Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[MattStoke]

 Metwatch Trending colder here but yes, very marginal.

[Metwatch]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Trending colder here but yes, very marginal.

Elevation would play a big part IF it's further south as is the case with marginal setups, the Cotswolds or Clent / Lickey hills south west of brum both reaching 300m would get a better chance than here at ~100m.

[CoventryWeather]

Exceptionally messy output though, personally would expect the UKMO to be right in this pattern than the likes of GFS and the ICON. 

Models do seem quite positive on snow settling pretty much anywhere but can't really take that seriously. Think it's a case of watching the short range now, Arome currently looks like it is following the UKV but not quite at the range yet..

[MattStoke]

Sleet risk must be gone on the UKV, then.

 

Edited February 5 by MattStoke

[GokouD]

Met office app vs BBC app for Thursday morning. I know which one I'm rooting for!

 

[Snowshine]

Snow warning for the whole of the Midlands, but let's be real, it'll just be cold rain for the vast majority. I wouldn't be surprised if the warning area is significantly reduced by tomorrow.

Edited February 5 by Snowshine

[CoventryWeather]

 MattStoke Same here, heavy snow until evening when it is rain and sleet. 

Upgrade? 

[nobble]

 MattStoke I concur

[CoventryWeather]

Adding to my previous post, latest UKV pushes tomorrows rain in slightly earlier. 

Think that's then why we see more snow on Thursday. Positive (I think). 

[chris pawsey]

 CoventryWeather Where as i'm about 3 miles south of Coventry and i have sleet all day! I'm hoping for a further shift south of the cold air for Thursday

[Essan]

 Snowshine    The warning ends 1 mile north of my house   

Forecast remains consistent here: rain, rain, followed by rain and then turning to rain.   Zero chance of snow in south Worcestershire!

[MattStoke]

UKV 12z can get in the bin 

[weirpig]

Back in dudley till Sunday. Bring on the snow 

[MKN]

 MattStoke unusual that as further south east in Hinckley leics the metoffice showing all snow until midday. 

[CoventryWeather]

 MattStoke surprised by that, I've still got snow symbols here. 

Unless it's delayed updating. 

[GokouD]

 MattStoke Booooooo! Let's face it though, we all know that's how it's going to turn out!

[MattStoke]

 GokouD Yeah it really just reflects how marginal it is. It'll chop and change.

[MKN]

Gfs Out to +54 and -5 850 temps are much further south. Hopefully this is a decent run.

Edited February 5 by MKN

[MattStoke]

 MKN Crawling towards the other models.

[MattStoke]

GEM finally on board.

ICON shows snow to rain, which is better than previous runs.

Full house for heavy snow in the North West Midlands.

Edited February 5 by MattStoke

[weirpig]

All aligning for a Midlands event ?  Starting to miss my snow fix 

[stripeyfox]

any chance for the East Midlands? 

[andy_leics22]

I don't think i've ever seen such a big difference between the UKMO and GFS at such a short timeframe. UKMO goes for the low pressure sliding away to the East, GFS goes for it to move North of Scotland If the GFS is correct, our snow chances are screwed. I Hope the GFS is wrong but it's been pretty bullish about this

[MattStoke]

 andy_leics22 GFS has shifted massively for Thursday.

[Don]

 MattStoke Metoffice showing sleet for me now all day Thursday, too.  However, like you say, will chop and change in the marginal setup!

 

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS has shifted massively for Thursday

Since the 6z?

Edited February 5 by Don