Model banter and emotions

[raz.org.rain]

With an SSW seemingly imminent for mid March, which way is it likely to go? 50/50 chances on an early warm spring or an extension of winter. Cold displacement currently favours eastern/southeastern Europe as its trajectory over the coming weeks and Azores highs continue to edge closer to our shores, so I'd personally go with an SSW displacing cold into Eastern Europe rather than Western Europe.

Edited February 28 by raz.org.rain

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Coldmarch I don't want one either! I'll cry! And the cloud can sod off with it!

[raz.org.rain]

 Coldmarch contrary to the narrative, an SSW is by no means a guarantee of cold for our part of the world. It could just as easily go the other way.

[Sky Blues fan]

 *Stormforce~beka* too right, I need some sun I’m so pale I look like One of them zombies from I am legend

[Sky Blues fan]

 raz.org.rain I agree a sudden, stratospheric warming doesn’t mean cold, well not always or even sometimes

[Daniel*]

First day of spring in Ireland you couldn’t make it up!

 

[raz.org.rain]

Despite some eye candy charts, nothing particularly extraordinary either way turning up in the reliables. Nothing exceptionally cold, nothing exceptionally warm. More or less a continuation of the same - slightly above average temperatures overall. Continuation of rain but not to the same degree as February.

[manxshepherd]

Mountain shut delay to racing 

[Daydream Boy]

 Lukesluckybunch No! Not good to see! Lol

It is now March and we desperately need warmer, sunnier and drier weather! 

[Rain All Night]

Points for effort.

[WYorksWeather]

One raised eyebrow here - do I spy something beginning with 'P', coming up from the south from day 10 onwards? Low probability for now, but worth keeping an eye on for sure.

[Don]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

One raised eyebrow here - do I spy something beginning with 'P', coming up from the south from day 10 onwards?

Poo? 

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather more likely to see that than a delayed spring I'd say

[MP-R]

 WYorksWeather

Potential Thunderstorms I hope!

[snowblizzard]

February temperature anomalies for the majority of Europe were stunning.  

Warm, warm, warm!     

Edited March 7 by snowblizzard

[Downburst]

It's quite in here. Models including the long range seem to suggest a slow burner spring, with high to the north and low to the south, good chance of a slightly wetter start to spring in the south, but perhaps just average and maybe again slightly + average temps. I'm no fan of easterly or brisk southerly winds in Spring if they hang on for weeks at end, but this picture suggests they will be part of the experience a lot. The ECM monthly long range shows late spring early summer high to the east of England, again with easterlies. It's all easterlies.

The muti model long range is out and that looks very average out to June, with May 0.5 to 1.0 + temp anomaly, but what's new about that. 

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/

[Djdazzle]

I'm hoping the models start to pick up something settled and warmer soon. The past 6 - 7 weeks have been the vilest period of weather I can remember. Nothing warm, nothing cold - just endless unsettled crud, lack of sunshine and too much rainfall.

The good news is that this pattern will end at some point.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Djdazzle Not sure it will. It's been crudland since last March! For the last year ...

[ANYWEATHER]

UkV predictions for rainfall at around 5pm today which it nearly is and again it vastly underestimates the rainfall. If you look at the actual live radar the UkV is clearly wrong again

[Summer8906]

 Djdazzle 6-7 weeks... more like 8-9 months!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Summer8906 12 months ...