Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24

[Midlands Ice Age]

14 hours ago, Aleman said:

I've seen Icelandic sea ice a few times in recent years (to the West/NW). Maybe there is a small shallow there and/or heavy snow has dropped on colder water on that side. It's an unusual connection to Greenland I'm wondering about.

 

With regard to sea ice forming, sea new ice off Newfoundland after recent snow. There is occasionally isolated ice patches recorded in this cold sea area after heavy snow. I think I posted similar last year.

 

Thanks Aleman..

I hadn't forgotten your views, and I do agree with them, but I believe in the Jan Mayen Islands they are talking about the main pack, showing its hand.

I am suggesting that that there is a chance it may visit Iceland this year (though still unlikely)

MIA

[jonboy]

5 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks Aleman..

I hadn't forgotten your views, and I do agree with them, but I believe in the Jan Mayen Islands they are talking about the main pack, showing its hand.

I am suggesting that that there is a chance it may visit Iceland this year (though still unlikely)

MIA

Given the depth of cold modelled in the area for the next few weeks it will be interesting to see how much sea ice we get in that area and the baltic sea. Given that we have talk of the hottest year on record due to man induced climate change (personally I think the effect of hunga tonga is ignored for political reasons) then the amount of sea ice is extraordinary. 

Keep up the great work MIA this is such a thought provoking thread.

[Midlands Ice Age]

*****      SEA ICE IN THE NORTH SEA      ******

Thought it worth a post to back up what  Aleman and I were discussing above.

Believe it or not it looks as if it has just happened in the North Sea,     !!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Was looking at the spread of the sea ice in the Baltic (graph below) whilst I checked the Masie Sea ice map for the Baltic    (screenshot below)

                 

If you zoom in on the screenshot you can see a lot of 'sea ice' off the west coast of Denmark. (Part of the North Sea) 

Now I know it has been cold over there but not yet  cold enough for sea ice to widely form.

They have had a lot of snow however.... I think it must be this which has laid down a layer  of slush on the sea surface and which has now frozen over.  

Also apparent should be a small patch of, I think, natural sea ice off the east coast of  Southern  Norway,, at the end of the newly laid down sea ice along the Baltic coasts of South Sweden.

These situations I have not witnessed before this century. 2010 was the last major freeze in the Baltic.  I do not recall this happened even then.

Happy times...

MIA

Edited January 9 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

*****      SEA ICE IN THE NORTH SEA      ******

Thought it worth a post to back up what  Aleman and I were discussing above.

Believe it or not it looks as if it has just happened in the North Sea,     !!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Was looking at the spread of the sea ice in the Baltic (graph below) whilst I checked the Masie Sea ice map for the Baltic    (screenshot below)

                 

If you zoom in on the screenshot you can see a lot of 'sea ice' off the west coast of Denmark. (Part of the North Sea) 

Now I know it has been cold over there but not yet  cold enough for sea ice to widely form.

They have had a lot of snow however.... I think it must be this which has laid down a layer  of slush on the sea surface and which has now frozen over.  

Also apparent should be a small patch of, I think, natural sea ice off the east coast of  Southern  Norway,, at the end of the newly laid down sea ice along the Baltic coasts of South Sweden.

These situations I have not witnessed before this century. 2010 was the last major freeze in the Baltic.  I do not recall this happened even then.

Happy times...

MIA

what next frost fairs returning

[cheese]

A brief 'warm' up in Scandi before colder temperatures return. It's going to be a bumper year for Baltic Sea ice, that much seems certain.

 

 

Edited January 9 by cheese

[ScottSnow]

Certainly fascinating changes going on.

Regarding the volcanic eruption which has been rumoured on here to be the trigger for this increase in extent, do we know how long it’s impacts may last ?

[Aleman]

13 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

*****      SEA ICE IN THE NORTH SEA      ******

Thought it worth a post to back up what  Aleman and I were discussing above.

Believe it or not it looks as if it has just happened in the North Sea,     !!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Was looking at the spread of the sea ice in the Baltic (graph below) whilst I checked the Masie Sea ice map for the Baltic    (screenshot below)

                 

If you zoom in on the screenshot you can see a lot of 'sea ice' off the west coast of Denmark. (Part of the North Sea) 

Now I know it has been cold over there but not yet  cold enough for sea ice to widely form.

They have had a lot of snow however.... I think it must be this which has laid down a layer  of slush on the sea surface and which has now frozen over.  

