Moans, ramps and banter

[reef]

A mean of 13.8C here today. You have to go forward to 10th June until that is equal to the 1991-2020 average.

The max was 16.3C - the same as 17th May and min 11.3C, the same as the 30th June.

Staggering really.

[KTtom]

 johncam Just been down the garden for a smoke and there was one of those fat bodied spiders you get in autumn making a web on a bush...obviously survived the winter!

[johncam]

 KTtom it's mad how mild on the whole its been , wonder how much ground temps are above normal as frosts have a been at a premium as well.

 

[reef]

 johncam We're on our second long stint without an air frost this winter. The first was 38 days from 7th December - 13th January and the second is 20th January to now (currently 26 days).

The mean minimum temperature for us is at 5.1C at the moment, 0.6C above the record set in 1998.

[johncam]

 reef jeeso its so bloody depressing 

[Summer8906]

7 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

I do not want cold in March. It's a spring month, so I'm now looking for the first 21C of the year.

21C can wait until May to be honest IMO.

Remember that excessive mildness continuing through March risks the spring flowers coming and going too early, meaning May could end up rather spartan, particularly if May is also dull and wet.

This is why I think we need, at the very least, an average end of February and March, and ideally cold. If we don't, too many of the spring flowers will bloom while it's still dull and damp and the days rather short, and it will spoil actual spring. Some of the most beautiful springs for flowering occurred in years when it was coldish early on (spring 2010 for instance), while a year like 2014 had a rather muted spring due to excessive and uninterrupted mildness bringing things out too early.

On the other hand I'd be more than happy to see every day from June 1 to August 31 achieve at least 23C.

 

Edited February 15 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

I have a distinct feeling that unless we get locked into an unfavourable synoptic for a significant period of time, we'll have hit 21C by the first half of March.

Not so sure, it's too cyclonic and the ground is too wet. I doubt today's freakish synoptics will be repeated, more likely the max temps will flatline around 11-12C for the next few weeks.

Edited February 15 by Summer8906

[raz.org.rain]

Looking like we're due a stormy spell next week. Low confidence in any meaningful snowfall if any, but I'd imagine it will be very wet with depressed temperatures. Cold rain and wind usually is a safe bet. Ideally this will drag in some warm and dry synopics after it passes and bring an early warm spell.

[raz.org.rain]

 Summer8906 21°c before the end of March looks to be highly likely. I know some are going for a high likelyhood of 20°c before February ends, and it doesn't seem unreasonable to assume that a warm and dry end to March is very possible.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Important update, lo and behold....it's raining again! 

Only 12 hours since the last dumping of moisture so thought it worth sharing seeing as how desperately we need more rain.

[Dark Horse]

 raz.org.rain wouldn't surprise me there's definitely room for something unprecedented these days, considering 12 years ago I was walking round in a t-shirt and shorts during the March 2012 warm spell. Where has that time gone?? 

[East Lancs Rain]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Only 12 hours since the last dumping of moisture so thought it worth sharing seeing as how desperately we need more rain.

Gosh that is a long time to go without rain. It’s a wonder all the plants haven’t died of thirst…

[Wold Topper]

A couple of weather stations local to me recorded mid 15c today, although dank n grey i quite enjoyed the mildness,

Edited February 15 by Wold Topper

[damianslaw]

I bought new microspikes early Jan in the hope of a long snowy season ahead on the fells, sadly so far, they've not really been needed...

[MP-R]

 sorepaw1 seriously? When was that?

The lowest max I got was 16°C on the 31st!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 damianslaw better to have invested in bog-walking equipment!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

"Commuting to work 2023-2024 style"

 

[East Lancs Rain]

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Commuting to work 2023-2024 style

Probably more like this if it keeps raining lol.

 

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I bought new microspikes early Jan in the hope of a long snowy season ahead on the fells, sadly so far, they've not really been needed...

You probably jinxed the rest of the winter lol.

 

Edited February 16 by East Lancs Rain

[Alderc 2.0]

 johncam lots of trees already in full blossom down here.

[markyo]

 East Lancs Rain You missed the phrase " at this time of year". That was the key point.

A cold dryer Spring would be very welcome.

Edited February 16 by markyo

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain I'd say 20C before end of Feb is very unlikely given the models, if anything it looks like turning somewhat colder, though not actually cold.

 

Edited February 16 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

lots of trees already in full blossom down here.

Which is making me worried that spring will basically be spoilt this year as by the time actual spring arrives, many of the flowers will have come and gone. What use are flowers in a damp, dark, gloomy, Atlantic-dominated February if the price is a May devoid of its usual beauty?

To be honest I'm feeling fairly gloomy about 2024 as a whole from an aesthetic point of view. Spring flowering is out-of-sync which could spoil spring unless March is cold, I'm highly sceptical about summer given we only get a good one about once every 4 years, and autumn - well you've got to be really lucky to get a nice autumn!

And I'm starting to get concerned about March, based on GFS FI runs and the latest Met Office 30-day appearing to indicate that the first half of March may continue the mild, dull and wet conditions:

Quote

First half of March liable to see a slightly higher than normal likelihood of winds from the west then edging northerly later in the period. This likely leading to initially unsettled conditions with transitory settled periods and a milder Atlantic feel before increasing likelihood of colder and drier than average conditions toward mid-month.

The still-present "cold and dry in far FI". Doubt it'll ever happen. It'll probably be 2025 now before we get a spell that's both colder and drier than average. Cold and wet on the other hand? Second half of May and June, you can just bet it'll happen knowing our luck.

Beginning to wonder whether March will be a 9th consecutive wet month on that forecast. Has that happened in the past 50 years or so?

Edited February 16 by Summer8906

[baddie]

 Summer8906 For March to be another washout is just torture at this stage. At worst case scenario, maybe unsettled until the equinox then sunny and dry after (something like March 2020)

[cheese]

We have some sunshine and blue sky today, the birds are chirping, temp is 11C. Has spring sprung? 

[Summer8906]

 cheese Nah, way too damp and humid (here at least)... autumn's come back!

 

 

Edited February 16 by Summer8906