Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON better then 0z troughing further east!..nice start to 12z guys!

[blizzard81]

 Chesil View it's not exactly up there imo. I think we need to pay attention to the ukmo with regards to Thursday now. Also the high resolution models at short range. 

[AO-]

 Chesil View

It is in line with the other models. Here is the EPS of London this morning. EC and GFS: 

 

[winterof79]

 Ali1977

South pennines looking tasty for late Friday and Thursday

 

Edited February 4 by winterof79

[Jordan S]

As promised here’s an update, if you live across northern England, southern Scotland and by Friday/ Saturday parts of the north Midlands and north Wales then I’d keep a close eye on the snow for later this week, potential is there and rather high of significance snowfall and accumulations on high ground in parts of Scotland and northern England in particular, but higher parts of Northern Ireland too at risk of snowfall from this potent frontal system towards the end of this upcoming week. Plenty of moisture coming into the south into this weather front will keep the longevity of it going, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if 30-40cm accumulates on the higher hills in the worst effected area, snow not just falling on hills though, likely at times falling to lower levels too in most of the areas listed above excluding the midlands and Wales at first anyway, possibly producing several cm’s of snow in places with a cold easterly/northeasterly wind giving the risk of blizzards over the Pennines.

For southern England and south Wales looks very wet at times with strong winds as this synoptic pattern change takes place, by the weekend particularly Sunday, most or all of us will be in colder air with precipitation mainly in the form of showers later in the weekend largely falling as sleet and snow in northern and central areas, hills in the south.

Just a quick look at before Thursdays-Saturdays, snow events, an active frontal system with possible hill snow on its northern edge over northern areas will be across southern areas later Tuesday into Wednesday bringing heavier rain and strong winds perhaps gales along the coasts, rain could linger in the far southwest and south as Thursdays low and associated fronts move into the southwest. 

I’m really pleased with how my outlooks have highlighted this weeks and next weeks change to colder and potentially snowier conditions, of course others have indeed alluded to it too  but for now it all seems to be going to predictions thus far.

gfs as a general example but doesn’t mean it will exactly look like this..

There is the small possibility that the outlook changes significantly to a milder outlook and makes me look like a mug ️ but that’s unlikely.. I hope  

To all you lovely lot, I do hope you get the snow you desire, I like to be non biased, but in this case a cold outlook is the main focal point as most routes and indications point to a fairly significant though not exceptional colder spell from the 12th with potential for snow in any precipitation, this on balance looks like it will be the most wintry week to 10 days of the winter from Thursday onwards generally, though that isn’t saying much.

 

Will probably give another update on Wednesday so look out for that one if you wish. 

[Mcconnor8]

 blizzard81 GEM verification is often close to the ECM & UKMO, however yes the JMA is not a good model at all, ICON is behind the top models as well

[geordiekev]

Pleasant change to have some interest & cooling down before the mid month interest, as dreaded the idea of a long drawn out chase, whilst wading through 2 weeks of upgrades/downgrades

[CoventryWeather]

ICON weren't the best of runs but best thing about it was it also had a southwards shift on Thursday low. Becoming a trend, would be surprised if GFS continued it's rather steep northwards option. 

[Tim Bland]

Even east anglia and east mids gets snow weds on this run !

[Lukesluckybunch]

T78 the low with a negative tilt..could be heading south again!

[Battleground Snow]

Decent shift south so far, interesting to see ukmo in a minute.

 

[Harsh Climate]

 Tim Bland

Wow this run is a huge upgrade so far, snow as early as Tuesday for some!

Back edge snowfalll as the front clears south.

[Tim Bland]

06z Vs 12z …that’s a big shift south!

[Kasim Awan]

Arpege South.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Breaking news!ukmo 96!

[Ali1977]

Arpege big shift south 

 Lukesluckybunch yes big shift south 

[bluearmy]

 Lukesluckybunch Ukmo 96 is a big change indeed at just day 4

[Blessed Weather]

 blizzard81
Here's the latest 5-day 500hPa forecast verification chart from the ECMWF website for the period 5th Jan to 25th Jan. It shows a very respectable and steady performance from GEM (CMC). The worst performing model appears to be the NCEP/GFS with the forecast accuracy graph line lurching from a good performance one day to a poor performance the next. JMA performance similar. Interesting that over the 20 day period even the UKMO comes bottom on occasions. Also interesting that all models had a bad day at the office on the 24th Jan - I wonder what caused that?
But the main take is that ECM is top model.

Source: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/plwww_w_other_ts_upperair?area=NHem Extratropics&day=5&score=Anomaly correlation

[Ali1977]

Boooooooooom ️amazing for the midlands and m4 ish on the UKMO at 120 - what a crazy shift south that is

Edited February 4 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

Massive shift south ecm and arpege!midlands wolloping!!!expect gfs to come in line by morning!!!!

[IDO]

GFS -v- UKMO:

Most of us would put our money on the UK at this range (D5). The GFS blows up the UK low and is worse than the 06z run!

Edited February 4 by IDO

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Boooooooooom ️amazing for the midlands and m4 ish on the UKMO at 120 - what a crazy shift south that is

Would Oxfordshire be a good place..?looks really good ukmo120!

[Ali1977]

 Lukesluckybunch I think Oxfordshire would be great for snow with that chart , hard to tell what temps are though!! 

[Harsh Climate]

Has anyone got any charts for UKMO 12z on Tuesday? Is it showing a snow risk like on GFS?? Can only see 72-96h

EDIT: Found them

Looks like the risk is here on UKMO two.

  

Edited February 4 by Harsh Climate

[That ECM]

 Ali1977