Model banter and emotions

[Summer8906]

Just hope the GFS 00z doesn't come off.

It's just ridiculously cyclonic all the way to the end of the run on the 10th/11th. Looks even worse than March 2023 with the lows even further south.

I suspect there will be a major national flooding crisis comparable to 2014 if this comes off.

Not all runs are showing this though, the 18z from yesterday being considerably more benign.

[Summer8906]

19 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

A few days later and it's looking like there's strong support for a return to much milder weather after this current spell passes. There's nothing particularly cold in the extended, but nothing fabulously warm and dry either from what I can tell. 

Not good, as yet more mild, unsettled weather is the absolute last thing we need!

At least this spell has produced a drop in temperatures (which will be good for nature) and we're getting a little bit of brightness and sunshine between the deluges. Not looking forward to yet more southwesterlies - will it ever end?

If March is mild, dull and wet then basically Spring 2024 will be spoilt. he flowering will be ridiculously advanced, so we'll be facing a spartan May with all the normal May flowers gone - so we end up with just one proper "true spring" month that we can enjoy (assuming the rain finally stops then) - April.

We absolutely need cold, dry and settled right now. The one thing that seems impossible to achieve.

 

 

Edited February 24 by Summer8906

[raz.org.rain]

 

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain "Interesting" indeed... the UK and Ireland stuck under yet more dull, wet, miserable gloom while just about all of the rest of Europe sees fine sunny conditions! What a horrible, horrible synoptic chart. Reminds me very much of summer 2007 and 2012.

A profoundly depressing set of model runs today after yesterday brought some hope of something drier. How long will this ghastly wet, miserable gloom carry on for? The first half of March 2024 seems even worse than March 2023 on today's GFS runs (00z and 12z) if that were at all possible.

There must now be a real risk of a major flooding crisis if some of today's GFS runs are at all accurate. The follow on from that stalled low is that the ridge out to the west gets swallowed up by yet another trough, threatening yet another miserable week for the first full week of March.  GFS 12z then ends with an easterly affecting Scotland but with yet more lows tracking across southern England. This must surely be an almost unprecedented extended wet period for the south of England. Just hope this isn't the new climate change norm.

I cannot recall such an extremely prolonged extremely wet period as this, affecting four consecutive meteorological seasons: summer, autumn, winter and now spring.

ECM still has the anticyclone to the east influencing us by the middle of the first full week of March so perhaps still some chance of an alternative scenario.

Just hope there is a dry month soon. Really beginning to wonder. Will March 2024 be, incredibly, even wetter than 2023?  Put it this way, I will be getting out of the UK for as long as I can this summer as that seems to be the only way of getting settled weather at the moment...

Edited February 25 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 It is not the new norm, that's for certain. We are just very, very unlucky at the moment.

I wouldn't say the drier option is off the table either - the ensembles haven't really shifted, just toying with the options, so we see one run come out unsettled, another quite dry.

The central option is probably drier, but not totally dry after the first few days of March, and slightly milder than average. Should at least be a better spell of weather than what we've had recently if it comes off. Extreme options look unlikely - not much evidence to support a proper early warm spell, nor a late cold spell (apart from one rogue GFS ensemble member which I posted on the model thread for a bit of laugh!).

In any case, the last two days haven't been too bad here. Very frosty early mornings, but yesterday was sunny, around 8-9C, and still, whereas today has been a little chillier with more breeze, but still no rain. It feels like ages since we've had a full 24 hours or more without any rain, so I'll take it. More please!

 

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather Hope so, the ECM is still suggesting the settled option.

Glad you have got good weather this weekend. Not so great here: frequent heavy showers for much of yesterday but it was much brighter and drier after 3pm. Today started ok in the early morning but has mostly been dull and wet.

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 Usually being further north we get the worst of it. We were at the epicentre of some of the flooding in December - the line seems to have shifted south with the heaviest rain now falling over more central and southern areas of England (plus Wales) rather than northern England and southern/central Scotland.

