Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[MattStoke]

GFS and GEM too far north but UKMO is much further south.

Edited February 4 by MattStoke

[MattStoke]

Snow restricted to the north/north west of the region on the UKMO. Tend to find its snow charts are particularly poor, though.

[Dancerwithwings]

 MattStoke

But hopes maybe looking better though as the low pulls away, pulling in a rash of showers over the weekend…..

[MattStoke]

Snowy ECM.

Edited February 4 by MattStoke

[Dancerwithwings]

 MattStoke
The Met Office have more confidence in what’s happening mid month, than this week apparently….its all about the Jet steam, 1 to 200miles North or South will make all the difference…..you can see this issue between all the models ( they are all over the shop ) I believe by Tuesday or even Wednesday morning confirmed confidence will be restored….hopefully fingers crossed a positive one for us all

[Dancerwithwings]

I mentioned earlier regarding the MO uncertainties

Will it be a little bit North or South, thats the Q

The 18z GFS output is showing potential for snowfall as early as this forthcoming Wednesday….My point is that with the cold air just North of our region, anything is possible

 

EDIT..

This evenings latest BBC forecast….mentioning the cold air and the snow potential

Edited February 4 by Dancerwithwings

[Dancerwithwings]

The latest ARPEGE

[Don]

 Dancerwithwings Not bad 

[MattStoke]

I’d grab the Arpege 18z with both hands.

 

GFS gives a dumping, too, but quickly turns to rain.

Edited February 5 by MattStoke

[Dancerwithwings]

Just having a pick at the cherry tree

[MattStoke]

Models look to be converging on a snow event for central areas, so Midlands the sweet spot. Although, still some uncertainty as the GEM is too far north and the GFS has snow turning to rain. UKMO, ECM and Arpege all give widespread snow, with around 15cm in the most favoured spots.

[CoventryWeather]

 MattStoke good modelling this morning for us, but I'm still remaining cautious. 

Good support on the Arpege ensembles for the midlands. Let's hope this gets verified - certainly been a while since a decent event here. 

Link: 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose de manière régulière les différents scénarios du modèle français ARPEGE 0.1° (10km) de Météo-France sur...

 

Edited February 5 by CoventryWeather

[MattStoke]

 CoventryWeather GEM is really the only one to deliver nothing. By the law of sod, it’ll probably end up right. That or the GFS snow to rain.

[AltonMatthew]

Deffo looking like a non event this week. Snow to Rain at best. 

[MattStoke]

Softly softly, catchee monkey.

[AltonMatthew]

 MattStoke Same forecast on the apps for my location too... holding out hope but I just dont know yet!

 

Edited February 5 by AltonMatthew

[MattStoke]

ICON is absolutely rubbish. Rain away from the highest parts of the Peak District.

[MattStoke]

We have a warning.

[andy_leics22]

And just a day later, the snow chance has pretty much gone for most of the Midlands The models look terrible now for the short to mid term. I can't see snow for anyone below 300m this week. Peak district may do well but lower levels, forget about it.

[andy_leics22]

 MattStoke I hope that is the case, but i'm not buying it.

 

This seems more likely. Northern areas are going to get a dumping.

[MattStoke]

GFS is the model I trust least in these situations, and not just because I hope it's wrong 

[AltonMatthew]

 andy_leics22 I suppose it will be a watch and wait scenario. METO are getting slightly different outcomes to the GFS and we all know how inaccurate the GFS precip model can be. 

I do agree though that despite holding onto the possibility of something, its more likely not going to deliver this time around (Again). But having said that our patch does tend to get surprises. 

One thing I cant be doing with is snow to rain events. You get a lovely snowfall then bam, rain... slush and just misery haha 

[Metwatch]

UKV / UKMO going for something like this as of right now, but according to the displayed temps, wouldn't be cold enough for anything to stick if the low did a more southerly track which the UKV currently does.

A lot of models are further north, so it's a real mess, but certainly nothing for me to get excited over.

 

GEFS ensemble members and mogreps don't look noteworthy either

Edited February 5 by Metwatch

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, if it's going to be a snowless winter, we might as well do it in style!

Seems like it's going out of its way to not snow in this particular area.

[Fozfoster]

 cyclonic happiness Yep, don’t believe the models anymore if it’s showing 10 days out dreamland five days out still Dreamland three days out 50-50 lol