Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Derecho]

 danm I think some CET records could be under threat if this warmth persists. Check out my post in the CET thread but the 06z GFS is similar to the 00z EC control, which has a CET of 14.9C up to the 16th.

This is all clearly a fine line because if the low ends up sat over us it will be a very different story but the sinking of the low southwards keeps warm air entrenched.

Also just a side note but EC00z ensemble member 10 is the most extreme I have seen for the UK. It constantly has the warm air to the south feeding in for the entire later stages of the run, elevating maxima to the high 20s widely with minima in the high teens.

After the 16th there are consistently daily CET returns in the low to mid 20s. Won't come off but I had to point it out because it was extraordinary.

[Sherry]

Yes does look warmth will continue although more unsettled but get some sunny spells and temps still low twenties in spots with the risk of thunderstorms quite a good outlook tbh especially if you like warmth and storms 

[Rain All Night]

On 06/05/2024 at 11:39, Rain All Night said:

0z ensemble means, out to Tue 21 May (day 15)

The ECM ensemble has by now established itself as the designated pessimist for the middle third of May.

This GEFS ensemble mean suggests to me that some member runs are offering some rather warm (if not entirely dry) conditions.

0z deterministic runs, on Mon 13 May (day 7)

An interesting selection. ECM really is keen to blow up an Atlantic trough. But UKMO offers an extension of settled and warm conditions for many as the next working week begins.

0z ensemble means, out to Wed 22 May (day 15)

It seems the small trough is destined to fill over or just to the south of the UK next week, but the following weekend remains up for grabs. 

0z deterministic runs, on Tue 14 May (day 7)

It seems the low is going underneath us to the southwest initially, which might buy some more time under the settled weather conditions for those further northeast?

I did find one dissenter...

Edited May 7 by Rain All Night

[Neilsouth]

 Derecho If this warmth persists?!?!? It's only the second day this month it feels warm, and probably only the third day the sun has come out...

Really need a feels like grade in this country for spring

[Derecho]

 Neilsouth Persists beyond Sunday I mean. Yesterday I thought we'd see a return to cooler conditions after that date but now I'm not sure.

I appreciate in the far south the weather hasn't been great this month so far...

[Neilsouth]

 Derecho Ahh that makes more sense, would be nice to have atleast a week of dry warm weather in the models. Something us in south east Kent haven't seen since last year! 

[Scorcher]

 Neilsouth Even though it hasn't been blazing sunshine so far, it has been a 'warm' start to the month relative to average. And that is about to be turned up a notch over the next few days.

[Derecho]

 Neilsouth Yup we've been a bit luckier here in that Friday has been our only poor day of the month so far. Today will be the first in a series of warmer days up until Sunday. After this date is of interest due to increasingly warm air to our south.

Low pressure to our west is currently being favoured to move into the Bay Of Biscay... an unusual path that would extend this coming warmth if the low pressure doesn't get too close. It could end up thundery though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 Derecho i’ll take thundery. Best part of summer’s potential in my book!

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Cheshire Freeze where have you been? Nice to see you back on the threads and a thundery scenario looks very plausable.  MattH is definitely needed on here i feel at the moment to give more detail on the goings on.   

[danm]

1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

If this warmth persists?!?!? It's only the second day this month it feels warm, and probably only the third day the sun has come out...

Really need a feels like grade in this country for spring

We have guaranteed warmth until the end of the weekend, the Q comes next week. 

[northwestsnow]

Exeter have nailed their colours to the unsettled mast !

EC seasonal has updated on copernicus   -

South looks best,as usual.

[ANYWEATHER]

 northwestsnow Exeter, who believes them

[danm]

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 northwestsnow Exeter I think are looking at today's model output, plus backdated output, that's probably why.   

[Derecho]

 northwestsnow Their long range was based on EC output yesterday. The output is swinging a little further towards warmth but I still think it could revert back to unsettled and cooler next week.

[Djdazzle]

 northwestsnow Good news as I have little faith In them!

However, it’s likely that next week will be more unsettled but nothing to suggest a washout on the models.

[Bats32]

 Derecho Yeah, the ECM 00z det was a bit of an outlier showing warmth into next week. I think it's still to be resolved at the moment.

[Josh Rubio]

Warm and thundery sounds good to me. Can’t beat a good storm or two.  

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Their long range was based on EC output yesterday. The output is swinging a little further towards warmth but I still think it could revert back to unsettled and cooler next week.

Not sure there’s much ensemble support remains unchanged really from yesterday but of course further SE even average later in May is quite warm.

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Bats32 reckon we need a more coherent MJO rather than it being in the COD all of the time .   

@Kirkcaldy Weather will probably know a bit more about the MJO and is better at explaining things than i am.  

Also i mentioned about kelvin waves and feel we need another upwelling kelvin wave to get our weather a bit more neutral as it still has niño imprints although we are declining out of el niño.    

@summer blizzard could probably tell us when the next upwelling kelvin wave will be.   

Edited May 7 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Addicks Fan 1981]

This to me would indicate more ridging later on when we go past the trough stage, it would be tentative though:

[Derecho]

 Daniel* Yup still uncertain after the 12th. The EC op this evening meanwhile has us under a slack low at T168. Looks thundery to me. UKMO looks the hottest with a southerly at that time. GFS (right) leans towards EC at the same time.

[Scorcher]

The consensus from the op runs tonight is warm pretty much all the way next week but not as settled from Monday onwards.

I think the chances of an immediate breakdown to much cooler conditions are diminishing now.

The kind of week the ECM is showing next week would really boost the CET as minima would be very high for the time of year.

[damianslaw]

Mmm next week remains very uncertain, not clear how the trough will interplay with the ridge, in these set ups, expect sudden short term developments. In the reliable a fine spell away from the NW, warm and feeling early summery.