Moans, ramps and banter

[emmett garland]

I can honestly say I went out to the van to pick up a few bits and it just feels like an evening in early May,,No wind and a temperature of 13 degrees.. It beggars belief as its a constant..

[raz.org.rain]

 emmett garland feels oddly mild here too even after raining all day.

[SunnyG]

Though our forecast was wrong, we keep doing it again and again because why not.

[WYorksWeather]

The pattern just goes on repeating. Usual standard is that we see something colder in the extended range beyond day 10. By the time it gets to day 5, it either disappears, or is replaced with just a couple of days of average or below average temperatures. Then, we see a mild signal in the extended, which then upgrades and extends in duration. Rinse and repeat (literally, given all the rain).

Of course at some point the long-term run since late June of mostly wet weather has to come to an end. But it is remarkably persistent at the moment. There's nothing that seems to provide more than brief gaps of a day or two in the rain.

About the only positive I'm managing to find is that there's been a persistent pattern for the last few days at my location for the worst of the weather to start in the late afternoon around 3-4pm. It at least means there's some opportunity for outdoor activities before then.

Why can't we just have a UK high plant itself in place and refuse to move, for I don't know, three or four weeks maybe?

[SollyOlly]

 SunnyG I don't really know why they keep calling it "mild". It's 'warm'. And a big anomaly of warm, too. The trend is clear, surely...our climate these days is very much warmer, and much wetter. Some, of course, like it like that; others not. But it is what it is...

Completely agree that the mid- and long range forecasts are a bust. As a good few members have pointed out, historical comparisons and analogues are next to useless given the abnormal situation now. Accepting that people have a tendency to want to know, or have an educated guess, at what is to come...given the climate now, that is just very difficult. Although a broad guess of 'much warmer', irrespective of the season, is a pretty safe guess!

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather hence why I'm not entertaining the idea that March will be cold. We've been here before, only difference is there's practically no significant source of cold now.

[WYorksWeather]

 SollyOlly To be fair I think warm is probably a bit much. To me, warm doesn't really begin until you get temperatures into the upper teens, so only Thursday could have been considered warm, and not where I was. It was in that grey area where it's definitely not cold but not really much in the way of warmth I don't think at 15C. Of course by location your mileage may vary, so I don't doubt that in areas further south closer to 17C with light winds and more cloud breaks, it may have felt quite warm.

Very bizarre for February, nonetheless.

[SollyOlly]

 WYorksWeather Definitely subjective, I agree. But not having the heating on for days...sleeping with the window open...not needing a coat...in February?! That's 'warm' for me. Not that I like it, quite the opposite. Being older, I remember four seasons...we don't seem to have that these days! Not Midlands southwards, anyway.

[kold weather]

 WYorksWeather personally I still don't think it felt warm even on Thursday, the sun wasn't quite strong enough for that imo, but it did feel very pleasant and fir a few hours in the afternoon you could easily bin the coats and feel comfortable.

 

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain Yep, there's a lot of eye candy type charts being shown on the model thread. But there's no significant sources of cold to work with. Short of us getting a seriously impressive north-easterly or something the most you might see is some snow over the hills, more deluges elsewhere, and then it will go mild again.

The run will break at some point, because it has to. Looking into March at this stage comes with very low confidence of course, but the absence of a signal for a cold month means that by default I expect another warm month.

 kold weather Yeah I didn't think it felt warm necessarily either. It was still jacket weather for the most part, not really shorts and t-shirt.

If we get a very similar pattern repeating in March though, it'll get the temperature to nearer 20C, and that'll be the first properly warm spell, especially given the humidity.

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather I'm sure I've seen mention of a possible S/SE influence possibly taking over as we go into spring. Presumably this would be mild but also dry. However my two cents is that the Iberian influence will be a factor for a very long time, if not indefinitely. Climatic changes in Spain seem to be intensifying.

Edited February 17 by raz.org.rain

[East Lancs Rain]

4 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Woah the upcoming forecast looks an absolutely cracker, folks. 

 

Wow that sure looks great. All that liquid sunshine! And those temperatures.. Lovely and mild.

5 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

a wet one would be like a slap in the face after this autumn and winter…surely spring will be dryer?

You’d think so but with a strong possibility of an SSW, I’m not so sure…

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

If we are going to have a very warm summer, I'd prefer it to be more like a better version of 2023, with more spells of weather like that of June, with moderate heatwaves into the low 30s, than lots of changeable weather interspersed with ridiculous heat spikes into the mid or upper 30s.

If anything I’d rather have changeable weather with short heat spikes than long periods of less intense heat, gets it over with quicker.

6 hours ago, SollyOlly said:

Completely with you, mate. I'm almost fearing summer. Prolonged heat...please not! 

And I’m fearing a cloudy and wet 2007/08/09/10/11/12 type summer. Given the CFSV2 model is predicting a quick dissent from El Niño into Lá Nina. The last time that happened was summer 2007… (I think)

5 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

Considering that so far, 1995, 2003 and 2022 are very strong analogs, I'd imagine it's worth preparing for that while we can.

Oh no, the prospect of a warm and dry summer! Never had one of those before. I don’t know how we’ll cope….

Edited February 17 by East Lancs Rain

[WYorksWeather]

 SollyOlly I think this is where relative vs. absolute comes in. I would always use the terms 'mild', 'very mild' and maybe 'exceptionally mild' to describe periods of average, well above average, and very notably above average in winter, as it's relative to the season. But almost never 'warm', because that to me implies summer-type weather - shorts and t-shirt type conditions. The earliest that can happen is late February under absolutely perfect conditions, and more realistically March.

