Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Cheese Rice]

Its a percentage probability. 

I would say there's a 40-50% chance if it working out better than expected as its so finely balanced. 

I wouldn't be surprised if many places see 5cm of snow tomorrow inland but I also wouldn't be surprised if it snows/sleets all day but doesn't settle.

No one can say for certainty in this scenario. 

[Scott Ingham]

 Cheese Rice My own opinion is we will literally JUST be on the right side of cold due to models always taking temperatures and 1-3 degrees higher than normal (this being a bias in forecasting bloated dew points) taking that in to account in a finely balanced situation is where my thinking comes from. But come 10am tomorrow observations of the cold and DP’s will be the over riding factor. The fact the met are on board for a moderate covering is another plus and another example of experienced forecasters adding human input in and not taking the models completely at face value. 

Lets keep our fingers crossed we at least get to see a covering and after that there’s plenty of winter left with the SSW about to make the end of February and start of march interesting for a final hurrah in what’s been a close but no cigar winter and bad luck considering so much has been in our favour in regards to many climate drivers 

[matty40s]

 SouthYorks Thanks, hopefully all melted by the end of the evening !

[Scott Ingham]

 Mark Bayley you can minus 1-2 off of the models usually pal from experience putting many areas just the right side of marginal. If you have a weather station it will be all about observations at 10 am I’d say to see how close or not some of the models are

[The PIT]

Arriving slightly later and to me the governing factor will be the intensity of the front. If it less than suggested and GFS does tend to over do rainfall then it will be a a mixture of cold rain, sleet away from the Pennines. I'm still expecting a rain to snow event here fingers crossed.

[Mark Bayley]

 Scott Ingham it is a fair point, and 1c will make all the difference. To illustrate your point, the current temperature is about 0.7c colder thanthe high res suggests (dew point the same though). I'll reserve judgment until the early afternoon!

In regards spring, we all know blocking in the right place will appear on March the 1st, with the azores heights nowhere to be seen  

Though I'm sure few us will turn down a repeat of last March's snow event (for those that got snow..)

 

[winterof79]

 Scott Ingham

All down to intensity as well 

Edited February 7 by winterof79

[Aiden2012]

One thing I have to say is the gfs is usually correct for snow in my area, hope I’m not proved wrong

[Scott Ingham]

 winterof79 yeh 1000% in situations like this Evap cooling is so important!

[winterof79]

 Scott Ingham Also down to how much cold air we can hold onto for the second pulse Thursday night

[Scott Ingham]

 Mark Bayley Yeah! I’m 1 degrees colder than forecast and 0.8 degrees colder dew points. It always seems to be like this every day unless my weather model is rubbish haha!

Oh and I definitely wouldn’t turn down March 18! That was a nice spell here in Rotherham!

 winterof79 Personally I think we have no chance of avoiding the melt Thursday night but it we can stretch out an extra 3-5 hours it will definitely make a difference to the totals I guess!

Edited February 7 by Scott Ingham

[winterof79]

Temps and dew 

Edited February 7 by winterof79

[joggs]

I'm at a very modest altitude but think we could manage a few cm been on the east side of the Pennines.

I'm hope the easterly wind will pep up precip against the hills.

Meanwhile on the mod thread there's some back slapping front the usual suspect now the models are sort of setting a easterly(not cold) up.

You couldn't make it up lolol.

Paul Hudson just said double figures at the weekend. Lol

Edited February 7 by joggs

[Harsh Climate]

 Aiden2012

My advice is to go out and enjoy it while it lasts, before ya know it the dreaded 'drip' will have set in, then it is game over for any excitement, unless your easily pleased!

For Leeds are I think light sleet/snow 9:30am, heavy from about 11:30am, couple cm above 50m by 2:30pm, by 3pm the first signs of the dreaded drip, snow sliding off your parked car windows and windscreen... Oooo is it just the weight of the snow??? No just the dreaded thaw kicking into place.

Like I said, my only interest from this is can it be heavy/intense enough to get me snowed off work before I finish at 2pm?? Could have done with it setting in before 8am so very unlikely now. 

You guys above 200m, You should see heavier snow perhaps 7/8cm and the thaw come in a bit later. Perhaps 6pm. Still nothing to right home about.

Think what could have been 2 days ago. Heavy snow Thursday, more heavy snow Friday as it pushes back south with precipitation coming in from the North Sea from the wrap around, then colder.. As usual we have drawn the short straw!

[RebsAbbo]

Just driven home over the top of the Wolds….clear skies, 0c and ground frost laying already. Will it stay cold for the rain band to bump into? We’re not expecting to see anything falling until mid morning so a lot could change by then…. I’ll get the snow boots ready just in case

[Polar Low]

Could not be closer to the borderline, here in Newark! I expect snowfall fairly consistently throughout the day, but likely wet with accumulations unlikely. However, Mansfield for example, 20 miles away, will far exceed 5cm. Nevertheless, will be enjoyable to watch heavy falls albeit not settling. I'll take it.

[Wold Topper]

 RebsAbbo i wouldnt rush to dust off the snow boots, our neck of the woods will prob miss out, its all too marginal and we are too close to the coast imo for anything significant, hope i am proved wrong but this has 'sleety crap' (if anything) written all over it!

Edited February 7 by Wold Topper

[Sunny_AS]

Met office still bullish for heavy snow here for a good few hours today and a sleety mix overnight 

[bazookabob]

Yes the app has upgraded for here too, now showing mostly heavy snow during daylight hours. All snow showing for work in Birkenshaw. Got dentist in Garforth at 6pm so will be a doubly stressful commute tonight  

[The PIT]

Everthing about where GFS predicted rainfall not as heavy as I would like. So still a rain to snow event I think for us.

[cheese]

All rain and sleet in the Midlands it seems 

[Love Snow]

 cheese just noticed that been out and it’s got a snowy feeling about it in the air my hope for today  

[LeeSnowFan]

still looking good for us

[Harsh Climate]

Slightly more optimistic this morning.

1. The precipitation looks like coming in earlier than expected.

2.The precipitation looks much more heavier widespread than expected.

[parhelion]

 cheese  Good for them, but it has no bearing on us today.

We'll see what the day brings... all about the nowcast today   Good luck everyone.