Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[sebastiaan1973]

The windplume De Bilt. No cold winter weather till the first week of next month.

And this in line with the anomaly chart for the last 10 years. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters tonight, and winter slips further out of reach.  T192-T240:

6 clusters, three essentially westerly, the other three develop a UK high, edging NE

T264+:

Clusters 1 and 2 remain zonal, with Euro heights.  Cluster 3 flirts with the Atlantic ridge but doesn’t really get there, cluster 4 develops a weakish Atlantic ridge but that only has 9 members.  So a downgrade since this morning, again.  

[MattH]

Evening.

I scanned across a post earlier today, which discussed the AAM and how this is now unfavourable looking ahead, also referencing early Dec as being the onset of where the current blocking patterns and propagation of AAM anomalies to the mid-lats started - This is not correct.

I did a detailed post, using three separate examples which got pinned on how the last month or more, in terms of the AAM evolved and influenced the pattern. To use the current (20th Jan) GSDM data to write off the outlook into the first half of February, at least, is a mistake.

The MJO has progressed into phase 5 and there are now increasing -ve OLR anomalies throughout the Maritimes all linked to the expected eastward push of the MJO. Don't forget some of the key important phases, in terms of the MJO and the GSDM are phases 4-5-6. People often hope for phases 7-8 of the MJO.

The current evolution can be seen well on the below...The higher latitude -ve E'ly AAM anomalies have been replaced by a zonal push, won't repeat the reasons why that has happened, but, once again, the current and upcoming +AAM event and rise in GWO cannot be simply dismissed as an influence within the next 14 to 21 days because expectation is for the zonal higher latitude flow to persist, unabated. To say that we are missing a poleward propagation of +AAM anomalies is also incorrect, it is E'ly AAM anomalies that are looked for. This is the complicating area of the GSDM that needs to think about, as +ve AAM regimes through the tropics promote -ve AAM anomalies at higher latitudes and vice versa.

What I have been musing over is whether the more zonal, westerly type at higher latitudes will now remain dominant and acting to keep a lid on the potential for northern blocking, but IMO I don't think it will. We are now only just starting to see the usual GSDM responses to the ongoing MJO progression and the re-development of westerly inertia into the tropics, in the areas of interest. This remains a watching brief, but it is way (way!) to early to say that we won't see any influence through the mid-latitudes into early February onwards. Don't forget we maintain a robust eQBO regime too.

My expectation and prediction is that the current dominant zonal +NAO regime will, essentially, burn itself out within the opening week of February (approx), with a far greater risk of amplification to the pattern, this is perhaps particularly relevant if the sPV declines more towards Russia once again.

In terms of colder synoptics and February is very much a lot to play for, despite how some may be analysing the situation.

Regards, Matt.

 

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 has a Greenland block 12th Feb-19th

[sebastiaan1973]

EC46 update. Please take a look at the latest and the past 3 days. I see an improvement. Phase7 is now reached and with som reasonable amplitude.  

We see a shift to (relative) high (er) pressure to our northwest around mid february.   

[January Snowstorm]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 has a Greenland block 12th Feb-19th

While it's unreliable, better to see it than not! It did a fairly decent job late Dec/early January 

Is the next chase beginning? Probably not but maybe the tarmac is being laid on the road ahead lol  

Edited January 22 by January Snowstorm

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

EC46 update. Please take a look at the latest and the past 3 days. I see an improvement. Phase7 is now reached and with som reasonable amplitude.  

We see a shift to (relative) high (er) pressure to our northwest around mid february.   

That’s good on both counts.  And the strong positive Euro height anomaly disappears around the same time.  

[sebastiaan1973]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That’s good on both counts.  And the strong positive Euro height anomaly disappears around the same time.  

It is time for the next hunt 

Today the MJO leaves the Maritime Continent, so I guess the MJO forecast will become more accurate.

Edited January 22 by sebastiaan1973

[Rob 79812010]

Scavenging for a few days more, then the hunt begins I feel

[Don]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 has a Greenland block 12th Feb-19th

500 hPa chart not looking as good 12th-19th February, with heights remaining over Iberia as well as Greenland.

Edited January 22 by Don

[Uncertainty]

28 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

The windplume De Bilt. No cold winter weather till the first week of next month.

And this in line with the anomaly chart for the last 10 years. 

That’s a sobering last chart Seb.

This is the framework within which we have to operate…

[LetItSnow!]

52 minutes ago, BigBlizzard said:

Have we ever seen such an extensive area of warmth to the south modelled at this time of year? Incredible to see this over the 20 odd years of chart watching! It'll be sods law the warmth will have vanished as we approach late spring when most of us want it but it's hard to imagine an area this size being replaced with cold air. Not a winter's over or CC change post, generally interested in whether the level of warmth and extent of warmth modelled has been seen before?

 

 

Looks like the set up we had in February 1998 but with a little added oomph. Impressive considering this is almost two weeks earlier in the year before that spell.

I wonder if we have to wonder about a very spring-like opening to February. Sun strength is a little weaker but depending on cloud amounts this could be a warm spell. A bit concerning to see heat begin to develop to our south already, hopefully not a sign of another harsh year across Europe. All around the day ten mark so exact details will shift but it's an interesting chart, but for the wrong reasons!

[StretfordEnd1996]

1 minute ago, Don said:

500 hPa chart not looking as good 12th-19th February, with strong heights over Iberia.

That looks a great chart to me Don considering the current shorter term output and current circumstances - loads of potential with that chart and even on face value something like that would be bring in NWly or Nly winds. With some dull looking charts at the moment, the chart you posted really gives me optimism of a change further down the line.