It's the same as in summer but in reverse. A period of below average temperatures might be described as 'cool', or 'very cool'. I would only start to describe it as 'cold' if it was no longer possible to wear summer clothes.

In short, I view one type of wording as relative, and the other as descriptive of the actual conditions.

For an extreme example, 35C in Death Valley in the middle of summer would probably be significantly cooler than average, but I'd still call it very hot, and -10C on the Antarctic plateau in July is significantly milder than average, but still bitingly cold!

[WYorksWeather]

 East Lancs Rain Sorry I'm confused? Do you want a warm/hot summer or do you prefer it cooler?

In terms of the heat, in my view there's absolutely nothing wrong with a warm or even hot summer. What feels 'wrong' to me from a UK context are the ridiculous temperatures we can now achieve.

A traditional UK hot summer is absolutely fine by me. Anything up to the low 30s is perfectly fine. We can have day after day after day of warm, very warm, or hot sunny weather and I'll take it.

However, I know this won't be the case in future, but if I had a choice in the matter, days like the 18th and 19th July 2022 would never, ever happen. I don't want to have to drink 4 litres of water to get through the day, or feel like I'm walking out into stale dragon's breath whenever I leave an air-conditioned space, or to need three showers a day, or for my bedroom to be over 32C at midnight despite taking preventative measures like closing windows and curtains during the day and opening them at night. That period was very unpleasant and also a little bit surreal.

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather it really would be Sod's Law if July 2022 becomes the norm much sooner than anyone expected. I like it hot and dry but 40° is pushing it.

[East Lancs Rain]

33 minutes ago, SollyOlly said:

I don't really know why they keep calling it "mild". It's 'warm'. And a big anomaly of warm, too.

I wouldn’t really call it warm, as although it’s been much warmer than average it’s still been around 11-14C and mostly overcast/rainy. I know London and some areas in the South have had a day or two of mid teens and sunshine, but further north it’s just been more of a typical very mild winter spell. It hasn’t been like February 2019 where we’ve had days of wall to wall sunshine and mid to high teens, with people out in shorts and t-shirt’s. That is what I would class as “warm”. 
 

 In Absence of True Seasons Where I am, the average summer high is only around 19/20°C and as my location does poorly for low sunshine and high rainfall, I prefer summers to be average or warmer than average with above average sunshine and below average rainfall. A warmer, drier and sunnier than average summer here would usually mean a lot of dry, sunny days in the low 20’s, which is probably my favourite conditions in summer tbh. So I tend to wish for a good summer.
 

While I’m not a fan of high temps (above 25C), it’s not too bad if I can sit indoors with the fan on and drink refrigerated water. I don’t really dread a hot summer as up here, the heat is nearly always less extreme than in London, and some summers don’t even reach 30°C here (last summer being one of them).
 

If I lived in London however, where the average summer high is 23/24°C, and where summer months have had average highs in the high 20’s, then I probably would dread a hot summer a lot more, especially if I lived in a warm stuffy flat with no air con. If I lived in London, I would probably wish for a cooler than average summer, if anything, because that would mean an average summer high of around 21/22°C, and the sunshine and rainfall amounts still wouldn’t be too bad, becuase It’s London.

[WYorksWeather]

 Wold Topper I can confirm that I am both gainfully employed and do have something of a social life!

I was out most of the day today engaging in said social life, so had plenty of time to comment on here this evening. More widely, I've had more time than usual this week since I've taken a bit of leave, so I've been off work since Tuesday.

Normal service will resume on Monday, though, and I'll be back to shorter and less regular posts.

[damianslaw]

Moaning about this long fetch murk infested south west airstream.. can it go away now please. 

[East Lancs Rain]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

Sorry I'm confused? Do you want a warm/hot summer or do you prefer it cooler?

In terms of the heat, in my view there's absolutely nothing wrong with a warm or even hot summer. What feels 'wrong' to me from a UK context are the ridiculous temperatures we can now achieve.

A traditional UK hot summer is absolutely fine by me. Anything up to the low 30s is perfectly fine. We can have day after day after day of warm, very warm, or hot sunny weather and I'll take it.

My preference in summer is for lots of dry sunny weather with temps in the high teens and low 20’s, maybe mid 20’s at a push. However high 20’s and low 30’s feels uncomfortable to me, so if we’re going to get a spell of hot weather, I’d rather take two days of 35°C rather than two weeks of 27-32°C temps. That said, I do not want a summer where it’s mostly cloudy, unsettled and 15-17°C either (unlike some people on the forum). A happy medium is what I want.

Edited February 18 by East Lancs Rain

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 kold weather I still wore a coat. Just not the down one! It really wasn't warm

[East Lancs Rain]

 *Stormforce~beka* Aren’t you still in a jumper though until it’s about 25°C?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 East Lancs Rain I am darling lol!

[Don]

7 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

I’ll be preparing…by dusting off my flip flops, summer dresses and garden parasol  we must be due a long dry warm spell this summer, a wet one would be like a slap in the face after this autumn and winter…surely spring will be dryer?

We had a hot summer in 2022, just 4 years after 2018!  Just goes to show how CC has changed our expectations for summer!

[CharlieBear9]

 Don Certainly has for some. There's been outbreaks of near hysteria if we ever get to enjoy refreshing rain instead of uninterrupted sunshine in summer over recent years, as though this is a recent phenomenon.

[Don]

 CharlieBear9

Indeed, you would have thought 2023 was a cool year going by many comments.  In reality it was the joint warmest on record!