Moans, ramps and banter

[Downburst]

 ANYWEATHER Thing is n your day, and certainly mine, there was probably a mother at home if the kids had to be sent home, or a trusted neighbour or extended family. There isn't today and the kids don't walk and have never walked home. So it's a little more complicated and has a few strands to it. I get your point but society has changed in more ways than simply being soft, its structurally changed. A lot has changed and sending a load of 5 years olds out on the street to make their own way home like happened to me a few times in Primary school when pipes burst in the late 70's early 80's would have the headteacher in court now. Older kids from neighbourhood looked after us, it was normal then.

 

On the weather

If it wasn't for the models we would of course be in deep snow now. Too much energy displaced and far too much disruption from "pesky" short waves this year

 

 

[Summer8906]

 ANYWEATHER which part of the forecast? The extremely wet next few days, or the sunny day next Wednesday / anticyclonic weather thereafter?

[andy989]

 ANYWEATHER I agree but it’s  the way society has been shaped, rather than society doing it to themselves. The Small local schools of the past have all but closed and merged into larger schools that serve a much bigger area. So  People live further away from said schools now and rely on either public transport or their own vehicles, and we all know how inept the general public are when it comes to driving in snow, so it becomes dangerous in that sense. 
 

So when a society is shaped in such ways, it relies on information from the government regarding what to do, so when an amber warning amounts to nothing, is it society’s fault for reacting or the government’s fault both being wrong and shaping said society. 
 

Wrong forum for such topics perhaps

[Stabilo19]

Well, so much for a back loaded El Nino winter..

There isn't much wintry weather on offer in the GEFS and ECM ens right out to the end of February.  Time to call it a day on Winter 23/24?

[raz.org.rain]

 Stabilo19 hence why I'm sceptical that an El Niño > La Niña transition will have any significant impact on our summer weather, compared to more localised factors. The effects of ENSO on our climate are contentious at best, and we've often gone against the expected outcome.

[cheeky_monkey]

 ANYWEATHER schools never close here ..even when its -50c and there is a foot of snow.

[raz.org.rain]

"Broiling hot" may be a knee jerk reaction, but wow, look at those anomalies! 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

 cheeky_monkey yes that’s my point, people get on with their life even with mind blowing cold temps. This country is not Great Britain anymore. It’s a wussy like nanny state. We need a big change in our ideas and how this country is hopelessly run

[cheeky_monkey]

 raz.org.rain they are not anomalies they % probabilities of the temp being above normal for the period

[KTtom]

 andy989 Just seen that on the news. No-one said it was going to be easy to forecast but a very poor effort by the Met from what I can see particularly for north Wales.  If there was uncertainty it should have stayed as a yellow warning. From what the NW radar shows its pretty much a Pennines event only as far as England is concerned. 

Edited February 8 by KTtom

[Paul White.]

There no reason to moan today when we have that outside the window. 

[Downburst]

 Paul White. The corydalines will be moaning  

[mathematician]

 Paul White. there's since most of the country hasn't seen a single snowflake. 

[BarnetBlizzard]

Not normally this miserable but I think this has been the worst winter I've ever lived through. Never I have seen so many good charts at day 10-15 turn to mild mush once it gets to day 0. I had a 10 min snow shower in January and that was it.

A mild winter is easier to take when its expected and predicted but this winter has just drained me. It's the hope that kills you. 

[andy989]

 KTtom Yeah, I’m looking at Snowdon now and it’s only the top third that has a covering. I personally don’t remember a forecast being this wrong for my area 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Paul White. I don't know what that is ...

[wimblettben]

Agree with most people about how poor of a forecast this has turned out to be.

Was sure i had woken up to a different day when i woke up and looked out the window as to have yellow and amber warnings of ice and snow to only give the usual mild atlantic rain is quite something.

[Freeze]

55 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

There no reason to moan today when we have that outside the window

There's plenty of reasons to moan about today, non stop rain since 7am.

[Summer8906]

 Freeze Indeed, depends where you are.

Indeed February 2024 has so far been a very moan-worthy month. Dull, mild, damp and oppressively humid and sticky. The exact opposite of what late winter ought to be like, oppressive stickiness, humidity and damp scarcely being stereotypical conditions for the season. An utterly vile month so far, following December. Jan was merely below-par (4/10), but Dec I would rate at 2/10. Based on current models, I'd likely rate the first half of Feb 2/10 too, not quite as dire as 2020 but running that year a close second.

The 12 months March 2023-Feb 2024 have been utterly, utterly miserable. Dare I say it, for weather, probably the worst 12-month period of my lifetime.

 

Edited February 8 by Summer8906

[ThundersnowDays]

back to the rain affair after a couple of drier weeks, just wish it was snow for once! 

it feels like a winter with snow is rarer than without these days 

 

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

they are not anomalies they % probabilities of the temp being above normal for the period

So for here, it's 50%-60% chance of being above normal, so still a reasonable chance of a cool spring.

What we absolutely need is a spring that is cool, dry and sunny. Any other combination will be a disappointment.

Even warm, dry and sunny wouldn't be great (though better than dull and wet, of course) as all the flowers would finish too early, and we'd end up with a spartan May.

Edited February 8 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

GFS 12z so far even worse than the GFS 00z, the high next Wednesday never properly develops and the SW-lies are already invading by 12Z. Then it's more SW-lies until the weekend (so yet more dull and oppressively mild weather), but the rest of the run isn't out yet.

Guess we need to wait for the rest of the model but I wonder if we are likely to challenge for the dullest February on record?

Looking at the 12z I'm wondering where the next day with any significant sunshine is going to come from. Monday 19th, perhaps.

Part of the appeal of this time of year is the lengthening daylight but the endless dull, damp Atlantic grot is completely killing that this year. The light level is more like mid-Jan than approaching mid-Feb. Looks like it'll be pitch dark at 5pm today, welcome to the winter solstice. It's as if we've gained no light at all in the past 6 weeks.

The contemporary UK climate has nothing going for it whatsoever. If you like settled weather, dry weather, sunshine (or even being vaguely bright) ,cold weather in winter, snow, frost - and summer thunderstorms - don't even think about the UK in the 2020s. The current climate is execrable in every way imaginable.

February 2024 is basically the winter equivalent of July 2023, based on what's happened so far and what the models are showing for the next week or so.

Sorry for the long moan, but I'm just fed up of the endless months and months and months of dull, damp, drab grot and getting increasingly fearful for the current weather's impact on the spring.

Edited February 8 by Summer8906

[birdman]

10c here in tropical West Oxon 🌧

If we gonna have mild bring it on properly i say....roll spring/summer!

[Methuselah]

You've got to love this weather: 

[Bristawl Si]

 Summer8906

"....and getting increasingly fearful for the current weather's impact on the spring."

I'm intrigued by your comment - In what way, exactly?

Edited February 8 by Bristawl Si