Model banter and emotions

[Gowon]

 nick sussex

I'm truly getting worn out with this constant up and down business 

 

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather As I said in the other thread, a milder version of what you described would be my own"S*d's law" forecast.

Wettest, dullest and mildest Feb on record followed by a March 2023 repeat.

As for the models, well the GFS, which was merely dull,drab and boring yesterday is now horrendous for the next week, extreme rainfall for the south by the looks of things which will only exacerbate the flooding problems. The pressure rise for midweek has just evaporated.

Better the following week but always the threat of Atlantic lows encroaching. What happens the week of the 19th will determine whether this February is one of the worst of the past 50 years or so, or just a rather bad one.

Edited February 9 by Summer8906

[mountain shadow]

 Lukesluckybunch The Iberian Desert High courtesyvof the expanded Hadley Cell due to AGW again scuppering all favourable projections and teleconnections.

The Spanish may be facing a horrendous drought. 

[raz.org.rain]

I'm still optimistic for an early spring, compliments of a SSW helping to drag some warmer Spanish air up into the UK. The outlook appears to suggest that the SSW, the probability of which has decreased anyway, is more likely to have a negligible effect on our weather. Instead we just get... more of the same. I'd rather have average than a cold March. Hopefully those supercharged Iberian highs continue to keep the colder weather at bay going into spring.

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain is it the cold that's the problem though? In my eyes it's the dull, the wet and, in fact, the excessive mildness which is the aberration from the norm, and we desperately need some cold, dry and sunny weather. Dry to mitigate the flooding risk, sunny to cheer us all up, and cold to slow down nature so we can enjoy it in spring.

The Iberian highs, and the dull, damp, gloomy SW-lies they drag up here, need to get lost IMO!

Edited February 9 by Summer8906

[johncam]

 mountain shadow that is a major concern concern for them. Barcelona's main resovior is only at 4% according to news reports 

Edited February 9 by johncam

[raz.org.rain]

The 2018 BFTE comparisons continue over on Twitter with the classic cherry picked outliers, but fair to say it's starting to wear thin with even the most ardent cold fans. Meanwhile here, there's a greater sense of reality.

Edited February 9 by raz.org.rain

[joggs]

To me,it's more or less nailed on that end of winter is gonna be average with the odd cool spell and mild spell. This is going by the patterns this winter so far, telecon sigs not producing and the met o outlooks(I slated em for missing December cold snap)diluting colder prospect's.

I find amusing when one or two(experienced)posters in the mod thread say this is the direction of travel and this will happen by so so date..........

These have fallen flat on their faces. But you try point out  the cold bias and blinkerdness(in a decent) way using charts ect,you get a smart response lol.

Gonna avoid that thread until next silly season I think.

This season should be a learning curve for all of us but especially the, cold IS coming brigade.

Edited February 9 by joggs

[Penguin16]

 LRD Yes agreed. Flogging a dead horse springs to mind.

[KTtom]

 Penguin16 It is getting a bit uncomfortable to read now, if 'coldies' were a dog there is no way they would still be allowed to suffer this long 

Edited February 9 by KTtom

[TonyH]

 Severe Siberian icy blast Hi I think most likely that you live in Wellesbourne.

[TonyH]

 SLEETY Yes particularly should it be showing mild

[joggs]

 Gowon more down than up lol.

[Don]

4 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Never mind, next winter model watching will be much easier.  My predictions are:

• Westerly QBO winter.
• After brief northerly tease, rampant PV sets up shop over Greenland in the first week of December.
• Safe to declare winter over on 7th December and we can go and do something more productive instead.

Sounds like you've thrown the towel in for winter now, Mike?  

[Don]

1 hour ago, Derecho said:

Hopefully next winter eh coldies?

I doubt it sadly!  

[raz.org.rain]

I have to ask... around this time in 2018, what were the signals like in terms of picking up on the beast from the east? I see a lot of people hanging onto that as a possibility, but there's no strong signals for anything remotely similar. Was it the same story in 2018? Did it truly come out of nowhere?

[lassie23]

 Don next winter has been over for ages lol

[rustle]

 raz.org.raini was thinking same. And what about the frigid march 2013, which lasted into early april? raz.org.rain

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 lassie23 I bet this is soooo true!

[Don]

 lassie23 and the one after…..

[raz.org.rain]

A real sense of frustration among the meteorologists on Twitter. Fair to say, this hasn't been an easy period for making forecasts.

 

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain Here's tonight's ECM from six years ago, 12z, 10th February, 2018. Day 10 chart for 12z 20th February 2018.

I'll let you be the judge, but personally, that looks a lot better for UK cold, with cold all around us in nearly every direction except the south-west, than almost any chart I've seen for day 10 at the moment. You can also see that the Atlantic is already very firmly blocked off by this stage.

For context, the BFTE, depending on whether you start from the anticyclone formation or from its impact on the UK, started in earnest just under a week later.

[Fozfoster]

Some people in the MOD thread just can’t let it go………. And try and put a spin on it, with that many parts to the puzzle, you can always polish a   so unfortunately with so many of us chasing the holy grail. We jump on board but this is a warming planet and the chances are decreasing each year. Just my opinion. Nice and mild tomorrow for the Coventry game. Not bad for early feb. 

[SLEETY]

 Lukesluckybunch winter is done mate,see you sometime in spring when Northern blocking becomes the dominant force again

[Lukesluckybunch]

20 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

winter is done mate,see you sometime in spring when Northern blocking becomes the dominant force again

Couldnt agree more mate...fed up with these charts now!..I will be chasing some early spring warmth I think