Model banter and emotions

[MJB]

14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

, I'm not sure many would be happy with winter finally arriving in March

I would, not even a flake here this winter

[raz.org.rain]

 topo the dynamics are very different. Chicago is very heavily influenced by continentality, which results in a greater annual temperature gradient. Winters are often frigid, summers are often scorching. Localised factors relating to the Great Lakes also create favourable conditions for snow, on top of a bias for Arctic masses to progress southward through Canada. 
 

New York observes the cooling tendency of westerly winds. Generally speaking, the western portion of a continent will be considerably warmer than the eastern due to the warming effects of westerly progressing humid winds. Once these progress across a continental mass, they become a lot cooler and drier, so east coast locations in the US will have a plentiful supply of cooling factors. I believe the Canadian Shield and Hudson Bay are contributing factors here and favour stronger weather systems that deliver cold.

 

Compare that to the UK, which has a very strong oceanic element to its climate. We get those warm and humid westerly winds and they're fed by a warm North Atlantic. Compared to the US, our continentality bias is very much different. Our continental bias is very much a southern one, often with a very strong Iberian influence. Our climate see a much stronger influence from warmer southerly air masses, and this is particularly true for the past decade. 

[topo]

 raz.org.rain I know all these, I am just referring to the power of the sunlight. My point is that sun in March is not the core problem. Of course it is not January, but UK is north enough, to not have that issue.

[Firefly2005]

Need the AMOC to hurry up and collapse…

[raz.org.rain]

 Firefly2005 be careful what you wish for. That would almost certainly make our summers considerably hotter and drier. Winters would, in theory, get colder but also much drier. But it's a topic of debate in recent times as to how cold it could theoretically get in response to an AMOC collapse. Needless to say, the temperature anomalies observed in the Arctic kind of go against any prospect of a significant drop in temperatures. Precipitation would almost certainly disappear though.

[Jacob]

 Firefly2005 why was I thinking the exact same too

[raz.org.rain]

I'm getting the impression that a milder spell is gaining more support in the outputs. Knowing our luck, that'll mean more rain. Ideally we want a nice warm spell with plenty of sunshine. Time to start the offerings to the weather deities I think!

[ANYWEATHER]

 Firefly2005 No ,you really wouldn't want that......

[sorepaw1]

I see some mild weather on the 12z better than this 4.oC and heavy rain. 

14.oC and a mild SW airflow yes please.  I've written this winter off now, roll on spring. 

[raz.org.rain]

translation: radical change for the ECMWF weekly model, it's now four weeks of mild and rain.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

fallout member and snooker champion won't agree, sorepaw1, I do though ready for warmth now

Edited February 8 by I remember Atlantic 252

[raz.org.rain]

Interesting signs here. Something milder on the horizon?

Edited February 9 by raz.org.rain

[lassie23]

winter is over

[raz.org.rain]

 lassie23 it's not great news when the last minute winter saviours are starting to go in disappointing directions.

[Mullet]

Talk of an SSW makes me shudder at this stage of winter. 

All that really means to me is a potential cold spring with no warmth for weeks. 

No thanks!

[raz.org.rain]

 Mullet if it's any consolation, there's no consistent agreement over how the SSW will affect us. Everything between cold, mild and no effect at all seem to be on the table. Given that the strength of those Iberian heights show no sign of weakening any time soon, I'm personally assuming that nothing notably cold will come our way... and if it does, we'll just get cold rain or a bog standard cold spell. The latest outputs seem to suggest that there's no appetite for a cold spell to stick around for long before it gets thwarted by mild southwesterlies. The last two tweets I posted here would suggest that the theme going ahead will be mild (although they also suggest rain).

[cheese]

 Mullet maybe a cold March wouldn't be a bad thing though? Look at March 2018, March 2013 and March 2006 - all cold months followed by very warm or hot summers. 

I doubt there's any real link between a cold March and a hot summer, but they do seem to occur in the same year quite a lot.

[raz.org.rain]

 cheese that's been on my mind too. A repeat of March 2018 would at least suggest that a repeat of summer 2018 is possible. I'm still cringing at the current ENSO transition though, although a sudden El Niño to La Niña transition is far from the summer killer that some believe it is. The effects on our summer are negligible at best, plus I'm pretty certain we've had past analogs with sudden El Niño to La Niña transitions that have delivered some hot summers, I'm told that 1995 was one of these? Localised factors are so far favouring a warm to hot summer I'd say. Add on top of that the effects of climate change and I'd say we're still in a good spot for a hot summer. Dry? That may be a different story.

Back to March and it's looking dire for anyone chasing cold. There's no strong signal for anything cold, even the possibility of a SSW seems to have dropped like a stone.

Edited February 9 by raz.org.rain

[raz.org.rain]

I'm getting the impression that outputs are very messy at the moment. We've gone from a suggestion of colder second half to a suggestion of possibly milder with no overall strong signal.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 lassie23 I declared that ages ago

 cheese We had a cold March last year and look what happened to THAT summer!! Never again thanks. NEVER!

[Harveyslugger]

 joggs could be spring like weather.i personally don't mind

[lassie23]

 *Stormforce~beka* spring is over the UK is over 

[cheese]

 *Stormforce~beka* last March wasn’t as cold as 2018 or 2013 though tbf 

[WYorksWeather]

Just imagining what the 'sod's law' kind of next six weeks would look like, as far as most people's weather preferences.

Probably the next two  to three weeks near average temperature wise, so not cold enough to deliver any snow, with cold drizzle. Then into early March, the effect of a major SSW hits, and we get a significantly colder period, but since it's later on and with the general warmth of the Northern Hemisphere this year, just at best one or two snow days, otherwise largely restricted to high ground. Probably similar to the event we've just had.

Following that, temperatures remain below average, but there's no longer a reasonable chance of snow, and so we get day after day of cold drizzle across most of the UK, punctuated by one or two more named storms. Major flooding issues likely again by the end of March. Temperatures are just above average for 1961-1990 due to a lack of frosts, but cool by day with an absolute max of about 16C all month. And of course, another month significantly wetter and duller than average.

I'm hoping that by writing that out, whatever happens can be viewed as at least better than what I've just posted!

[Mullet]

 cheese I love a warm Spring but not too much, as I don't want to waste favorable conditions before the summer. Just can't bear 10 to 15 degrees all the way out to mid May.

I'm difficult to please! But yeah I'd gladly tolerate a cold March in return for a warm June or July.