Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[KTtom]

Nothing scientific about this, but taking the 'big 3' as an example, if you get to t120 and one of them shows the milder route, in the UK then you can bet its nearer the truth than not..gfs was labelled a joke and not following 1 single ecm perb this morning...we await ecm to see it it holds firm...think I know what most are thinking. 

To get some abnormal weather events here in winter we need 3/3 agreement by day 4.  Was it not @Tilly getting a hard time backing gfs this morning...things may change but its hard to see anything noteworthy for south of Manchester. 

Edited February 5 by KTtom

[frosty ground]

not many ensembles get the low past the U.K. but when they do it’s grand 

[mountain shadow]

The latest forecast by the Met Office is for only a small chance of snow here on Thursday. 

That indicates that the GFS can be ignored and the snow line will be South of Northern Ireland.

[CoventryWeather]

I'm heading off again before the ECM comes out, but I'm still heading towards the models continuing this shift south. The cold front is moving through faster tomorrow on the 12z, ideally what the midlands needs to get a possible snow event on Thursday. 

I doubt models have got the final solution, probably tomorrow evening but perhaps as late as Wednesday evening. 

[Froze were the Days]

44 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

UKMO 168h preparing for Scandi height rise, similar to many EPS members at that lead time.

Sorry...but how have you come to the conclusion based on that 168z UKMO chart and LP over Scandinavia (again)?...you could easily argue too that there could be Iberian height rises.

[Lukesluckybunch]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sorry...but how have you come to the conclusion based on that 168z UKMO chart and LP over Scandinavia (again)?...you could easily argue too that there could be Iberian height rises.

I wouldn't be so confident of that at 168...the jet is trying to push North again,and trying to push cold air with it!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm looks to be further south for thursday?Wales central southern England?

Edited February 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Cold Winter Night]

 Froze were the Days

Like I say in that quote, the development on UKMO is represented in the 0z EPS set, with the Low moving away NE through Scandinavia, and that Atlantic Low pushing up heights through the UK towards Scandinavia after that. EPS 0z P6, P40 for example.

And yes, some preceding Iberian height rises may be involved as part of that, but that's not strange in the setup of Scandi Highs.

Nothing is guaranteed, but I see no reason for despair. Let's see what EC/EPS makes of it tonight.

[Mcconnor8]

 Lukesluckybunch

Looks very close to the 6z, maybe a touch further North more so over Ireland.

However a definite move North by 96 Hours.

Edited February 5 by Mcconnor8

[Ali1977]

EC 

Edited February 5 by Ali1977

[Decemberof2010]

Warning area from the MO looks well represented here

[Tim Bland]

ECM has some snow in the morning but soon turns back to rain in the afternoon. Struggling to get excited by sleet. Only place likely to see any lasting snow is highest ground eg Peak District imo 

[Cloud 10]

12z ECM brings some interesting conditions across the North on Friday.

 

 

ECM seems to be doing a GFS.

Edited February 5 by Cloud 10

[Mcconnor8]

ECM goes GFS at T+120

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Tim, very like 3rd Feb '94, also a Thursday

[Tim Bland]

 Cloud 10 it’s all very transient though isn’t it. By lunchtime it’s rain for all in England. Looks like sleet at best for most away from Scotland I’m afraid 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Now the ecm..looks bad at 120!

[MJB]

 Ali1977 I am clinging on there Ali............................just lol 

[nick sussex]

 Mcconnor8

Absolutely woeful performance by the ECM and UKMO .

Both wrong at T96 hrs .

[Lukesluckybunch]

It's really like the gfs here at day 5

[Sweatyman]

i have to say that this is a blink and you miss it affair! will i even see a 1st flake of the winter?

[Geordiesnow]

 nick sussex

The way your going on, you think it was showing high pressure at 96 hours to be replaced by low pressure. The reality is it's only a variation on how the low behaves and now both models are going with the GFS showing the more "bowling ball low" instead of the slider set up.

Whilst what we are seeing now looks the most likely solution, there is still time for the minor details to change. 

 

[Ali1977]

 MJB yeah I’m clinging on, but it’s all a bit disappointing - again !! We have very little time for it to swing back the other way - probably way passed that chance to be fair

[MJB]

1 hour ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

GFS Op is a massive outlier in the short term.

Let's not forget this 

[sheikhy]

Gfs has absolutely smashed the euros apart!!!one of em is bad enough but to smash both of em out the park that is embarassing!!!gfs has defo been on it over the last few months!!!!ecm and ukmo i really cant understand what has gone wrong with em especially the ecm!!!!has there been any tweaking with the ecm system over the last year?!!!!ukmo im sorry to be wrong like that at 3 days out you gota question it!!!!enjoy wateva snow we can get for us midlanders in the short time frame!!!