Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[CoventryWeather]

 bluearmy Understandable, but what the ECM showed just shows that solution still not out the question. What, about 100miles further south from the morning run - big adjustments in a short time frame. Could be a trend or just a weird one off run..

There are ensembles on all the models that show a risk of it much further south - of course it's nothing until one of the ops show it. 

Anyways the GFS isn't interested in the ECM solution so outlier for now. Let's see what the morning does. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Snow into Scotland early Saturday morning  on the 18z

[Nath]

Looks like we got ourselves another cold chase over the coming week looking at todays models!

 

Lets hope the chaser messes up for once and we get through to the proverbial final for a change!

[blizzard81]

 TEITS Not often you say that? Really? Lol

[MJB]

Next weekend is shaping up cold and wintry 

Edited February 3 by MJB

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs copying the ecm!

[Thomas Green]

Don't know if this is the right forum for this but it is to do with the output but I'm becoming increasingly concerned with very high spring tides being next weekend and with this low pushing south on Saturday into sunday with a northerly- easterly behind it coming straight off the North Sea and me being on the east coast at the moment, this could produce some very high tides on the east coast, hopefully the low pushes a bit further northwards or the winds turn slack otherwise my part of the woods might be in some trouble by next week

[blizzard81]

At least we can now lay to rest that potential snow in England on Thursday. Scotland has this. However, like I said earlier, there has been a turn for the better on the 12z suites for next weekend onwards for some form of winter cold for our shores. Let's see how it develops. 

[bluearmy]

 CoventryWeather ec op is almost in the same place as yesterdays 12z which is 50m further south than the 00z run. Still pretty much north of the M62. Haven’t seen any ec runs much south of the M62 for a number of days. 
 
I said a notable correction south which for me would be to get it as far as Birmingham. can’t see it. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gefs mean takes it north at 138!

[blizzard81]

 Lukesluckybunch Well blow me down with a feather! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well blow me down with a feather

I've been looking at the forecast for my region on xc weather..couple days ago it was showing 2/3c Friday next week now it's 9/10!

Edited February 3 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[feb1991blizzard]

Terrible charts - no blocking advertised - erm......... just a 3 wave pattern thats all with the vortex in tatters.

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z settled on a UK high for a while, but at T360 - surprise, surprise - it’s now on the move!

Think we’re going to see some fascinating evolutions in FI over the next few days before the models converge on which one is actually going to happen, but all the signs now are that we have a real chance of nailing a proper cold spell.

[phil nw.]

I think it's becoming increasingly likely we will see an Atlantic high or strong ridge development ,once the trough heads east next week end.

Ensemble guidance is trending that way and this opens the door to the cold heading south.

What follows that will be interesting.

[blizzard81]

 Mike Poole Certainly half of one brow raised since the 12z suites for 12th Feb onwards. We've been here before though. Let's keep our powder dry for now. Certainly until the Monday morning runs. 

 Lukesluckybunch It's been going that way for the last couple of days now unfortunately mate. 

[Allseasons-Si]

OK,...good models today

[feb1991blizzard]

[LightningLover]

 feb1991blizzard  Synoptically similar, but no where near the severity of that legendary spell!

 

I think we all have to remember that the sun becomes an increasingly formidable force as February wears on, so better uppers and deeper cold in general is needed for anything widespread/noteworthy! So I for one am keeping my feet on the ground for now (especially as an East sussex dweller).

Edit: Mind you... The frames following that chart are not to be scoffed at! Certainly would be long lived/entrenched cold.

.

Edited February 3 by LightningLover

[Daniel*]

All looking swell from the fundamentals did anyone see EC control? It must have been quite the spectacle AO nosedives off the map. No doubt major SSW from that. A cold March surely doesn’t have an insignificant probability this year.

[Mcconnor8]

ECM 18z Control was much further south than the 12z run with the low on Thurs/Fri next week.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello - is it me your looking for says GFS after a poor Icon.

Edited February 4 by feb1991blizzard

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs not great really...ukmo snow showers and cold into northern England and Scotland early Saturday!and spreading south!...ukmo168

Edited February 4 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Mike Poole]

Concentrating on the medium range timescale, and the development of high latitude blocking, GEM already showing signs at T240:

GFS a slower burner this morning, but well on the way there now at T330:

[Daniel*]

UKMO looks snowy at face value but lack of cold air is concern.