Moans, ramps and banter

[danm]

30 minutes ago, cheese said:

yeah, it seems like people have become really reactionary regarding our weather recently. We get a period of warm, dry weather like 2022 and suddenly drought is the new normal - now we’re apparently going to become a rainforest or something. I think people need to relax a little.

As far as I’m aware experts have always suggested that winters will most likely become wetter. The other 3 seasons are less certain imo.

100%. I know this is the moans thread but there are at times some very extreme reactions. Yes, the last 18 months have been exceptionally wet, but we’ve also been through lengthy dry spells over the last 10 years. No reason why we won’t go through another one later this year. 

[Scorcher]

 cheese Not too bad (especially yesterday and earlier today). Not great for the start of the cricket season though- very little play at Headingley and none at all in the first 3 days at Durham.

[CryoraptorA303]

36 minutes ago, Met. said:

Do you think it is going to go back down again then, by the 2001-2030 period, because of climate change?

Probably not; the wet periods are becoming extremely depressing but the dry, sunny periods are also becoming absolutely vicious e.g. May and June 2023.

While recent winters have been dull, the average has actually gone up quite a bit since 1961-1990, and some have been abnormally sunny; I think 2014/15 is among the sunniest on record. Both 2017/18 and 2018/19 were also very sunny.

The extra sunlight in winter is likely sourced from the growing "autumn-ness" of the season with more stop-start systems becoming dominant. Despite being an absolute rainfest, 2013/14 was actually sunnier than average, purely from the whole stop-startedness of the winter. I remember quite a few sunny mornings and afternoons before/after the rainfests, whereas a dry winter like 2016/17 was actually quite dull due to the high cloud and inversions.

[markyo]

2 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:

After all, several people here have posted stats showing that annual sunshine hours have actually *increased* in the last decade or two. But more rain too seems absolutely nailed on. It's just the consequence of a warmer atmosphere.

I strongly suspect previous stats will be meaningless  soon. The changes that are happing appear to be non linear and of repeated recorded breaking  margins that only 2 decades ago would have been dismissed out of hand.

[CryoraptorA303]

 danm This.

Our climate is currently in a state of active collapse. The previous climate was disturbed beyond what it could account for and at some point in the last 30 years has completely imploded. As we're currently in a state of collapse, we can expect to experience both wet and dry extremes until a new climate regime establishes, which will take decades and a stabilisation of global temperatures.

Nothing is the new normal, right now nothing is normal, the climate that we once had has collapsed under the weight of extremely rapid global warming. Expect the unexpected, prepare for the unknown. We are completely in the dark as to what is currently possible. The only real certainty is our cold extremes are rapidly disappearing. As 2023/24 had the most advantageous teleconnections possible which will only occur again in another 15 years or so and completely failed, winter might as well be extinct now. We are never going to have a historically cold winter ever again, aside from the 1962/63 repeat which will likely not occur for another century or more, and by then it'll only really be as cold as the coldest winters of the 21st century. Our cold snaps will be restricted to perhaps widespread snow up north and in the mountains, and lying snow on low ground/further south every 10 years or so if it's particularly cold. By 2050 that'll be essentially never. By that measure I estimate that we will see perhaps four or five more snowfall (as in, lying snow over a couple cm that remains on the ground for more than a few hours) events outside of the Pennines, Scotland and the periphery in our lifetimes, perhaps the number that someone born in 1900 from lowland southern France could expect to observe in their lifetime.

[danm]

2 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:

I hope the last part of that will prove to be excessively pessimistic. After all, several people here have posted stats showing that annual sunshine hours have actually *increased* in the last decade or two. But more rain too seems absolutely nailed on. It's just the consequence of a warmer atmosphere.

Sunshine hours have increased, as has rainfall totals a little over the last few decades. It’s possible to have both increase - the wet spells are becoming wetter, yet sunshine totals can still increase at the same time. 

[cheese]

 Scorcher yeah, rain overnight resulted in pretty sodden grounds at Headingley on Friday. It’s been dry during the day though thankfully so at least play could start eventually. I don’t mind rain as much if it mostly falls at night. 

Edited April 7 by cheese

[Arctic Hare]

 markyo  danm Interesting the two different emphases you put on your respective replies. I'd like to think danm will be closer, but there's an element of hopecasting on my part there I'll admit. I could cope with a wetter climate if we got more sunshine out of it. A wetter climate that was also warmer but duller is not really something I can deal with with ease. Not that I'll have any say in it, of course!

Edited April 7 by Arctic Hare

[baddie]

We havent had any large diurnal ranges lately. Perhaps we will get our respite in second half of April and May, or September (Which often feels spring-like, with some big diurnal ranges)

[Azazel]

 SollyOlly this is where I really will agree with you. The weather is becoming so homogenous.
 

I think if we were guaranteed a proper winter, those who struggle with the heat would grin and bear a proper summer and vice Versa. 
 

