Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Methuselah]

There's model uncertainty, isn't there always: this week's Deep Dive: 

 

[Gowon]

No comment on the UKMO? That wedge of heights it developed in the mid atlantic has migrated to the ne: 

[nick sussex]

Looking at the GEFS some more interesting ensembles now showing in the ten day timeframe .

I count 7 out of the 30 members .

 

 

[Cambrian]

12z GEFS showing the main action going on over the pole, with an Arctic high currently forming through the Barents / Kara Seas slicing through the PV by day 6.

 

The torpedoing of the vortex is captured nicely in the day 1-8 animation. I sit here in admiration, adding my own sound effects.

 

Of potential importance to us down the line as it frees at least part of the Greenland lobe of the PV to wander eastward towards Scandinavia by day 10, pulling the flow around to north of west and giving the Iberian heights a bit of a nudge west.

The first rudimentary signs perhaps of the pattern returning to one that might accommodate some colder options for the UK and Ireland. 

[Northern Sky]

On the face of it the second half of the GFS 12Z run is (if you like cold in Winter) unutterably vile. Day after day of temps in the mid teens which would surely be one of the warmest starts to February ever?

Let's hope it's way off the mark!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Some very interesting ensembles coming out from the 12z...at last some excitement 

[IDO]

No relaxing of the jet in FI on this run, D8-16:

The Northern Arm remains strong and keeps the UK on the milder side of the pattern. 

[LRD]

Good grief - this is potentially record-breaking stuff

What could we expect from that. 17 to the east of high ground in Scotland?

13C-16C elsewhere?

Remarkable. Utterly remarkable. For southerners, if only it was July

New Year's Eve/NYD 2021/22-esque. I've seen some horrible charts (for winter cold) down the years and this lot are right up there. 

Edited January 23 by LRD

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

This is as depressing as it gets in the middle of winter -

[LRD]

At least the PV leaves Greenland in the last frame of tonight's ECM

[AO-]

@MATTWOLVES 3

True, but it is hard to find clusters from day 12 onwards. I've been through some members at T336 and the GFS comes up with all sorts of options. But more members opt for disrupting the vortex and that seems like a start for me. Hope this is something to look forward to the next days with more members showing good synoptics. There seems some improvement already starting in short term with respect to the bigger pattern. 

[That ECM]

Might be gone tomorrow but at least it’s better viewing.

[Gowon]

More positive finish to the ECM:

And the Asian models are still teasing us:

 

 

[Uncertainty]

Most exciting d10 op chart for a while potential wise

The actual chart is a bit more mundane, but you’ve gotta start somewhere, right?

Monster scandi storm, not unsurprising give the SPV will be there too. 

The ensembles have been flirting with this idea, nothing other than a whimsical idea at present. Let’s see what the clusters say…

[LRD]

If you're one of those people who don't like seeing wintry conditions in, er, winter, the GFS ensembles are good viewing. For the rest of us, however...

[AO-]

@LRD

I haven't seen this happening very often in reality. If it is to be verified it could be something to look forward to. But there is not enough WAA I'm affraid to the West to create a proper block.  Besides, the Iberian high seems comfortable where it is. I hope I'm wrong though and this is the start of the next chase. 

[LRD]

@Uncertainty That's a superb illustration of how pressure anomaly charts can be very misleading. I do use them on EC46 to see if there is a direction of travel but I generally take little notice of them

@AO- Agree - but we have to see a start somewhere I guess

But for those chasing cold, I'd be taking a break from model-watching until this time next week. Can't see much happening before the week of 12th Feb. If anything happens at all. All the 'interest' (I use the word loosely) will be around just how warm it could get next week

Edited January 23 by LRD

[Methuselah]

As much as I love snow, I also like today's gfs 12Z at T+384. And, no, of course it won't verify! 

   

UK winters are much more tolerable, when one 'chases' more than one synopsis? 

Edited January 23 by Methuselah

[WYorksWeather]

As others have already noted, a ludicrously mild GFS ensemble set tonight. The OP is a mild outlier but even taking the mean we have a very March-like set of ensembles temperature-wise. One of the most remarkable things being the lack of almost any cold minima.

Even nearer my location, GFS is suggesting not a single ground frost at all in the entire run if the mean were to verify. Utterly ridiculous.

[Gowon]

@LRD I've a good vibe something is gonna crop up sooner - I'm waiting to see how the UKMO would evolve after 168hr; the only other model that's kinda similar is the JMA .

[LRD]

@Gowon Not ruling anything out for the 2nd week of Feb onwards, of course, but it's looking very bleak for coldies at the moment. A winter that had so much potential could be melting into puddles of disappointment

[damianslaw]

ECM offering a change from the current synoptics, albeit not until day 10. Main difference is the position of the PV draining east to produce a deep scandi trough enabling possibly ridge to build north through UK at least, whether it would result in a pattern change not sure, but a better foundation for a change than current.

GFS looks like a record on pause, heights stuck limpet to our south throughout recent runs.

All eyes should be on polar profile developments and the shape, orientation and depth of the polar vortex in the days ahead. 

[LRD]

Labouring a point but look at the GEM in FI. Incredible that computers are even modelling this. Uppers of over 10C in January. Approaching 15C IMBY. Crazy stuff

Just got to wait and see if we'll experience one of those instances where stupid warmth flips into something much, much colder next month

[LRD]

@Methuselah I do like a wind/rain storm (I know I'm in the minority on that) but we've seen enough of those the last 3 months or so.

Like a N'ly between late March and late September is a waste of a cold pattern, warm/mild and dry synoptics in late autumn through winter to very early spring is a similar waste of a warm pattern!

[Metwatch]

It can always be worse if you're on the lookout for cold. 18.3C with this and 16C Scotland...