Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024

[TewksCells]

I reckon the south coast are the only ones that have reason to stay up (or wake up) to catch something. I’ll keep an eye on it for a little longer. 

[Eagle Eye]

Heading right towards the moderate risk and seems to just about be keeping energy by recycling. Also might be a squall line forming with the rain behind becoming stratiform rain, if so then watch as to how that behaves. The weaker that is, the loss cooling occurs, and the more the frontal cells can keep going. Does pretty much rule out anything else if that is happening. However, it manages to keep going because of this, also means that forcing is slightly better than most forecasts happened to have the forcing as.

[TJS1998Tom]

I still remember that time around May that hit Cornwall a few years ago, cant remember when, but was watching it on the radar and it was at 300 strikes a minute. I think it was one of those storms that didnt even pick up on models and caught a few by surprise. Not sure if anyone else remembers the year it was. Think it was about 2017 

[Eagle Eye]

Thinking about it, I haven't had a daytime storm since come close to this and this is nearing  4 years ago now and I'm slightly annoyed because imagine this but I actually had my camera and I was doing a proper setup. No lightning has been that close to me since that day, well not something I've got on camera anyway and I haven't heard thunder really like that, mostly it's been rolling whereas this comes in quickly then rolls, most big thunder for me has been rising and I'm hoping this will be the year where a strike is just beyond those trees again ( don't think it hit them, probably just a camera quirk) and I capture it on my proper camera that footage I take is taken with now. Would also get the thunder in even better.

 

 

[Zak M]

Just seen a flash of lightning to my east!

[80sWeather]

Yikes thunder and lightning here!

[matty40s]

Just torrential rain here in Northants

[ChannelThunder]

Not a lot to report in the end, then! 

[Eagle Eye]

 ChannelThunder

The storm that formed meant not much, if anything else could form because it took up all the energy and a lot of space. 

[Sprites]

 Eagle Eye Good call with your forecast  

[Eagle Eye]

 Sprites Thank you but I don't think so,I gave it too much in terms of how it would avoid the saturation. The saturation very much meant that it was sporadic strikes all the way through as it always does, unless it's below about 70%. I need to start downgrading risks when the saturation trends up. 

[Rufus Butterfield]

I don’t usually edit a video this quick but I just want to get it out the way before I go back to uni. Lightning died out when it approached but the structure made up for it. Unfortunately I didn’t turn my iso up enough so the shelf is a bit too dark

 

Edited April 4 by Rufus Butterfield

[Robert1981]

There as been more heavy showers around Norwich and Diss area today unable to get pictures because I was driving there had gusty winds too with the showers. 

[Shaunado]

 Rufus Butterfield She's a beauty! Thanks for sharing

[Cain]

No risk tonight then ?

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook️

150+ J/KG of 3CAPE should form on Saturday evening leading or storms developing over the SW and south Wales moving NNE throughout the evening and night. This forms along a lobe of forcing that stays relatively still as the storms move up the band of forcing, helping to sustain it. Some showers may also form in Ireland, dependant on how much forcing can actually form there. There may also be some lightning in the front in the SE, but it looks primed to get stronger over the north sea rather than the SE.

 

Very high deep-layer shearing at 80knots just southeast of initiation which appears to be mostly speed shear rather than directional based shearing which should help with upscaling into a multi-cellular system or clusters. However, weak CAPE should keep lightning down to sporadic especially given weak depth of CAPE.

 

Lifting is fairly strong on most models but doesn't look strong enough to significantly help with developments into proper convection centres and that may mean thst less tower based convection could occur and it becomes  a dying cluster of cells very quickly. A lot is going against these being long-tracked cells with frequent lightning, it's looking like sporadic lightning pretty much all the way through at best.

 

This is on the far western edge of a significsnt Theta-E ejection centred over eastern parts of the north sea but there does appear to be some forcing for a secondary band of moisture along the forcing lobe, potentially leading to risk of flooding given the moisture potential and the risk of clusters of heavy rainfall falling for flooding risks, especially in higher saturated areas, although those have lower lightning risks.

 

Saturation is an issue but the edges of the system and new developments look to initially develop in areas without saturation as it moves, so not fully an issue. Though, quickly those should be brought into the system as it continues onwards, if it does become a full system. Showers may trail to its south with less saturation, risking further strikes down even on the south coast, though the energy is still lacking in depth there, so sporadic lightning is still likely at best.

 

The Ireland risk has quite a lot of energy but seemingly very little trigger, risks some fairly frequent lightning is something can get going but very few models have much. Saturation is quite a lot with this though.

 

The SE risk is very low but the Theta-E is more evident there and in the north sea, along with some forcing to help towers to form, but mainly past the SE. 

 

In the main system the tornadic potential is there but low as the low-level shear is strong and could combine with the low-level forcing and energy. Along with some flooding risk given lots of rain across the UK recently, and the risk for heavy rain with this system. Saturation is a huge issue with the lightning risk hence why we've kept it as a low risk. There's also a wide area as to where the storms could be so we've gone for a wide severe. 

[CoventryWeather]

Thanks, weren't expecting any risks, thought it was a fairly messy area of rainfall in Wales.

I've got to do a set of outdoor photos this evening/night so would prefer no showers or storms! Although distant lightning I wouldn't mind! 

[Eagle Eye]

 CoventryWeather

Expect it mostly to be a mess as it's down trended but could well still see some sporadic lightning but good luck capturing anything. 

[CoventryWeather]

Showing some strikes just west of Bude. Seems like a squall line is developing from Devon to Wales, mainly over the sea atm.

Edited April 6 by CoventryWeather

[Eagle Eye]

 CoventryWeather

Probably moving too NNE rather than NE to be that interesting for where you are unfortunately. 

[CoventryWeather]

 Eagle Eye Just letting people know in Wales - I'm not expecting anything here this far inland 

[Cain]

Just doesn’t seem to be anything to  help that like spark by looks of things then ?

[Eagle Eye]

 Cain

Saturation too high unfortunately, so only sporadic lightning, hence why it was a low risk. 

Edited April 6 by Eagle Eye

[Rush2019]

Had an absolute downpour here Macc which set car alarms off and turned the road into a river.  Produced sferics as it moved east over Leek, Staffordshire .

 

 

[viking_smb]

@Eagle Eye some strikes in the far western approaches, will these die off before hitting us?