Also apparent should be a small patch of, I think, natural sea ice off the east coast of  Southern  Norway,, at the end of the newly laid down sea ice along the Baltic coasts of South Sweden.

These situations I have not witnessed before this century. 2010 was the last major freeze in the Baltic.  I do not recall this happened even then.

Happy times...

MIA

Looks about right. We've seen sea turn slushy down the English East Coast in a cold snap I forget exactly when, so Ice on shallow waters of western Denmark could be expected given how cold and snowy it has been there. DMi picks up the sub-zero sea temperature in places. Other sources shows pockets of frozen sea in the islands of the Danish straight and up near Gothenberg.

 

Edited January 10 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

14 hours ago, ScottSnow said:

Certainly fascinating changes going on.

Regarding the volcanic eruption which has been rumoured on here to be the trigger for this increase in extent, do we know how long it’s impacts may last ?

Thanks for this Scott...

Below you will find some of my posts from just before Xmas on the latest at that point. The second is the more interesting.

All I can say is that the trend of increasing sea ice both in the Arctic and Antarctic has if anything INCREASED over the last couple of weeks - maybe just easing off very recently although I'll do today's update a little later on..

I put  together several posts (early Oct - Nov timescale on here) with more details of what may happen, where it was suggested that 2 years would be about correct for any impacts. No one knows as it is the first volcanic eruption of this type we have witnessed in recent history (going back 200 years or more).

These impacts were expected to be positive for the first 12 - 18 months  (approx 0.1C increase worldwide) and caused by H2O in  the troposphere,  but then as it was washed away and dissipated  up into the strat it would be expected to reverse that trend, and  it is currently being investigated by scientists worldwide, but is being ignored by the current news of the record warming in 2023...

I must admit that there is no other viable explanation for this sudden increase in worldwide ice... Certainly not repeated by the News channels.

I also am at a loss to explain why it is happening.

I have picked up my 2 recent posts as discussed above and shown below , but the posts has become too large to include the original posts (2 on Nov 22nd, and particularly the posts on Nov 24th) , so I invite everyone interested to go back and read into the Oct to Nov timescale (if still interested).

It certainly is a rare phenomena (-um ?) these days, and will give some people a real headache..

Current charts are still showing the same trends and are even more difficult to explain away.

MIA

On 24/12/2023 at 11:58, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks for the above Dave (Claret047), and may I wish a happy Xmas and a healthy and brilliant new year to you, and to one and all.

As it so happens I have been watching the worlds (not just NH) sea ice changes quite closely over the last 2 -3 weeks (over the long week end break)., and decided to do something about it as a report, which I will report separately below so as to not upset the normal flow on here.

So a quick update on the NH....

Snow has continued to be fairly sparse over the greater extent of the NH. The only places are China, Alaska and the Yucatan Peninsula, and Eastern Siberia to have excess snow at this date.    However we live in hope!!.

Sea ice has continued to expand rapidly in the last 2 weeks.   (thanks to the ASIF and Masie see below) -

        

 

ASIF (Jaxa) gone from 3rd (last week) to 13th lowest today, and looks a though it could easily go to 17th highest shortly (out of 17, although this include one year in the early 2000'nds ).

The change is as I believe, (as I suggested in my previous notes), to do with a quite quick refreeze in the Central Basin this year, followed by a consequent longer than normal lasting stasis, before the outer sea areas start to refreeze. This change now appears to be gaining momentum as ice completes (its admittedly late) arrival in Hudson Bay, but is steaming ahead in all the eastern oceans of Bering, the SOO , and now the Yellow Sea, (and also in Greenland).

However I have also noted widespread reports (particularly locally!!) of the very unusual appearance of many nacreous clouds in the northern hemisphere. Some lovely photos below from the MIdland thread (with thanks). They  are not normally common unless the air is very dry and exceptionally cold and do indicate that much larger than normal levels of water vapor ( and other rarer gasses??) are present in larger amounts  in the stratosphere.

The  reason which appears to  spring out to me is the effect of the Hunga Tonga Volcano water eruptions into the upper levels of our earth, maybe  at a time of increased solar irradiation.

For a more detailed discussion of further interesting current observations see my next note below...   

MIA 

      

 

 

On 24/12/2023 at 13:10, Midlands Ice Age said:

Following on from my immediate post above and this discussion we had in mid November on here (see above for the start), I thought that a worldwide sea ice extent discussion/report  could be interesting (and unexpected for most). 

