Model banter and emotions

[Ali1977]

 northwestsnow thanks - in reality I think you’re in the best spot - especially in your new pad it’ll certainly be interesting to see how it plays out - marginal sometimes being the best thing for big falls ️ Chased a decent fall for years on here , I do feel I deserve one as many others do  cost a fortune buying in this hill

Edited February 5 by Ali1977

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

What a rubbish set of models lets hope my curries better lol

[steveinsussex]

 cheeky_monkey winter is from 22nd December to 20th March though?!

 

mid Jan is still first half of winter

[Snowboy111]

 Chasbrown for you maybe. August here, although not special, I spent most of it on the beach. September was lush. 

 steveinsussex meteorological winter is 1st dec - end of feb

[cheeky_monkey]

 steveinsussex as this is a weather forum ..most will stick to the met office definition which is as follows :

 

"at the Met Office, we use a meteorological definition of the seasons. By the meteorological calendar, the first day of winter is always 1 December; ending on 28 (or 29 during a Leap Year) February.

Meteorological seasons consist of splitting the seasons into four periods made up of three months each. These seasons are split to coincide with our Gregorian calendar, making it easier for meteorological observing and forecasting to compare seasonal and monthly statistics.

The seasons are defined as spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August), autumn (September, October, November) and winter (December, January, February)."

[WYorksWeather]

 LRD I'd probably divide into three for the 'basic' types. If the coldest month relative to average is December it's front-loaded, January would be balanced, February would be back-loaded, as a rough guide.

In terms of whether a cold spell in the second half would be sufficient to redeem the winter, it would really depend on how snowy it is. If we have something quite notable, like widespread snow cover of 5cm or more across a good chunk of the country down to sea level, which then freezes over and sticks around for at least a few days, then it'd redeem it. But 2cm of wet snow that then turns to slush in the increasing strength of the late February sun within 24 hours would just be a slap in the face - I'd genuinely take record-breaking mild over that.

[TonyH]

 Severe Siberian icy blast Hi think you misspelled Wellesbourne.

[syed2878]

Disappointing model I put today it’s always day 10 with ECM that been the story of this winter, so much positive signals, but to many failures as for next weeks wintry output from the ECMI would take it with a huge pinch of salt. Just a side note. Matt has cancelled the yellow warning for this area on Thursday.

[CoventryWeather]

I would like this shift south to continue. 

Let's hope it ends up being more than just a 12/18 hour event for much of the lower elevation areas before melting. 

[mountain shadow]

 WINTRY WALES I hope not. I would rather it stays just where it is thanks very much.

[GokouD]

 WINTRY WALES As someone in the north midlands, I'd be starting to get worried about it being too far south at that point haha.

[TomB]

 Drifter I live in England. We don't get much snow. I'll take anything.

[Frigid]

Dreadful 12z's today, no sign of anything cold. 

[Penrith Snow]

 nick sussex if something doesn't change soon it will be Netweathers last surviving members of Winter 2024 signing off

[ANYWEATHER]

Well ,was going to post some charts ,but will, add insult to injury! I never thought that a notable cold spell was incoming, but perhaps all the hype on here may be a lesson for some ,it looks like it's over before it began! Ecms performance has been shocking to be honest, 

 

 

 

[Don]

I can't see any optimism to be had for the rest of February or into March at all.  I said this a couple of weeks ago but once again was taken in by the models, but won't now, even if they go for another phantom cold spell!  The atmosphere just hasn't played ball, no matter what the teleconnections have suggested.  I suspect it's all down to climate change complicating things more and more.  You do have to ask, will we see a genuinely cold winter again?!

 

[raz.org.rain]

 Don I have a feeling we could end up with an early spring instead, and a notably warm one at that. The outputs seem to be entertaining the idea of dragging very warm isotherms out of Iberia and towards the British Isles, which coincidentally could happen around about the same time this SSW is due to happen. My running theory is that we'll end up on the warm side of the SSW and the cold will get displaced towards Scandinavia and Russia. It seems the logical bet, given how winter has played out.

[Don]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Back in the 80's that front on Thursday would have slid on it's axis and veered south/south eastwards into Europe bring in frigid easterlies. 

I'm convinced this is all down to climate change and not merely bad luck!  This is going to make future long range forecasting more and more challenging! 

As for winter, I've definitely thrown the towel in now!! 

[ANYWEATHER]

 Don it's the weather, it's been like it for thousands of years ,what did people blame it on back then?

[Don]

 raz.org.rain Same here and great news for those of you who love early warmth!

 ANYWEATHER You can't deny climate change is complicating things more and more, it's blatantly obvious!

[ANYWEATHER]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

You can't deny climate change is complicating things more and more, it's blatantly obvious!

We will agree to disagree...

[blizzard81]

 Don Yep, everything getting delayed again and again. The writing is on the wall I fear. 

[Don]

 ANYWEATHER Ok

 blizzard81 Indeed.  

[Hotspur62]

This Winter has really been a major disappointment really with seemingly so many things in our favour leading into Winter yet things seem to have gone the way of the pear.Although we still have over 3 weeks of Feb left and models still showing northern blocking from say 15th onwards i am not convinced this will happen tbh.Its been Model chaos this last 5 days and we seem to yet again gone from a cold outlook to a just average outlook for the next 7 days,espicially down here in the SE.Once we get past say 7th or 8th march down here you can forget chances of lying snow here down here although inappreciate  those up north winter can continue for a good 2-3 weeks more so good luck to those areas getting a few more bites of the cherry.If indeed come early March we are still snowless it will be a real kick in the you know whats from a snow pov and makes me question what has caused us snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

[Saint coolio]

from the less well-known “st Coolio flying from LHR” model:

- has only occurred three times in the last decade
-  but each time resulted in disruptive snowfall and a long delay for de-icing
- flights booked for 7-10 March this year
- snow inevitable

- place your bets. Free money.