Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[frosty ground]

Anyone calling the icon a downgrade and getting emotionally invested in runs 7 days away at the placement of a low needs to take a few months off.

the icon is clearly in the envelope of outcomes and again it’s not about how far north or south the low gets it’s about how far east and shallow it can become.

also it’s the icon … can’t upload image 

[northwestsnow]

 frosty ground the icon is a huge downgrade though ?

I posted the 850s to prove it.

Let's hope the others upgrade

[frosty ground]

 northwestsnow

but it based on a low pressure that’s position won’t be anywhere near right at this stage. And the same can be said about the other models.

 

 

[Snowman.]

 frosty ground

Doesn't mean it's not a downgrade? It's not a great run but it doesn't mean it's right either.

[Don]

A Friday afternoon of miserable runs coming up?!

[Mcconnor8]

 Don Have a feeling the GFS 12z will be a good run at least, the 6z ensemble pack improved a lot and early on the 12z looks much of the same.

Interestingly the Arpege 12z which only runs to T+114 seems to bring some heights into Greenland that weren't there on the 6z and aren't on the ICON 12z.

Edited February 2 by Mcconnor8

[frosty ground]

 Snowman. on the 850’s yeah but is the overall pattern of lowering heights to our south still shown?

 

had the icon shown something completely different then yeah I could get it.

 

 Don that’s what we are here for…. To find out

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo awfu! again!

[Paul_1978]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ukmo awfu! again!

Why? And why not post a chart with a bit more narrative?

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 12z 🌨❄

[Jordan S]

Looks like the Icon is just a slower evolution to cold in the south anyway for later next week but most models agree on potential significant snow over some parts of northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland Wednesday/Thursday and Friday mostly in line with thoughts several days ago, though I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Midlands and north Wales come into play by Friday next week with snow risk from the fronts parked over the country by Friday/Saturday, the Icon and other models are all providing realistic outcomes as to how the cold air will progress south later next week, so if you want the low later next week to clear away and not “scupper” cold chances per say, then although it does look set to move into central and southern areas i wouldn’t be too bothered as it does look to clear to our east or southeast either way by next weekend and bring the cold down with it.

Not before it deepens over the UK possibly substantially first though with strong winds in the north from an easterly quadrant but as it’s a week away there’s the risk of changes to the low and it’s fronts and location, but I wouldn’t of thought by much. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Why? And why not post a chart with a bit more narrative

 

[IDO]

The snow boundary will vary over the next 3-5 days for D6 prospects. Compare 06z -v- 12z GFS:

Midlands is on 06z, and Scotland is on the 12z.

[Kentspur]

 northwestsnow short term pain for long term gain look out west heights arising 

[Captain Shortwave]

Not really commented much because the situation later next week is pretty fragile but obviously if the low ends up too far north then the flooding risks will return with a vengeance given the chances of several hours of heavy rain if the milder air remains  in the south. Clearly the best solution is the low remaining south enough to given frontal snow with strengthening east to north easterly winds bringing showers in off the North Sea.

The UKMO looks pretty much broadly wet for next Thursday, the GFS has snow over Scotland and the far north of England. At least the UKMO does have some heights behind the low unlike the 00z that had rapidly declining heights to the north west by the end of next week.

Edited February 2 by Captain Shortwave

[saintkip]

 Kentspur yeeasshhh and it keeps getting put back and suddenly it’s March 

[Battleground Snow]

Gem looks the best for next Thursday again.

There will be further chances after Thursday if we bust on that day though.

[Ali1977]

WOW , this time next week is really looking good!! I’ve hoping some altitude helps but feel many should have a good chance! 

Edited February 2 by Ali1977

[MJB]

 Lampostwatcher

You'd take that 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

WOW , this time next week is really looking good!! I’ve hoping some altitude helps but feel many should have a good chance! 

Snow showers into north england

[That ECM]

[IDO]

...so by D7 on 12z, there is a 12-18 hour delay for snow down south versus 06z:

The good news is it is just timing!

[Ali1977]

 Lukesluckybunch nearly the whole U.K. by Friday night 

[BarnetBlizzard]

That's a lot of snow on the GEM for some central areas.

[goosey007]

 Ali1977 are we ignoring the ukmo and icon output then ? Not being funny just interested to know why gfs is trusted so much at 7 days. ….also feels like the snow line needs to be in northern Spain for it to verify at t0 for the south of the uk  !!