 (Thanks to the ASIF) I present the current worldwide charts and positions)  -

       

A truly rapidly changing and unexpected set of charts.

 

Why might this be??

One reason is the  rapid onset of the refreeze in the Northern Hemisphere as detailed in my previous post  above, but it cannot explain everything. Examination of the SH has now suddenly also started to gain an anomalous and large  amount of ice for the time of year. 

      

So it looks as if we could well be seeing a sudden increase of ice extent across the globe.

When I wrote the November post (above), I commented that the Antarctic appeared to be in 'recovery' mode , well this has continued and if anything the trend has increased following the very low figures for 2022/23 S.H. Season.  Extent has now reached 7th lowest  (was 2nd 5 weeks ago, and lowest for most this year) .

I have looked down at the detail level for the Antarctic oceans and they show  that the Weddell Sea has just about stopped melting, and most of the  others are slowing down at the same time as the change to a slower rate of warming is occurring over the continent. The Weddell Sea is the largest ocean around Antarctica and it has suddenly appeared as the 20th lowest for area after being lowest for many months -

        

What is going on down there?

Well  the only thing that can stand out is the Hunga Tonga Volcano. If you remember it was suggested that its effects might well take up to 2 years to work through the atmosphere.  -  , Well it looks like it took 18 - 20 months.

The fact that we are seeing huge (for us) amounts of nacreous cloud in the NH could well indicate that the H2O has now dispersed into the northern hemisphere as well,  and that since the sea ice is recovering so quickly that its warming effects are now eroding away.

Can anything else be suggested?

It, to my way of thinking could not be CC direct impact as a large change (such as this in this direction) has not been postulated. It does however support aspects of the CC theory in that H2O in the stratosphere could be seen as vastly warming. although of a very temporary nature..

My thoughts are that it could also have long term implications for the development of life on earth. Maybe it was (going back 2 -3 billion years ago) a reason for the earth suddenly warming and cooling. During most of this time the globe was  covered in oceans. The major continents (Pangea, etc) were fairly transient (as well as fairly small in total earth terms) and so any major long-term effects of tectonic volcanos (producing Co2 from underground seams of plants, etc ) (assuming  there were any about then) would be vastly reduced at that time, in comparison to the huge amounts of time that earth was under oceans.

So , could my 'suggestions'/ideas  be correct?

Only time can tell...

MIA

 

Edited January 10 by Midlands Ice Age

[summer blizzard]

On 09/01/2024 at 14:28, jonboy said:

Given the depth of cold modelled in the area for the next few weeks it will be interesting to see how much sea ice we get in that area and the baltic sea. Given that we have talk of the hottest year on record due to man induced climate change (personally I think the effect of hunga tonga is ignored for political reasons) then the amount of sea ice is extraordinary. 

Keep up the great work MIA this is such a thought provoking thread.

The eruption theoretically produced more water vapour which can fall as snow in winter. One of the ice age cycles is basically the northern hemisphere getting more solar radiation, becoming warmer and generated more snow. 

On 09/01/2024 at 23:50, ScottSnow said:

Certainly fascinating changes going on.

Regarding the volcanic eruption which has been rumoured on here to be the trigger for this increase in extent, do we know how long it’s impacts may last ?

Theoretically the impacts can last a few years but it's one of those things you need to measure each to establish the decay rate. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

@summer blizzard   ...  Thanks SB for your reply above to the question/discussion.   As I previously mentioned in here .... the expectation based upon theory was warming for the first 12 -18 months as the extra water vapor  'rained' out of the troposphere, with the H2O in the stratosphere (thought to be 25% of the normal amount up there) will take quite a bit longer. 

As regards this thread  -

I am not certain of impacts upon the world sea ice has been discussed/investigated  so far,  in any released paper, but one would expect a drop as the temp rises,  followed by an increase as the temp falls.  This assumes that the temperature is the major control knob of the sea ice.

However it is possible, that clouds and stratospheric  level water vapor. ozone impacts, impurities, etc, could have some/ more impact and perhaps cause changes to the albedo of the Arctic, The truth is not known as yet, but over the next couple of years it will be ubderstood if not resolved,  i am sure,....  It will also give us some sort of clue as to whether the global atmospheric models are correct.

