last for weeks and as some have mentioned it’s the worst situation we can be in especially this far in winter. Until we don’t see some shifts in the PV and these heights down south we are stuck in a rut. The extended output is not showing any hope yet but we live it day by day that maybe tomorrow will bring a turnaround.  I know the biggest concern is the time it’s ticking we need something to give in the next week or so to give us any hope as we enter February.  Here in London we have at least seen some flakes of snow this season so far but that is it, however I despair those who are yet to see their first flakes. There is me fingers crossed and living in the hope that the weather gods will take some pity and we will see some change soon.  As it goes winter it’s just another day without you.
 

regards

[Methuselah]

@Penrith Snow @Penrith Snow

Quote

Members

 809

Location: Penrith Cumbria

Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers

Posted 30 minutes ago

I a  not sure Singularity is correct about the Iberien High being a response not a cause, its chicken and egg.

Check out a 100 years of historical data pre 1988 and you won't find such a massive and persistent Iberain/Mediterranean High as we see modelled now, it just didn't happen and of course the current persistant Bartlett is only the latest in a long line since the 1999's.

IMO, the Iberian High dominance is due to the expansion of the sub tropical Hadley Cell in response to a warming world, the expanse forces the Jet Stream north preventing the PV leaving its natural home ie Greenland, it happens occasionally of course like last week but any change is pushing againt the new normal and is quickly crushed.

This I feel is the over riding factor and overwhelmes other natural signals that might encourage Northern Blocking, hence the late January early February forecast debacle.

Watch the MJO if you like but it will make little difference 

Andy

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5022897

Well, somehow, I did it, I think! 

But what I wanted to say, or at least suggest, is that everything (be it the living world or weather/climate) is both a response to or driver of energy-transfer, the ultimate driver being the input from the sun? 

[blizzard81]

@Don just my opinion of course Don but I'm getting increasingly confident that you won't have to wait until the second half of February. 

[Don]

@blizzard81 Well, needless to say I hope that's the case!  

[Relativistic]

9 hours ago, Methuselah said:

But what I wanted to say, or at least suggest, is that everything (be it the living world or weather/climate) is both a response to or driver of energy-transfer, the ultimate driver being the input from the sun? 

Yep. Everything on Earth and in its atmosphere is just some ultra-complex looping circuit of nonequilibrium currents, in which any subcircuit drives, and is driven by, its environment.

So 'driver' is a very broad term indeed

[abovefreezing]

You know they are really clutching at straws over there when someone mentions 'teleconnections'.

The Tarot card of chasing bitter cold and long lasting, disrputive snow weather modelling.

Edited January 25 by abovefreezing

[knocker]

The latest longer range output is pretty much in agreement with the expected movement of the tpv lobe to NE Europe. Lovely jubbly

500 hPa height and 2m temp Weekly mean anomalies and little precipitation

Edited January 25 by knocker

[TEITS]

Disappointed with the model output. Although im struggling to find much consistency. I am also struggling to find anything to suggest a cold spell. At the moment the best I can see is maybe colder W/NW,lys into the 2nd week of Feb. This would be great if I lived at a location such as Cumbria but not for a location such as mine that is as flat as a pancake in E Anglia.

I'm also disappointed with the Met O forecast. The suggested cold N or E winds that was forecasted for early Feb has since been put back to mid Feb and now late Feb, As someone once suggested to me, can you claim success for a forecast that keeps being delayed?

Times like this I do envy those who live in locations such as Cumbria. I think it was OON who recently posted someone wonderful landscape pictures of the snow on the hills in Cumbria.

[blizzard81]

  @Uncertainty Indeed Mr Uncertainty! Also ties in nicely with all those seasonal forecasts gunning for the back loaded winter. All is not yet lost. 

[Don]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really hope we get a nationwide cold spell in Febuary..

It's certainly been a slog but lets hope it will be worth it in the end, even if we have missed the core winter period!

[blizzard81]

  @Don It is frustrating with January being a continual winter Grinch these last 3 decades but February has often carried on in the same vain. I really don't think that will be the case this year

[Don]

  @blizzard81

I was very pessimistic ref to the rest of winter early in the week.  Although my interest has been restored somewhat during the last few days, I'm very mindful of the let downs endured so far!

[blizzard81]

  @Don Hard not to think that way lol..... Snowflakeless England lol. I'm hopeful - The output today has looked good to me today. 

[Don]

  @blizzard81 Yes and the EC46 still not looking bad either for mid February onwards.

[jules216]

  @daz_4 yes, I must say despite running 19 station in Slovakian frost hollows and invested 1000s of € its the second winter in a row not one clear night happened under snow cover at my favorite station for second winter in a row! Taking all the pluses and minuses of recent winters and summers since 2017 I must admit personally I am slowly also transforming in to one that prefers summers but a warm dry ones and I am happen to live in the region of most thundery occurence in central Europe in Slovak Karst national park which is like a ticking bômb when hot air from Hungary meets first high mountains of Slovakia and you get this sudden wind shear and boom. So its actually spring and autumn stable +27°C which i like the most.

[Nick123]

Time to look forward to lighter nights and mornings, flowers blooming and green trees. 

[carinthian]

Clear blue skies this morning over The Austrian Alps. Going by the chart below , that will be the way for much of this coming week but getting warmer as the week progresses. Slow changes for all. Looks like 7 days before any cold arrives back in The British Isles ( if ever it does ). Current model watching like being compared to the Chinese water drip punishment for us coldies ! However, on a more optimistic note the team of experts over inform me their longer term chart indicate much colder conditions to head down from the North for most in 10 days with an uptick in snow potential for the British Isles.The long wait continues !

C

[ANYWEATHER]

44 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Time to look forward to lighter nights and mornings, flowers blooming and green trees. 

Indeed! Yes Spring has got to be the most beautiful time of year! I was born in the Spring ,and I cant wait for it to arrive ,just having some lighter days and it getting dark at a reasonable time ,not silly 0 clock in the winter or silly 0 clock in summer where it gets light to early and stays light to late ,and can be as irritating as the winter darkness. Anyway roll on.?...

[SLEETY]

Let's just scrap this winter now, nothing to suggest deep cold is hitting the UK anytime season. No surprise  anymore. 

[SLEETY]

  @Kasim Awan nothing new there anymore then. 

Are you scrapping this winter now, your probably see some decent Snowfall when spring arrives at your altitude, such is the way of the seasons in the UK now. 

[knocker]

  @SLEETY

I can't believe winters over...........I'm totally gutted 

[Kasim Awan]

  @SLEETY I scrapped this Winter a long time ago (for anything major). Yeah Spring often delivers here.

Edited January 28 by Kasim Awan