Hopefully we can get a sort of pattern that delivers something drier for the whole of the UK soon. I'd prefer warm and sunny, but I'd take boring, frankly. Something like a UK high staying parked for 10 days. Daytime maxes a little above average, minima slightly below average with frost and fog.

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather Even dry and cloudy with average temps would do. Of the next 6 months, the first half of March is probably the best time to have dry and cloudy (as opposed to sunny).

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 Yeah was thinking maybe a bit of lingering fog and partly cloudy with sunny spells or something would do the job.

Anyway anything other than relentless wind and rain is fine.

[Weather Boy]

 Summer8906 Good to read a bit of balance. Since when did the GFS determine the synoptic pattern? It's a chocolate teapot beyond c. T192!

[WYorksWeather]

 Weather Boy I agree. I think everyone is just looking at this from a just for fun point of view. I don't take any one model particularly seriously, and we're a long way from being able to say with any certainty where things will go as we head into Spring proper.

[Sherry]

Why on earth anyone actually wants cold weather is passed me! This winter has been great from a mild perspective very few cold weeks, no snow! Good! Looking forward to having Xmas on the beach one day! 
 

apart from the usual stuff post day 10 luckily nothing particularly cold in the outlook (unless on a northern hill) 

[Atleastitwillbemild]

 Summer8906   I "liked" this post only becasue it really speaks the truth about how horrific this situation is, but it was a depressing read. I'm glad someone is actually reacting sensibly to this nightmare. And for those of us with SAD it really is a seemingly never ending nightmare. 

I watch the Met office deep dives on Youtube and its like something out of the twilight zone. The sheer lack of acknowledgment of how unusual the weather since July has been is starting to become bizzare. They just keep referring to this godawful crap as "rather unsettled" and show no human sign of sympathy or regret when announcing "more rain" No human display of comiseration for the country they're delivering this news to, not even a cringe or a grimace. Just stupid cheerful smiles.

I don't know if they're just trying not to panic the general public, determined to keep some British stone faced professionalism or what. But you'd think, at least on the 15 minute "deep dives" there'd be some acknowledgment of the sheer amount of water that has fallen from the sky since July last year and the surely unprecedented lack of high pressure. I've had about 5 or 6 sunny days since July. I've never lived through anyting like it.

But they just keep cheerfully and casually delivering news of yet another low pressure system to add to the 374 that have crossed over us, obliterated the sun and caused most of the country to look like Bangladesh as if its the most normal thing in the world. Its starting to really irritate me. Not least because of the constant downgrading of dry, sunny weather promised at the 7-10 day rang on their absurdly useless app. 

Are any of the presenters, at any point, going to say "This is weird, we're in trouble, this is not normal. Its making us miserable too, sorry to all the farmers, homeowners and anyone sick to the bottom of their stomachs of rain, and we promise not to stand there like grinning idiots when pointing to another low heading towards us" ? 

This irrational and emotionally unstable rant was brought to you by low serotonin, SAD and depression. 

[Frigid]

 Sherry Lol really? That's like saying who wants hot weather in summer.. 

Winter is meant to be cold, not freakishly mild like the last few weeks. I hope 2024/25 delivers, been way too long since we've gotten a classic. Can finally pass this wretched winter aside, and look for drier weather in Spring.

[Atleastitwillbemild]

 Frigid

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but if you thought winter 03/04 was a subtropical nightmare of elevated moisture and unseasonable warmth then boy does climate change have a sweet treat in store for you next winter.

[Atleastitwillbemild]

 Sherry  I don't think anyone is after a winter wonderland at this point we just need it to be dry, and at this time of year that usually coincides with a cold spell. An early spring is not good for nature either. You don't want blossom on trees and sprouting produce getting killed by that inevitable stupid Easter blizzard. I think most of us would chop their arm off for two weeks of frosty high pressure right now.  