Anyway we must measure events in the Arctic (and Antarctic) in order to verify -  which gives me a nice lead in,   

...........................so here goes with my latest update...

Snow extents have (as suggested) been increasing over the last 4 days and now are not far from normals.

       

Rutgers  rapidly catching up -

  

 

As for ice extents, well they have finally reduced  the very rapid increases in the outer sea areas.

I suppose that the rate could not go indefinitely at the rates of 10 - 20 percent increase each month.

Masie has reached 14.0M Km2  (rounded) on Tuesday at an all time record by about a week (last 17 years) with increases of (+53K), (+17k), followed since by losses of (-13K) and today (-2K), over the last few days.

 

It is still first in its highest charts going back to 2006.

The overall increase is more clearly seen in the Jaxa charts -  (thanks to the ASIF) 

      where  the increase to the '2000' line is shown. (leaving the 2010 trailing well below).

The 2000's  has not happened since the late 2000's and shows the impact of the sea ice refreeze in the outer areas.  

As it so happens, the same effect seems to be occurring in the southern hemisphere at the same time (although from a lower base).

I believe that the next few days will see increases in both snow (in Europe and the USA) , and ice in most outer areas including Bering and Barents this time, as well as the other outer areas.

Certainly much to keep the interest going.

MIA

Edited January 12 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

@summer blizzard   ...  Thanks SB for your reply above to the question/discussion.   As I previously mentioned in here .... the expectation based upon theory was warming for the first 12 -18 months as the extra water vapor  'rained' out of the troposphere, with the H2O in the stratosphere (thought to be 25% of the normal amount up there) will take quite a bit longer. 

As regards this thread  -

I am not certain of impacts upon the world sea ice has been discussed/investigated  so far,  in any released paper, but one would expect a drop as the temp rises,  followed by an increase as the temp falls.  This assumes that the temperature is the major control knob of the sea ice.

However it is possible, that clouds and stratospheric  level water vapor. ozone impacts, impurities, etc, could have some/ more impact and perhaps cause changes to the albedo of the Arctic, The truth is not known as yet, but over the next couple of years it will be ubderstood if not resolved,  i am sure,....  It will also give us some sort of clue as to whether the global atmospheric models are correct.

Anyway we must measure events in the Arctic (and Antarctic) in order to verify -  which gives me a nice lead in,   

...........................so here goes with my latest update...

Snow extents have (as suggested) been increasing over the last 4 days and now are not far from normals.

       

Rutgers  rapidly catching up -

  

 

As for ice extents, well they have finally reduced  the very rapid increases in the outer sea areas.

I suppose that the rate could not go indefinitely at the rates of 10 - 20 percent increase each month.

Masie has reached 14.0M Km2  (rounded) on Tuesday at an all time record by about a week (last 17 years) with increases of (+53K), (+17k), followed since by losses of (-13K) and today (-2K), over the last few days.

 

It is still first in its highest charts going back to 2006.

The overall increase is more clearly seen in the Jaxa charts -  (thanks to the ASIF) 

      where  the increase to the '2000' line is shown. (leaving the 2010 trailing well below).

The 2000's  has not happened since the late 2000's and shows the impact of the sea ice refreeze in the outer areas.  

As it so happens, the same effect seems to be occurring in the southern hemisphere at the same time (although from a lower base).

I believe that the next few days will see increases in both snow (in Europe and the USA) , and ice in most outer areas including Bering and Barents this time, as well as the other outer areas.

Certainly much to keep the interest going.

MIA

Cracking report as ever MIA 

 

thanks,

it’s a shame all the heavy snow into the North Sea next week couldn’t help it freeze over

personally still the amount of Ice relatively near to our shores will impact us 

[WYorksWeather]

Probably worth cross-posting from the model thread - charts from ECM on sea surface temperatures. Today's situation for the North Atlantic here:

Projection at day 15:

[Midlands Ice Age]

Yet another large increase for the Masie extent with a 145K Km2 increase to 14,053K KM2.

-   with a normal average of about 45K Km2  for this time of year.

Also unusually most of the running was taken up by Barents (+58K) , Greenland (+43K) and Chukchi (+10K). within the basin, The SOO (+28K), and Bering (+4K) also (as suggested)  now move forward/upward again.

 

  

Also of interest is the freeze up in the Southern Baltic (see 1 below)  , the ice has now reached Jan Mayen Isle (2nd photo - which shows ice attached to the island (zoom)), and  Bear Isle (between Svalbard  and the Norwegian coast (3rd photo).

