Moans, ramps and banter

[Summer8906]

 baddie  The equinox would be bad enough, as that would mean another 5 weeks of dull, wet gloom and would likely result in a 9th consecutive wet month. Just hope the Met Office and GFS FI are very wrong!

[baddie]

 Summer8906 At the moment, I can see it already getting colder from next Thursday, perhaps the "SSW" takes effect into early-March???? I just hope this doesnt ruin the chance of also having warm and sunny weather after the equinox

[SunnyG]

 Summer8906  These are the same people who on 5th February predicted snow for this week. They cannot be trusted on medium range let alone long range forecasts

 baddie So they say, but can they be trusted? I wouldn't trust anything beyond the 48 hours range.

[Freeze]

20 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Nah, way too damp and humid

I wouldn't use the word humid, as dewpoints are lower than 10c pretty much everywhere, damp maybe.

[danm]

Spring like again today, lots of sunshine and mild temperatures- not as mild as yesterday though. Lots of trees in full blossom. 
 

Time to put this winter out of its misery. Bring on Spring and Summer, longer evenings, t-shirt weather, drinking beer outside etc. If you look in the model thread all you see is cold rain on offer. 

[Atmogenic]

 Frigid yes i know there has been snow in march and april but it's completely useless due to the sun having warmth to it now, you''ll get about a max of 3 days if you're really fortunate with the snow and that is it because the temperatures are now higher then in december and January and that to me isn't a "winter" and also march and april are going into spring not going back into winter, so you'll have to be a lottery winner of model outputs if you want to get a winter sign back (and for it to stick from day 10 to day 1)

 

Also as many other people said by the headlines its turning milder and wetter which is saddening truth with how winters are nowadays with maybe the odd one or few days of something wintery happening (mainly in the highlands). I admire the motivation coldies have on here because i couldn't do it for that long, but there should be a point in them to think "ok it's been long enough now this winter and it's shown itself that this was a bust and is just tiring trying to find that one hope to pop up just to dimmish the next day".

Edited February 16 by Atmogenic

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 danm Yeah next week looks to be a return to "average" temps (9/10c maxes and 4/5c mins) for Feb for London, but of course, accompanied by rain.

You know what's less pleasant than mild rain? Cold rain.

[cheese]

We have a weather warning for rain and yet no rain is actually forecast.

[WYorksWeather]

Not quite as mild a day today as yesterday, but with readings only in up to 11am, striking to see that most of England and Wales has already reached double figures. Probably another 10C mean day possible in many areas.

[Summer8906]

10 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Yeah next week looks to be a return to "average" temps (9/10c maxes and 4/5c mins) for Feb for London, but of course, accompanied by rain.

That's average for first half of March, isn't it, not Feb? A clear sign of how hard it is to get even old-school average temps these days.

You need to get a northerly even to reduce things to the 1961-90 average, it seems!

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 If we use Kew Gardens, the February average is 9.2C max and 2.0C min, so mean of 5.6C.

The March average is 11.9C max and 3.5C min, so mean of 7.7C.

So the maxima are a little low for March, minima a little high for February.

If we take the lower end, 9C max and 4C min, then the mean of those would be typical of something halfway between (probably late February / early March). The higher end at 10C max and 5C min is closer to the March average, but obviously a smaller than usual diurnal range.

To be fair some of the modelling is a little cooler than that, and has daily means closer to 5C or 6C even in the south, but let's face it, that's still not 'cold' in any meaningful sense at this time of year. It might well feel cold though with all the wind and rain...

[Summer8906]

26 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

You know what's less pleasant than mild rain? Cold rain.

I think I'll have to disagree there, if we get two weeks of cold rain at end of Feb, beginning of March it would help slow down the spring flowering which is probably my biggest concern at the moment. We need a nice spring to cheer us up and overly-early flowering is one of the things which threatens the aesthetic quality of spring. So almost anything which will end the extreme mildness would be at least semi-welcome.

Just as long as a) it's actually cold, i.e. below the 61-90 average and b) it is only a short period, obviously I wouldn't want cold rain to go on beyond mid-March!

Edited February 16 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather mind you those are probably 1991-2020 temps which aren't really representative of the longer-term climate, think how many very mild Februaries and how few cold Februaries we've had in that time period. I always go on Feb being 7-8C as a mean max, I think of 9.2C as firmly in the mild category.

 

Edited February 16 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

 Summer8906 Ah yes, it does change if you use older averages - I was quoting 1991-2020.

If we do 1961-1990 instead for Kew Gardens:

February - max 7.8C, min 1.4C

March - max 10.5C, min 2.6C

Again, the warmth of modern Februaries is such that they're now warmer than a 1961-1990 March if you look at the last 10 years for the CET. So even the 1991-2020 average understates how much change has happened.

In terms of how to interpret these averages, they're roughly analogues for the middle of each month I would say. So if you have a temperature above the February but below the March, then it's late February / early March.

[East Lancs Rain]

Nothing springlike here. Just another bog standard mild day. Overcast, 9°C and drizzle. February average here is around 7°C so still a couple of degrees above average.

[Spikey M]

There's blossom on the trees and daffodils springing here. Wahoo.

[Freeze]

13c here, warmer than yesterday funnily enough! 

[SunnyG]

 cheese Same for London. This is what happens when you allow an algorithm do to the thinking for you...

 Summer8906 You must be a gardener or a florist... am I right?

[SunnyG]

 In Absence of True Seasons I'll believe it when I see it. My trust in official forecasts has dropped like a stone since last summer...

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Summer8906 Cloudy Autumn in Hampshire - It's never ending. Starting to hate living here tbh ...

 danm Sunshine? What sunshine? We were only allowed a day and a half of it this week ...

 cheese Quality cockup there

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Spikey M I've seen some tree blossom here too

[SussexSnowman]

Daffs are coming through already. This winter truly ending an a crud note. Stupid CC!

[baddie]

 raz.org.rain Our only hope is now a dry March. Surely, the weather gods has had enough of giving us misery since july with only a few short breaks

Edited February 16 by baddie

[raz.org.rain]

Another cold chase starting up, but I think most are tired of it now and want something much warmer on the horizon.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunnyG can't recall what comment you're replying to here, but yes, forecast faith is rock bottom after 2023