Moans, ramps and banter

[markyo]

One can only hope now for a colder than average Spring. This winter has been a total non event for most, the odd day or two at best. Can you think if that was the same in Summer? The volume of moaning would be beyond belief!!. Anybody who says cold loving folk moan more about a lack of their preference than warm loving folk is sadly so so wrong. 

Here's to a lovely cold Spring, plenty of time for heat in the summer months, and Autumn months...as like last year.

[raz.org.rain]

I find myself wondering if 2024 could be that year that has us saying "yep, we've entered a new normal". Is this a sign of what to expect in the years ahead as the effects of climate change get amplified in our corner of the world, or is it just a case of having all the right synoptics but the worst of luck? 
 

I wonder if these persistent Iberian highs will continue into the foreseeable future, and what implications that'll have in spring and summer?

[WYorksWeather]

 markyo To be fair, having recently looked at the longer range models there's not much support for an overly mild spring - a fair bit of blocking showing.

However I have a different preference for this one - now that we've had a complete bust of a winter for the most part I have zero interest in a cold spring. That is, unless we're going to get a BFTE in early March, which is highly unlikely.

I'd much rather have plenty of days in the 15C and above range in March, with some reaching the low 20s. If we can't have that, then cool / cold at times is fine, as long as it isn't accompanied by wind and rain. We've had far too much of that.

I would take for example clear skies with warm sunshine by day but still chilly nights.

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather seems to be conflicting signals as always, I'm sure I've seen some long range forecasts that say MAM will be well above average, it might have been the ECMWF anomaly charts.

[Metwatch]

2023-24, The winter of discontent... for those seeking cold and snow.

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain The long range models have very poor accuracy anyway, so it's entirely JFF anyway, to be honest.

If I had to place a bet on it I'd go for maybe the traditional chilly start to March, but then gradually warming up from there. Difficult I think for any model to get a handle on things though until we pass the SSW event on the 20th February or thereabouts.

At this point temperature is really not that relevant, what we most need is a sustained period of dry weather to reduce the risk of flooding. Not sure how you'd rank them but the last 12 months has probably been in the top three worst periods of the century so far for that, probably alongside 2000 and 2007.

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather looks like the SSW is losing support now 

 

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain This would be the reflective type SSW I mentioned. This tends to turbo-charge the westerlies rather than suppressing them, so actually probably increases the likelihood of mild weather.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons Agree ...

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I keep thinking this and fills me with fear!

[LetItSnow!]

 WYorksWeather Who's to say it won't be another year to add to the pile of very wet years but with short, intense dry spells. I think, bar naturally occuring events like 1974-1976, our future is looking very green and muddy

[WYorksWeather]

 LetItSnow! It's certainly been a very wet period of weather since the June heatwave broke down.

I don't think a period like this could possibly be the norm going forward though, it is out of character even for the UK.

[damianslaw]

14 degrees combined with grey wet skies will never feel particularly mild, in February more so with the general dankness that pervades the atmosphere.

The Feb sun is still relatively weak, not until March when 14 degrees under light winds and sunshine begins to feel pleasant. 

[damianslaw]

 WYorksWeather Possibly the anomalous atlantic SST's are allowing the atlantic airstreams to hold more moisture combined with an omipresent high ridging through Iberia has enabled persistant moist tropical maritime airstreams to hold sway with added moisture thanks to more heat.

 

[WYorksWeather]

 damianslaw I think it does vary from person to person. I was walking around today for short periods in shorts, T-shirt and a light jacket and it felt reasonably comfortable. If it was breezy, or less humid, it probably would have felt colder.

I agree that proper shorts and T-shirt weather for sitting out for prolonged periods is at least 18-20C with light winds, and higher than that if there's a more substantial breeze.

[damianslaw]

 WYorksWeather My perspective is from a Lake District one, whatever the time of year an airstream between west and south, our usual direction, means cloud, overcast, drizzle or rain either light, moderate or heavy. In February it feels down right miserable.

[WYorksWeather]

 damianslaw Location definitely makes a difference with these things. And since you get more wind and rain, it probably needs to be a couple of degrees warmer to feel the same.

 

[stainesbloke]

 East Lancs Rain Neither would be ideal, though as summer is most important to me then maybe the latter. Though ideally, marked seasons are best

[SunnyG]

The mildness is especially felt at night. It's not at all cold.

[raz.org.rain]

 SunnyG almost feels warmer than some nights we had in summer.

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain  Some nights in July 2023 were definitely colder than the 12c we are having tonight.

[cheese]

A balmy 15C for us tomorrow

[damianslaw]

Keep meaning to book that winter trip to N Scandi each year.. think I must next year to guarantee some decent snow and cold! only part of europe that seems a safe bet for freezing weather nowadays. Knowing my luck if I do it will be there mildest on record!

I have a habit of visiting places when they experience notable warmth.. Moscow and St Petersburg New Year 06-07, expecting -10 maxes.. and it was all slush and muck with temps just either side of 0 degrees, Iceland late 07, stormy and mild... Portugal early June 22 exceptional early heat, Calgary 20 2010 Oct max of 20 degrees!... 

Edited February 14 by damianslaw

[Dark Horse]

 damianslaw My sister took her kids to there a couple of years ago to a town called Kuusamo to go on husky rides and what not. I keep looking at the "Santa claus village" camera in Rovaniemi and there's been snow on the ground since late October! Problem is it takes an age to warm up in that part of Scandinavia. Cold and snow very much possible well into April and even May some years.

[danm]

 damianslaw we took our kids to Lapland in December. It was -12c with knee deep snow. Highly recommended. 

A couple of weeks later it was -30c though