Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[winterof79]

An increasing probability of an easterly flow establishing around the 14th Feb not overly cold as yet but ....then heights transfer(shuffle to Greenland) a recurring theme through Feb

If im wrong ,so be it but that's my take

850 Temps trend lower down south than Scotland eventually depending on position of  temporary Scandi high

Moyenne shows the evolving Greenland high via draining heights from a short Scandi development 

Edited February 4 by winterof79

[TillyS]

Hi everyone,

Busy on the move at the moment and over the next month, including a week in the Scottish Cairngorms (hope I see some snow!) but wanted quickly to comment.

The 6z GFS is in full-on ramp synoptic mode but it’s an odd odd run. It looks great but doesn’t deliver particularly cold uppers. The set-up ought to produce better results on the ground.

The UKMO isn’t really buying into much of this and, after the last debacle with its non-existent easterly, I don’t have full confidence now in the ECM.

The trouble is, this is all still in thoroughly unreliable timeframe. Usually that means it will go pear-shaped.

The week ahead looks to be a tussle with temps non-conducive for snow in southern Britain (sorry GFS). But high ground to the north should be favoured.

We need to wait and be patient for next weekend onwards. That’s a long time off meteorologically and it would be sensible to exercise considerable caution. I’m not convinced the Atlantic is ready to lie down yet. Nor is the Iberian High off the menu.

 

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

probability of an easterly flow establishing around the 14th Feb

 

“Probability" and "14th February”, which is 10 days away, are mutually incompatible.

There’s a possibility but not more.

Feet on the ground folks. Let’s learn lessons from the recent past.

[winterof79]

 TillyS

Forgive me but what output re invigorates the Iberian high or for that matter the Atlantic.

My feet are on the ground and i made a forecast which i stand by.

Not bothered about previous "lessons" as its what my hobby is all about 

Edited February 4 by winterof79

[Met4Cast]

The main period of interest for me is later this month, 20th February as a broad timeframe for something more interesting in terms of winter weather. AAM/GWO is firmly routed in Nino attracter phases and the recent strong +AAM tendency is starting to show signs of propagating poleward through this month. 

At the same time, the MJO will be moving slowly through phase 7 and possibly into phase 8 giving a little more credence to blocking amplifying towards Greenland, GEFS ensembles are broadly pointing this way.

Meanwhile the stratosphere is once again becoming an interesting topic of conversation, the GFS in particular is quite bullish on a major SSW, reflected by the strong heat flux (likely triggered by the recent and to some extent on-going strong +EAMT event)

A major SSW at a time tropospheric patterns are aligning to produce patterns favourable for blocking/cold outbreaks, we've been here before this winter and saw how a SSW disrupted the pattern, perhaps we can get a bit lucky this time around and see a SSW super impose onto the trop amplifying colder patterns? Those hoping for an early spring come March might be in trouble.

 

[winterof79]

Go on then lets throw in some anomalys.

I tend to work on signals from all output then form a possible outcome

[That ECM]

Exeter upgrade, I’m off to Tenerife. It’s nailed on.

Edited February 4 by That ECM

[winterof79]

 That ECM your not wrong

[offerman]

 TillyS

well said things always, keep getting pushed back on the charts.  Like you say when the charts are far out such as 10 days or even further, just take with a pinch of salt 5 to 6 days can start to be taken seriously, but even that subject change
 

completely agree with you about your last decade comment with the lack of Easterlies . 
 

 

 That ECM what Exceter said? 

[bluearmy]

06z eps control is similar with Thursdays snowfall but thereafter the cold doesn’t head south as per the 00z run 

I think for now the Thursday snowfall is what should be concentrated on 

[Ali1977]

 bluearmy looks borderline for many, which sometimes produce the big snow events I guess!! 

[CoventryWeather]

00z mean Vs 06z mean

A tad further north, meaning are we heading towards a middle ground solution? Atleast it's not in France this time. 

[AO-]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Meanwhile the stratosphere is once again becoming an interesting topic of conversation, the GFS in particular is quite bullish on a major SSW, reflected by the strong heat flux (likely triggered by the recent and to some extent on-going strong +EAMT event)

Good afternoon,

The SSW you are talking about may as well be the final warming of the season before the stratosphere gets into Summer mode. I could be wrong though. What bothers me is that everyone keeps talking about interesting developments beyond two weeks in the future. First it was the second half of February and now it is already the 20th. It certainly is nice to have a hobby, but the double figures we experience now is the reality sadly enough. If I compare the ensembles, they have gotten a tad worse since yesterday. Too much mild air is pumped North before significant cold can arrive. The mild period of next weekend has been extended by a day or two which is not great. That's what is up with GFS. EC in the other hand has improved a tad with respect to cold next week. We still do not have an outcome yet as it is a very complex and delicate situation in which 100 miles makes as lot of difference. I would not put all my eggs in the basket of an SSW as the MJO may as well deliver already next week if one prefers a Scandinavian high over the Greenie one. 

Edited February 4 by AO-
Typos

[Ali1977]

 CoventryWeather it’s very close, the centre of the low is pretty much the same - I’d say the 06z is more squashed and oriented better for snow lines to be slightly further south!!  Hopefully another  shift south on the 12z as we start to get to reliable timeframes

[TEITS]

  TillyS Remember this conversation on the 29th Jan. Lesson to be learn't is not to dismiss any model run that suggests a colder weather pattern. I have re-read some of your posts on this thread and all you seem to do is dismiss any cold charts.

Special mention needs to go to Dennis from Norway who has made some incredibly accurate posts.

 

[Harsh Climate]

 winterof79

Check out the latest bbc graphics, well further south

Obviously only to be taken with a pinch of salt at this range but nonetheless...

Edit:

And this for Saturday

Edited February 4 by Harsh Climate

[SLEETY]

 TillySwhat non existent easterly from the last cold-spell.We had lying snow on the beach from it when the uppers went down to minus 10 on the monday

[Ali1977]

 Harsh Climate just using the 00z ECM I think 

[Mcconnor8]

 SLEETY we got the first laying snow in a good few years here lol with heavy snow for a couple of hours, we really do need easterlies to produce much here usually with the colder 850s they bring and the models do look promising in this regard for the period around the 20th.

[Ali1977]

ICON at T90 looking a little further south and flatter 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON further south

[Ali1977]

 Lukesluckybunch still only hitting the north on Thurs, maybe better further south for the weekend though - it’s a slight shift south though so a good trend for the first 12z 

Edited February 4 by Ali1977

[SLEETY]

 Mcconnor8 yes and its looking like they could appear again by the back-end of next weekend.

Maybe that gem run of bitter easterlies a few days ago was on the correct path.

They can even bring snow-fall and settling snow up to around mid-march,here.Remember March 2013 for example

[AO-]

Double digits in a great part of Britain next weekend. Also Europe pretty mild to a large extent. It takes a while before a northerly or northeasterly emerges to bring in the cold. The course of the shortwave is wrong if it is cold you want. 

Edited February 4 by AO-

[blizzard81]

Icon not agreeing with the southerly ecm track for Thursday. Gfs and ukmo up next. 

 AO- Yep, don't like that icon run at all so far. 

[Chesil View]

 AO-

That would be assuming the icon is correct.