Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[CoventryWeather]

 Lukesluckybunch Not really a poor run, oh wait, is this a bit of southern bias again? 

Nothing has changed, cold next weekend and a wedge moving NE through the UK. That's always been the case..

[winterof79]

 Lukesluckybunch chill bud its just as the system encroaches from s/w

and its one run.Please analyse every 12hours for a more accurate comparison 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

yep days 4-7 has cross model agreement and days 10 plus also has cross model agreement. Sad face justified

It looks really quite excellent approaching day 9!

[That ECM]

[IDO]

Day 10 on GFS 06z v 0z:

Entropy post-D6-7 is high.

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Not really a poor run,

Nope, those in the north of England and Scotland would have thought it was an excellent run.  There's a whole host of cold options on the table at the moment, we're just going to have to be patient to see how the pieces fall.

But days 8-10 on the GFS are not bad at all.  Perhaps setting up something even better down the line.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Here comes the new surge of WAA..at 258 helping to keep the high in place over scandi!

[blizzard81]

 Harsh Climate Hi mate. Lol, I think that ecm op has thrown a bit of a curve ball. That's all I will say for now. I still think it will track north but time will tell. 

[Uncertainty]

A full on easterly on the gfs, and following the footsteps of the ensembles? Not to be dismissed.

Is there a lot of model fatigue? Really surprised this spell (post low-gate) is not eliciting more interest. Some have quickly dismissed it. This feels like the start of a significant cold spell.

Also if the low does stay on the ecm trajectory we’re looking at amber warnings for snow. Again surprised at lack of interest.

The BFTE was weeks after our period of interest e.g end feb vs mid feb. And that had phenomenal interest on here.

Edited February 4 by Uncertainty

[rwtwm]

33 minutes ago, TEITS said:

One significant point about the ECM ensembles is the fact that the control follows the operational.

The full ensemble suite on the ECM is run at the same resolution as the op. The Control and Operational are therefore always going to align. 

It's only a relatively recent thing, but the two lines moving in tandem doesn't provide the same insight it once did.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/model-upgrade-increases-skill-and-unifies-medium-range-resolutions

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

Is there a lot of model fatigue? Really surprised this spell is not eliciting more interest. Some have quickly dismissed it. This feels like the start of a significant cold spel

Because as is always the case..it's outside the reliable and can't really be trusted.

[Kentspur]

2 days in a row the 6z the pick of the fi charts for me perfect ENEly set up for the South  the Midlands and Eastern England hope its the trend setter GFS run

Edited February 4 by Kentspur

[TEITS]

 Uncertainty Synoptically the 06Z is superb with regards to the E,ly. The downside is prior to this the low for next weekend is dragging very mild S,lys into Europe. 

Still not worrying about upper temps just yet. Ideally I would like to see the low next week track S but also be sausage shape rather than a bowling ball.

 

[sheikhy]

Arpege 06z even more enlongated at only 102 hours compared to the 00z!!!!🌨🌨

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, TEITS said:

Still not worrying about upper temps just yet. Ideally I would like to see the low next week track S but also be sausage shape rather than a bowling ball.

Not worried about the low pulling up southerlies.the cold over scandi doesn't budge..and eventually that's where our source will probably come from

[winterof79]

Yes Sheikhy

[blizzard81]

 winterof79 Harsh Climate will like that. 

[sheikhy]

 winterof79 that my friend shall be all snow from midlands northward throughout!!!

[TEITS]

 blizzard81 In my experience once the shift S occurs it rarely goes back N in this situation. Much more likely to continue tracking S.

[winterof79]

 sheikhy i concur

[Pembroke Dangler]

 TEITS My eyebrow was raised this morning with the ecm showing a big correction south but my other eyebrow is raised looking at the aprege, could be a south of the M4 affair come tomorrow’s 00z and then Channel Islands by the 00z Tuesday.

[Mike Poole]

 Uncertainty Yes, I agree, the models are suggesting this could turn into a spectacular late winter cold spell.  I think, perhaps, posters on here invested too much in what was a very long chase for something very mediocre in January, and are perhaps being over-cautious second time round.

GFS 6z has this at T270:

Very consistent with what the ensembles are saying about expected developments to our north on this timescale.  It would be very unlucky to miss out on some memorable winter weather from this, will be fascinating to see how it pans out.

[blizzard81]

 TEITS I know what you mean. They generally do. This is a very complex one. The cold surging down from the north, quite an energetic atlantic. All about timings of course. Don't get me wrong. I hope I was wrong yesterday with my confidence about it tracking north. I hope the adjustments south continue but something tells me there's a lot yet to be resolved with this one. 

[blizzard81]

Big upgrade on the 00z mogreps. Many more cold runs from the 8th. This is what we need to keep seeing - upgrades at short notice. Many of the memorable cold spells started with upgrades at short notice. 

[Spah1]

 Pembroke Dangler

If it does end up in the channel UKV will be 300 miles out only 100 hrs away.