Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z further south! 

[MattStoke]

No idea how accurate the COSMO model is but it looks like a star for our region.

[nobble]

 I remember Atlantic 252 looks like anyone north of Gloucester in the game there

 MattStoke I rate it very highly

[MattStoke]

 I remember Atlantic 252 I’d take it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still pants on bbc, no snow at all King's Bromley

 

Edited February 5 by I remember Atlantic 252

[andy_leics22]

 MattStoke I'll bank that COSMO run!!!

 MattStoke It has shifted a bit but it still has the low steaming in and going to the North of us, dragging in mild air the UKMO is much better.

[andy_leics22]

Just checked on Metcheck for Leicester on Thursday. A snow to rain event with highs of 10c! No thanks

Edited February 5 by andy_leics22

[CoventryWeather]

Shocked to see such wild swings in modelling. 3/4 days out and still no consistency. 

This isn't finished. Expecting a mid solution now. 

[Dancerwithwings]

Still plenty to play for , I believe we’ll be seeing,  will it, won’t it, over the next 36hrs yet

[Don]

 Dancerwithwings Yep, a bumpy ride ahead! 

[Dancerwithwings]

 

 Don  Yes the rollercoaster begins

[Midlander]

Beggars can't be choosers, especially in this modern climate era. I'll take a few hours of heavy, picturesque snow, even if it does eventually all wash away

[Metwatch]

Pretty good confidence among the models as of this evening for a snow to rain event through Thursday in our region.

I think if you've got the elevation in North Wales, Peak District, anywhere in the west / north Midlands above 250m etc like those hills south of B'ham, could manage a few inches before it all washes away by Friday and the flooding concerns come back.

[Snowshine]

Gross...

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Pretty good confidence among the models as of this evening for a snow to rain event through Thursday in our region.

I think if you've got the elevation in North Wales, Peak District, anywhere in the west / north Midlands above 250m etc like those hills south of B'ham, could manage a few inches before it all washes away by Friday and the flooding concerns

I tend to agree with your snow to rain scenario, it maybe a slush mix, but like I’m saying it’s a fine line between where the cold will be, further north or south, atm the MO doesn’t even know that…..interesting times ahead come tomorrow regarding the forecasts and hires outputs

[MattStoke]

 Snowshine Buried alive.

Would be amazed if my area doesn’t see a dumping of snow from this. Just annoying that it will probably turn to rain Thursday night/Friday.

[Metwatch]

6 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

interesting times ahead come tomorrow regarding the forecasts and hires outputs

Defintely!

If the ICON was right most of us can say goodbye to any snow on Thursday, and only those in the Peak District would see something. Next 48 hours crucial!

If only I could have gone to north Wales this weekend instead of last

Edited February 5 by Metwatch

[andy_leics22]

 Metwatch The Icon is falling in line with the GFS. I would be very surprised if the UKMO didn't start back tracking towards what the GFS and Icon were showing in the next 24 hours.

[MattStoke]

 Metwatch That shows snow for Stoke. Not just the Peak District.

ICON is cannon fodder, though, and the GFS performs very poorly in these scenarios. It’s changed hugely from its previous runs.

[Dancerwithwings]

 MattStoke

lol, annoying for you, WOW….Ill be honest, I’ve actually seen just ONE flake so far, you’ve seen many many and  many’s ….so don’t think your hard done by

Anyway this isn’t the model thread….we don’t throw toys

[MattStoke]

 Dancerwithwings Stoke has spoiled me!

A poor winter here but way better than 95% of the country.

[Dancerwithwings]

 MattStoke

Dont rub it in

[weirpig]

 Dancerwithwing.  

Exactly we always tend to do well from events like this  expecting snowfall at 215m  for how long is the question 

[Dancerwithwings]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Exactly we always tend to do well from events like this  expecting snowfall at 215m  for how long is the question 

Can we make them heights at  215 millimetres instead

[Dancerwithwings]

12z hi res UKMO….we’ll just have to see