I hate the uncertainty in this country of knowing that spring and summer might be rubbish and I might have to wait another year until a decent one comes along - and obviously I admit those who enjoy snow etc have much more to complain about in our modern climate. 

[danm]

21 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

Interesting the two different emphases you put on your respective replies. I'd like to think danm will be closer, but there's an element of hopecasting on my part there I'll admit. I could cope with a wetter climate if we got more sunshine out of it. A wetter climate that was also warmer but duller is not really something I can deal with with ease. Not that I'll have any say in it, of course!

Well the stats definitely show it has got a little wetter over the last few decades but also sunnier. Whether that continues I don’t know. 

[danm]

 Arctic Hare for London, the 1991-2020 period was 10% sunnier than 1961-1990, but only 3% wetter. 

[MP-R]

 Azazel Homogenous is the word. Who would've thought that the main extreme as a result of an evolving climate would be... extreme 'boredom'! 

[stainesbloke]

Homogeneous - a dull word in many ways. Definitely agree that the UK climate has become more bland. It’s like most of the excitement or interest has been drained and we’re left with largely dreary conditions, which were pretty common before but now are the default. 

[danm]

 stainesbloke for the October to April period id say yes. It is more bland. We rarely get extremes of cold now. But in Summer, the extremes have increased in recent years. All time record broken twice within the space of 3 years - 2019 and 2022, 40c barrier smashed, more frequent 35c+ days etc. 

[Alderc 2.0]

People have made valid points about more energy being in the atmosphere leading to more clouds, people have made valid points about drought risk. To be honest I think we need to expect both. We’re never going to have a Mediterranean climate (unfortunately) but I personally think we’re likely to flip flop between mild, damp, cloudy summers and those like 2022/2018/1995 etc. 

[WYorksWeather]

 danm I now usually say that 35C is the new 32 or 33C. It's roughly the benchmark for an average or slightly above average summer these days in terms of annual maximum. If we count from 2000 onwards, no summer has failed to reach 30C, 18/23 reached 32C, and 7/23 reached 35C (including, remarkably, five of the last ten). Of course the very recent trend of five out of the last ten might be exaggerating it a bit, but still.

But even if you go with the period since 2000 which is a bit more robust for comparisons compared to just using the last 10 years, then still a 35C year is just under a 1 in 3 chance - hardly a rare occurrence. You definitely can't say that about the 20th century - such a heatwave was really quite a remarkable occurrence, and in fact there were only nine such years, so an average return period of about a decade. And even using the period since 2000 almost certainly understates it - it's a constant moving target, so any sort of trailing average will tend to understate the changes.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I agree with the comments about settled snow on the south of the country. It's going to take perfect synoptics now to deliver. Anything else will be falling snow or cold rain. The recent snow in SW England was an example of perfect synoptics. The intensity of that precipitation helped deliver the snow to ground level.

I also agree with the idea of some unsettled damp summers and hot ones. It's going to come down to which side of the kinked jet stream we get stuck on. Even last year with our unsettled summer delivered a notably warm June and Sept period.

One thing moving forward that is certain. We will see heat records broken almost every year. We've already seen a heat record in Jan (19.9C), Feb come within 0.1C of the record CET, and numerous date records set since, including yesterday's highest Min CET.

Will the summer be hot? Absolutely. The devil is in the detail. Hot and stormy, hot and dry? Who knows, but I guarantee heat!

Edited April 7 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[MP-R]

 

2 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

It's going to take perfect synoptics now to deliver. Anything else will be falling snow or cold rain.

To a degree yes, but the only snow I've seen this year came from far from ideal synoptics - very marginal uppers, no embedded cold and southerly airstream in early March!

[raz.org.rain]

Hopes and prayers 

 

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain And on St George's day too!

[Arctic Hare]

This thread has been getting quite serious and scientific of late given it's the moaning (etc) thread, so let me drag the level down again for a moment by saying this late afternoon and evening feels like it's undone a lot of the (relatively) good conditions of the last week. I know they weren't very good everywhere, but we missed most of the daytime rain... until today. I was surprised and a little bit disconcerted how quickly my mood fell again with a thought of "Oh no, not more of this gunk!"

[Eskimo]

Off to prague this coming week and then off to Cyprus in May. I cannot stand anymore of this weather so having to seek sun elsewhere.

[Don]

4 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

As 2023/24 had the most advantageous teleconnections possible which will only occur again in another 15 years or so and completely failed, winter might as well be extinct now.

We may as well not even bother looking for signs of cold during winter now, it would almost be as pointless as looking for it in July/August!  Not that I necessarily disagree with you mind. 

Edited April 7 by Don

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, danm said:

for London, the 1991-2020 period was 10% sunnier than 1961-1990, but only 3% wetter. 

Yes but some months increase is significant for example February… 30.2% increase on 1961-1990! Really significant it used to be our driest month up to 1981-2010 now it’s third driest. 
 

I produced this graph 1948-2023… 2024 was another very wet February with 85mm.

Edited April 7 by Daniel*