Bear Isle was only encircled at the  end of last year's season, but was iced about this same time in 2021.  Before that we had to go back 5 years - which is when there was concerns for them.

 

        

 and now Bear Isle   

Wow things get better and better.

MIA

Edited January 13 by Midlands Ice Age

[johncam]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yet another large increase for the Masie extent with a 145K Km2 increase to 14,053K KM2.

-   with a normal average of about 45K Km2  for this time of year.

Also unusually most of the running was taken up by Barents (+58K) , Greenland (+43K) and Chukchi (+10K). within the basin, The SOO (+28K), and Bering (+4K) also (as suggested)  now move forward/upward again.

 

  

Also of interest is the freeze up in the Southern Baltic (see 1 below)  , the ice has now reached Jan Mayen Isle (2nd photo - which shows ice attached to the island (zoom)), and  Bear Isle (between Svalbard  and the Norwegian coast (3rd photo).

Bear Isle was only encircled at the  end of last year's season, but was iced about this same time in 2021.  Before that we had to go back 5 years - which is when there was concerns for them.

 

        

 and now Bear Isle   

Wow things get better and better.

MIA

As you said MIA been a long time since the ice has reached Jan Mayen

[cheese]

Very cold conditions have swept over Scandinavia and the Baltic states again today with maximum temperatures of -11C in Tallinn, -12C in Stockholm and -15C in Helsinki. Expect further ice increases in the Baltic. 

[nobble]

15 hours ago, cheese said:

Very cold conditions have swept over Scandinavia and the Baltic states again today with maximum temperatures of -11C in Tallinn, -12C in Stockholm and -15C in Helsinki. Expect further ice increases in the Baltic. 

Hopefully they can hang onto the cold

 

helps us out should we be lucky and get a north easterly 

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 Days since my last review...

Snow has made a rapid increase with both Europe and North America covering quickly.

          

Having this effect upon Rutgers  anomalies for today.

. Suddenly we are above average.

 

Ice on the other hand has had more of a delay, with a total of 14,054K Km2 after changes of  -104K, -_9K, +53K and today +54K. Although  no increase for 6 days it is still top for the last 16 years at least, with increases in the SOO and Barents leading the way recently.

They both look to put on further increases in the next 2 or 3 days.

     

Finally we have an update from the DMI temperature above 80 degrees.

This is pretty much as expected with a rise in the new year as the cold was pushed out of the Arctic into the USA and Europe. 

 Followed in the last 2-3 days by dropping temperatures as the vortex starts to reform. 

As we are forecast to warm up in Europe in the next few days, it will be an interesting watch for the temperatures and higher pressure of the polar regions, that many believe will happen.

MIA  

 

 

[Aleman]

[Kaisla]

The second but last colder day here in Finland. The Gulf of Bothnia is still open and it is likely to stay open for rest of January. Temperatures are expected to be above seasonal mean values at least a week, possibly two. Ice cover in the Baltic hardly grows in the next two weeks. It remains to be seen if this warming is a bigger change in weather patterns or just an interlude.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Nearly a week since my last update,...

Snow increased rapidly into Europe, and just as quickly disappeared again.

Any new snow in the USA has remained up until now  though.

  

Sea ice extent has had a 'rocky' ride, with a couple of small in the teens drops followed by a +64K KM2 yesterday and a century break (+113K) today giving  a total of 14,333K KM2.. 

  Still out in front except for a single year 2007 I think in the last 17 years, which was 14K higher.

Todays gains were widespread across the ice sheet with the SOO and Baring leading the way, closely followed by the Baffin Ocean as the ice extends into the Labrador Straits. and down the Newfoundland coast really for the first time..

Barents continues its strong attack on the Bear Isle, but the main pack ice has withdrawn somewhat from the Jan Mayen Isles again just leaving some surface ice which is attached to the island.

Oh yes and expected by our Northern correspondents today saw the first real fall in the Baltic as the warmer air reached the southern-most area.  (-15K).

The last week has seen the surface temp DMI above 80 degrees North continue to fall slowly past -25C towards -30C.

         

MIA

Edited January 23 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Whats going on in the Arctic??

Just over a week since my last update - so decided it was time to update.

The snow and ice have had a tough time over  the Arctic. 

Snow has retreated back in both Europe and North America.