I've definitely seen worse charts than that. If anything it's absolutely what we want to see.

In the slightly shorter term there are a few ensembles in FI in the GEFS that are diving quite low - nothing out of the ordinary but we've lacked this somewhat in the last few days 

 

In regards to the ECM too - it's not as though I'm personally looking at it's output to only determine if we're heading for a severe deep freeze or not, I'm merely just looking for a step in the right direction to which it is. It clearly shows a weakening of Azores heights and a weakening of the Atlantic train. With those two in play it gives reason for optimism- even if the end result is anything from a brief Northerly to something more substantial

 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

That looks a great chart to me Don considering the current shorter term output and current circumstances - loads of potential with that chart and even on face value something like that would be bring in NWly or Nly winds.

If it wasn't for that high pressure over Iberia, I would agree it looks like a great chart.  However, as has been the case recently, high pressure over Iberia has often put a dampener on otherwise strong cold potential!

Edited January 22 by Don

[PsychedelicTony]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

Before addressing the longer range which I will do later, worth looking at tomorrow. I've only been banging on about it for about the last 10 days now and I'm sure you're sick of hearing about it, but this will be my last look at tomorrow's potential for a daily record. Remember, the target to beat is 15.2C.

Here's the raw maxima from UKV:

GFS:

Arpege:

Arome:

ICON:

Nearly all models with the exception of the Arpege are showing raw maxima of 14C, and based on typical under-reading, I would therefore say that the prospect of a daily record break tomorrow is still uncertain even at this late stage. I'll stick my neck out and say that it will happen, but probably only by a very small margin.

Hawarden a good stab if achieved? 

Historically and looking at those charts it seems in with a chance. 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

If it wasn't for that high pressure over Iberia, I would agree it looks like a great chart.  However, as has been the case recently, high pressure over Iberia has often put a dampener on otherwise cold potential!

You could look at it this way 

it’s a seven day mean 

Maybe the Iberian high is strong 12/15th feb and then retrogresses a bit to deliver the following week’s mean which is block over U.K. and north westwards. The ec46 continues to bring a slow retrogressive pattern which delivers at the end of feb. I assume that this mean output hides a few clusters which would be wintry earlier 

[WYorksWeather]

Looking at the longer range, there's an extremely consistent pattern continuing with very mild conditions being favoured until the very end of FI, when things are showing as possibly nearer normal. In any case, increasingly a very mild end to January and start to February being suggested.

You can see this much more clearly visually, using the ECM meteogram for Reading below.

It seems that the move towards more average conditions right at the end of the model runs is primarily due to an increased chance of north-westerly winds. This would at least feel a bit more seasonal, but of course is unlikely to deliver anything wintry away from the usual prone spots. Possibly an increased chance of overnight frosts and fog.

That's about as much optimism as I can give you. In the meantime, the mild train keeps on rolling. At times, near record-breakingly mild, due to all the aforementioned factors around wind direction, SSTs, etc.

[WYorksWeather]

4 minutes ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Hawarden a good stab if achieved? 

Historically and looking at those charts it seems in with a chance. 

Depends on the model. Slight variations in the exact placement of the mildest temperatures. Some favour South Yorkshire or into the Midlands, some favour Wales, and others favour East Anglia.

It will probably become a nowcast situation tomorrow.

[Don]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You could look at it this way 

it’s a seven day mean 

Maybe the Iberian high is strong 12/15th feb and then retrogresses a bit to deliver the following week’s mean which is block over U.K. and north westwards. The ec46 continues to bring a slow retrogressive pattern which delivers at the end of feb. I assume that this mean output hides a few clusters which would be wintry earlier 

I see what you mean, but everything seems to be slowly getting pushed back again with the EC46?  Taking into account a disappointing winter so far and the signals for February cold now seemingly fading, I'm finding it increasingly difficult to be optimistic for the remainder of winter/early spring.

Edited January 22 by Don

[Rain All Night]

An overview of this afternoon's global model runs.

Deterministic runs, Tue 23rd to Mon 29th

The prospect of dry weather for the south looks reasonable from Saturday onwards. Not sure the wind direction is going to go down too well with many of my fellow members here though!

Ensemble means, Tue 30th to Mon 5th

And it looks as though the theme continues. I would rather this than more storms.

[WYorksWeather]

Again they're not worth much, but no change on CFSv2 from the mild pattern until week 4. Weeks 1-3 are so mild that at least in terms of temperature, it will feel quite spring-like for most of central and southern UK.

 

[Daniel*]

GEFS seem more interested in hemispheric reshuffle... maybe there will be further vortex stress in February, although I suppose many would be against that with spring not far. Seasonal models have been pointing for months towards most extensive northern blocking in late winter and spring. It would be very predictable we get the synoptics we crave out of season.

[Met4Cast]

This must be the most boring the outlook has looked all winter, at least we had something to talk about with the storms etc during the first half & indeed this week. 

Going forward though? Nothing but “bleughh” across all modelling & ensemble suites. Perhaps we’ll get a bit of amplification at some point in February but I can’t see it at the moment. 

[Don]

17 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Going forward though? Nothing but “bleughh” across all modelling & ensemble suites. Perhaps we’ll get a bit of amplification at some point in February but I can’t see it at the moment. 

Yep, jam tomorrow comes to mind!

[bluearmy]

At least everyone’s catching up with their sleep!

more of the same on the nwp 

seems a v slow road to the removal of euro heights and the movement of the rump of the upstream vortex across to the Asian side (if that does actually happen)