General summer chat

[LetItSnow!]

 John S2 I believe they are talking about global telecommunications like SSTs and things like that. Analogues that use years with similar conditions on a local level (like say this year trying to look at summers following very mild Februarys) are useless as you can't just say "Mild February means so and so" because that mild February could have occured in El Nino, La Nina, a different ENSO state etc, it's just not worth the time.

[lassie23]

this summer will be hot and sticky for weeks on end with 23c recorded widely at midnight

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 lassie23 I'ld take it after this last year of rubbish ...

[Wold Topper]

 LetItSnow! telecommunications? great for talking to my cousin in Australia, not so good at predicting the upcoming weather

[LetItSnow!]

 Wold Topper There is a word for weather modelling when it comes to predictions from stuff like ENSO, SSTs, QBOs etc but God knows what it is. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 LetItSnow! the flip from niño to niña could be quite significant but it may have also a USP to it.  After all climate change is to be accounted for as well.   

[raz.org.rain]

 Addicks Fan 1981 I know some are theorising that the sudden flip could actually push us into an extended dry period, which goes against the narrative of the implications for such a sudden flip in our part of the world. I'll stick my neck out on the line and say that this summer will defy the hypothesis that ENSO transitions affect our summers.

[Alderc 2.0]

I’ve got a feeling summer is going to be anything but average and will be either extremely hot and dry (35%) or a disaster (65%) but leaning towards the later driven by Atlantic SSTs firing up a continuous and powerful jet stream aimed at Blighty

[summer blizzard]

 raz.org.rain Probability is not guarantee. 

I personally do believe that transitions do impact our climate however we must remember that in any given year there is a 33% chance of a cool, warm and near average outcome. That transitions may tip the scales does not mean that the likelyhood falls below say 1 in 5. You would not bet your car on it, but neither would you be shocked. 

[raz.org.rain]

 Alderc 2.0 I'm not particularly convinced that rain will be a theme of this summer, purely based on the fact that the current wet pattern we're seeing is unprecedented in duration and is more likely to see a flip to a much drier spell by the time summer arrives. There's also a handful of early suggestions that point towards heat being a theme. But, of course, anything is far from guaranteed at this point.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 raz.org.rain reckon the CFS V2 are right to be honest and can envisage july to September being very much like 1995 was.   1995 too started as an el niño and ended up la niña.   

[summer blizzard]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Current modelling suggests we flip much quicker and harder. Think 1998 or 2010.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 summer blizzard also we have to account for the anomolies with pressure, temperature and rain.  But also there are other variables thrown in the mix too, think so far 1973, 1998 and 2010 are looking very near to this summer indeed.  Think 1973 actually looks pretty near with the QBO and ENSO combo, PDO looks the same as in 1973 as well.   

[B87]

 Addicks Fan 1981 A summer like 1998 or an August like 2010 are the last things we need for this summer.

Both had bad springs as well.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 B87 thing is you have to cater for solar activity too as well as the AMO and what the state the PV is in.   I think also 1973 should be taken notice of, I wasn't alive at the time, however that had a swift niño to niña transition - the summer of 1973 apparently wasn't too bad at all.   If we take into account the QBO/PDO then 1973 is looking a very strong match indeed.    

[B87]

 Addicks Fan 1981 1973 also had a bad spring, including an atrocious April. July was awful.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 B87 we also have to take into consideration climate change and climate trends.  Now over the past two years we've had 11 plus on the CET front annually and if we keep things up at this rate its very hard to get out of.    2023 also was the warmest year globally.    

[raz.org.rain]

 Addicks Fan 1981 close analogues so far are 1995 and 2018 I think, @CryoraptorA303 will know more about that. There's also suggestion that a recovery of the strat over April will be favourable to something much warmer and drier come summer.

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 raz.org.rain cheers for the tweet on that.   So it looks like the strongest analogues on it are 1973, 1995, 1998, 2010 and 2018.    

[Methuselah]

 raz.org.rain But analogues go wrong almost every year? 

[raz.org.rain]

 Methuselah so we can assume that a washout cool and wet summer isn't guaranteed either based on analogues such as the ENSO transition.

[Methuselah]

 raz.org.rain I wouldn't forecast anything. . . 

[kold weather]

 raz.org.rain there are always going to be other factors. With that being said historically a strongish nino that too rapudly goes La Ninw tend to be on the poor side. If we get a slower transition through summer then we may get away with it.

However we haven't got a huge number of years to compare with and you do need to take each year at its own merit.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 kold weather I would love it if @MattHand @Tamaracould come on here for their thoughts on this impending summer coming up if they are not too busy.   We need their help basically.   

[WYorksWeather]

I've not seen anything to dissuade me so far from the idea of a very warm/hot extended warm season (May to September). Rainfall is tricky. Not much more than a guess but I'm currently going for clearly drier than average but not notably so.

For the summer, CFSv2 is going for a notably hot summer (remember that this is 1-2C above 1991-2020, not 1961-1990!). But it's also going wetter than average especially for Ireland and western areas of GB, which seems like a very odd setup. I'm almost trying to think how we could get a setup like that.

It's not month-to-month variation either - all three months are relatively similar. Again, this would be a totally unprecedented summer pattern. I know others keep mentioning 2023 in this context, but it's nowhere near hot enough. You're talking about a summer with the warmth of a 1976/1995/2003/2006/2018/2022, but as wet as 2023. Bizarre, frankly.

Anyway I'm disagreeing with the CFSv2 and saying it's going to be a very warm or hot one but I don't think it'll be as wet as the model is showing.

I'd be interested to know the stats actually on a monthly basis. I've already established from some reading that there are no overall summers that would be similar to what this model is showing. But does anyone have any good examples of very warm or hot summer months that were also significantly wetter than average? Trying to think what sort of pattern we could be in for if the model were correct.

Again, all just a bit of fun - the CFSv2 is like a coin with a slight tendency towards the right answer - it has very low prediction skill, as the skill masked version shows - most areas have very low forecast skill.