[Atleastitwillbemild]

 Rain All Night Its comical isn't it? I know atmospheric pressure doesn't have sentience or agency but its really hard not to imagine our climate as either profoundly stupid or an evil genius cackling with glee as it sets up the PERFECT winter synoptics for easter holidays. 

[Sherry]

 Frigid everything is warming! Any decent snow events in the uk will become more and more rare! The mild weather we have been experiencing is the way forward! Which I’m pleased about, done with dark cold frosty crap! We finally need to become a warm climate all year round! Which I suppose with global warming is slowly happening 

[Atleastitwillbemild]

 Sherry  You do realise that due to our position on the globe, warming temperatures aren't actually going to make our winters any less dark right?  Our winters are dark because of our high lattitude. The "frosty crap" you mentioned hating so much in winter actually makes the winters brighter and sunnier, as the skies are clearer. Guess what will happen to our dark winters when global warming makes them wetter during the winter solstice? Bye, bye sun. You might not have thought this through.

If it was making our country a drier, sunnier place then you certainly wouldn't hear me complaining. But it isn't is it? We're facing a nationwide flooding crisis, none have us have seen the sun for more than a few hours for months, the soil on farms is eroding and washing away making growing produce difficult and then food prices will go up. Whatever few bob we save on heating will soon be offset when our farms can't grow food and our homes are being destroyed.

The future appears to be very, very wet and grey. 

Edited February 26 by Atleastitwillbemild

[LetItSnow!]

Regardless of one's preferences, odds suggest that a break in anomalously high rainfall will probably end soon, whether that means a return to average conditions or very dry, who knows. I'm starting to wonder if the old relied on "a couple wet years then a couple dry ones" cycle is not a thing anymore since the only real dry spell we've had didn't even last a whole year. 

 Atleastitwillbemild  I do seem to agree on a very wet future, though an anxious voice inside me says that we may pay for this very wet 10 year spell with a similar length spell of very dry, arid weather. More warmth equates to more moisture though and unless blocking patterns become more established then expect more rain to be dumped from those same ole lows that have ravaged England since the dawn of time. Lol.

[Atleastitwillbemild]

 LetItSnow!  I don't mind the lows, I just remember a time when they were occasionally interrupted by a few weeks of highs! Even in the winter! High pressure over the UK seems to have become a completely extinct phenomenon. Its extraordinary. If this is the future then I will be among the few climate refuges heading south!

[MP-R]

 Sherry If mild in this country presented itself more like southern Europe ie more settled, sunny and dry… I’m sure more people would enjoy it. Myself included. Unfortunately mild normally means dull and wet here, which has characterised almost the entirety of this winter. 
 

I do agree, however, that now we are moving into spring, it’s time to stop chasing cold and start looking for more seasonal conditions.

[AWD]

Agree @MP-R

For our area, it’s been predominantly mild

for the last god knows how long.  Yet, it’s also been predominantly cloudy and at times, very wet.  Making the mild conditions very dull & devoid of character unless you enjoy getting wet.

Personally speaking, I would like a period of sunny weather now.  Obviously with Spring about to start I would love some early warm, sunny weather but beggars can’t be choosers & I’d be happy to forgo temperature just for some sunshine.

Alas, the latest forecast for the next week or so is more of the same still;

often cloudy, at times wet and not even particularly mild either.  Appreciate other parts of the country are fairing a bit better, particularly over towards the capital, but us in the SW are essentially living in endless cloud currently, with a rare 24 hour reprieve every now & again.

Talk of something better in the 2nd half of March.  I do hope so but we all know how long range modelling & long range forecasts have faired lately.   Trouble is with an ever warming climate, we see more rain productive clouds forming over our waters which results in an increase in flooding etc, as has played out over the last year for many.  Double edged sword and all that!

 

[Rain All Night]

Anyone else got a funny feeling that the upcoming Scandi block is being over-modelled and that the Atlantic trough it will be competing with is being under-modelled? You kinda just know...

[Sky Blues fan]

Cold March is not for me and every chance the models will back away