 

and the snow fields are again below average.

Ice extent after a nice rise last week, has been hit very hard by the series of lows moving up towards the Barents Sea.

 

 The total extent dropping to middle of table during this time.   

The latest Masie extent is at 14,373K Km2 after daily gains and losses of (+70K), (-52K), (-67K), (-1K), (+132K) and (-23K), over the last week. At this time of year we normally see gains of an average of about (+30K)  - so quite a bit below average growth.  

Why is this?   Despite still average gains in both the Pacific coasts (SOO, and Bering), and average gains along  the Labrador coastline, we have seen a large reduction in Barents.

The loss here accounts for around 350K KM2 compared to normal.

  

A series of low pressure have moved up into the Barents Sea from the North Atlantic, and this has pushed this less cold air into the southern Arctic ocean.

The DMI shows the impact/effect brilliantly...

 

Will this continue??

The next few days may see little change as the low near Svalbard  begins to fill (Including the remnants of Low Ingunn. -  which swept across Norway this week) and has taken residence to the south of Svalbard, but the further outlook sees a return to high pressure as the strat vortex is further 'warmed out'. 

         

If this happens expect a rapid refreeze in Barents and a continuation of the higher extent trends.

So a somewhat disappointing week for the Arctic to end a superb rest of  January.

MIA

 

Edited February 3 by Midlands Ice Age

[Kaisla]

South-westerly winds calmed down and temperatures should be well below 0 C at least in Gulf of Bothnia and Bay of Bothnia. The latter is partly open due to SW -winds of recent days, but by next weekend it should be covered again.

It is also possible that Gulf of Bothnia will gain lot of new ice in coming days.

Weather charts are looking interesting for Barents Sea also. A possible high could bring very cold air west of Novaja Zemlja and maybe winds will be quite weak. Circumstances for refreeze looks quite promising.

[johncam]

Barents lost a lot of sea ice recently,  seems to be hit hardest in recent years compared  to 80"s and 90's , doubt we will see it at they levels again. 

[Aleman]

Lower snow looks to be mostly down to North American swings. Take that out and the rest is, and has been, pretty average.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 johncam 

Haven't discovered how to show your post yet,,,  but replying to your comment, about the Barents sea ice extent.

I decided to check back at the levels of sea ice, and  in Barents with Masie (back  to 2006 only) it is one of the higher extents for the date Jan 25th (before the weather related drop this year).

But since that didn't really address your yearly point I down loaded all the NASA data from the NSIDC.

It was a very interesting view....

Unfortunately it is not in a format that I can format and display (graphically) but I extracted the following random chosen data for certain years and have given it below -

1979 - 1126000K KM2  (first year and just about largest), going back further is possible in other datasets and old satellite photographs, and also WW2  convoys,  fishing reports, etc  and they  show 1979 at just about the maximum sea ice for  most previous years (50 years back say)). 

1980 - 994,000K 

1983 - 758,000K 

1984 - 690,000K

1987 - 755,000K

1995 - 675,000K 

2001 - 594,000K

2003 - 965,000K

2005 - 296,000k

2011 - 628,000K

2018 - 282,000K

2024 - 692,000K

So whilst there is a downward trend we have seen much less ice at times over the years and some (especially early on) of increased ice levels.  (You'll just have trust me that I selected /chose things randomly)

I must admit that I was quite surprised by this outcome as I had been led to believe that it was on a very rapid downward trend in Barents. I now suspect that Barents has always been at the mercy of the N Atlantic winds rather than  directly by Arctic warmer air.!!!

Come to think of it -  I can remember depressions going into the Arctic fairly regularly in the 60-70's and they must have carried warm air with them. I also can remember bursts of warmer air over the UK associated with the 'fohn' effect . They must have ended up somewhere in the arctic. 

 I think that the latest acknowledgements of the stratospheric vortex has possibly led us to see (and more importantly measure)  more of this perceived new warmth going up into the Arctic. I now suspect/think that  it has always happened.

I go back to the earliest of the DMI temperature dataset (1958)   (recently produced from the ECM data archive for the period), and you can see the variability in temperatures just as you can today -

However a look at the 1962/3 winter DMI chart is quite scary !!

 and you will understand why we had the winter that followed.

My conclusion - this year is not a year to be concerned about just yet. Though we will see whether or not  it picks up rapidly from its recent depression led fall. 

MIA