Moans, ramps and banter

[raz.org.rain]

  @knocker that thread still seems to be relatively dead considering the supposedly fantastic fl charts 

[raz.org.rain]

... actually scratch that, sounds like the cold ensembles are already under threat.

[Methuselah]

Here's a video about some of the biases to which we all succumb and why we are not 'due' anything: 

 

[markyo]

  @SunnyG Lucky? No i don't think so, this up coming summer could prove that to be very true. Climate change is going to be awful.

[raz.org.rain]

  @markyo you expecting the heat to reach the UK too?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still thinking horrible rain event on Monday, not being mentioned on here, just because it's not named storm, well named storms don't affect everywhere, and days can be worse without a named storm

[SunnyG]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Lucky? No i don't think so, this up coming summer could prove that to be very true. Climate change is going to be awful.

Your choice to be so gloomy about things that can't be changed (at least not in the short term). Personally, I like sunshine and warmth

[SunnyG]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

you expecting the heat to reach the UK too?

if only

[raz.org.rain]

  @SunnyG I can see this year being very plumey, supposedly there's already one on the way next week

[markyo]

  @raz.org.rain Hopefully not, last thing we need now

1 hour ago, SunnyG said:

I like sunshine and warmth

Don't forget at this time of year that comes with a cost. A very negative cost as well

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still thinking horrible rain event on Monday, not being mentioned on here, just because it's not named storm, well named storms don't affect everywhere, and days can be worse without a named storm

Looks to be a mostly Wales and north / north west England event, no concern needed for us.

Edited January 26 by Metwatch

[WYorksWeather]

35 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

I can see this year being very plumey, supposedly there's already one on the way next week

Forecast temperature outcomes keep varying, but fairly widespread 12-13C looks likely, spot maxima around 15C. The upside would probably be 14-15C with a spot reaching 17C. Doesn't quite look like enough to challenge the 20C barrier.

[raz.org.rain]

A lot of cheering going on for northern blocking making a comeback... but wasn't that the magic solution that failed to make an impact last week?

[SunnyG]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Don't forget at this time of year that comes with a cost. A very negative cost as well

Like I said, we can't do much about it so might as well enjoy it. Glass half-full sort of thing.

[Weather-history]

I think the best hope for winter lovers now is something akin to February 1955. That winter  really kicked in during the second week of February.

January 22-Feb 9 1955 CET: 5.8°C

 

[cobbett]

Something of interest at last - one to keep an eye on

[Summer8906]

A very nice day yesterday as polar air briefly got a look-in. It was sunny all day - the sunniest day I've experienced in the UK since at least the last Saturday in November, but with slightly more daylight than that day, particularly in the afternoon, perhaps the sunniest since mid-October. Also slightly chilly. A frost overnight too.

From the forecast it sounds like we're back to cloud from now on though. Normal-for-2023 resumes, but I note the Met Office forecast is bringing forward the chance of northerly outbreaks to mid-Feb. So perhaps we will get a sunny period in a couple of weeks or so.

Edited January 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

  @Weather-history A fascinating year by the sounds of it, one of the few years to have a cold winter and warm summer (see also: 1947 and 2013, and just about nothing else).

A 1955 repeat would not necessarily a bad thing in general, though May was cold and unsettled I think.

  @markyo IMO the more likely issue with the upcoming summer is that it will be too cloudy and - aside from one or two brief 35C heat spikes - there will be too many days below 20C.

(That said I would like colder weather right now though - perhaps a chance in mid-Feb?)

Edited January 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

  @Wade In central southern England in general, following snowy Januaries in 1979, 1982, 1985 and 1987, they have indeed become very rare. Next "proper" one after that was 2010 and then 2013. We could also add 1994 (heavy but short-lived snow event) and 2019 (started falling on Jan 31 though peaked in the first couple of days of Feb). One or two other years had thin coverings but I don't feel they really count.

Feb has also been equally barren: again following 1979, 1981 (slight), 1983, 1985, 1986, 1991, 1994 and 1996, there was then a big gap. Next was 2009, then 2012 in inland areas (not on the coast) and early 2019 (2018 being a narrow miss as it fell on March 1).

Imagine if 28C+ days, let's say, were as rare in July as snow in January!

[Summer8906]

  @East Lancs Rain I hated Spring 2020 with a passion, for the obvious reason. The fine weather counted for nothing; I enjoyed Spring 1983 (famously cold, dull and wet, for those not around then) very much more...

[Wade]

  @Summer8906 Well if your statement about the 28 degrees Celsius number of days were true, the population of the UK would decrease and places like Spain for example would increase. We are gonna have to get used to extreme heatwaves and less cold spells from now on sadly, they didn't think 40 degrees Celsius was possible in the UK until 2050 and look what happened in 2022. The way things are going and it only takes a certain synoptic and heat to be present, I would bet on 50 degrees being reached in the next 100 years....

[Summer8906]

  @Wade What I meant by this is that I'd consider 28C the "summery" equivalent of winter snow, so in a balanced climate, each would be similarly likely.

FWIW I actually enjoy warm weather in summer. Just not in winter. Hence my preference for continental climates, cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer, with snow in winter and thunderstorms (that do not break down the warm weather) in summer.

Edited January 27 by Summer8906

[Freeze]

12 minutes ago, Wade said:

I would bet on 50 degrees being reached in the next 100 years....

Even deserts struggle to reach 50 degrees, that's synoptically impossible on an island this far north. 40c was a push at the upper limit of what was possible in the most extreme setup.

[cheese]

  @Summer8906 I don't think the nice weather of spring 2020 counted for nothing - we still got out and about in nearby parks and country trails, and spent a lot of time in the garden. I live next to a major park in Leeds and I have never seen it so busy/packed as it was during May 2020, probably because there wasn't really anywhere else for people to go.

Edited January 27 by cheese

[Wade]

  @Freeze Nothing is impossible, multiple deserts reach 50 degrees on a daily basis, India has reached 50 degrees several times and quite a few parts of that country isn't desert. Not to mention a model predicted 49 degrees Celsius on the north coast of France in 2022 (even though that didn't verify and was far fetched) speaks volumes about the future. 

Edited January 27 by Wade