Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[bluearmy]

 blizzard81 that’s expected blizzard. - question is whether it’s in association with a scandi surface high or part of a general rise in heights just to our west 

[blizzard81]

 Lukesluckybunch Yep, there just wasn't ever enough forcing from the north to make that incoming atlantic become a squashed boiled egg. It was always going to turn into a bowling ball and go north. Terribly modelled by the ukmo and ecm. 

[SLEETY]

 Lukesluckybunch yeah ECM rubbish,lets hope its wrong.or we are miles away from a prolonged cold-spell

[andymusic]

Don't forget though all the models in the world would struggle with this scenario and they always seem to in the UK - a fine line between snow/sleet/rain areas - ukmo (meto) still on board with warnings and the beeb - mountain forecasts temps lowered even in the south of the UK - this could still be a down to the wire event yet - it's happened before and will happen again

exactly @Polar Maritime

Edited February 5 by andymusic

[MJB]

I would see where it sits within its ENS first 

[KTtom]

 SLEETY or 10 months

[Mcconnor8]

 MJB UKMO has any precipitation over the weekend as rain as that is even with the coldest uppers of all the models

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Yep, there just wasn't ever enough forcing from the north to make that incoming atlantic become a squashed boiled egg. It was always going to turn into a bowling ball and go north. Terribly modelled by the ukmo and ecm. 

Have to agree mate...it was always a risky set up with this trough,because as it came through it was always pumping milder air up into scandi..and if course we are on the wrong side of it all!

[blizzard81]

 bluearmy Neither - try uncle barty instead. 

[Polar Maritime]

 andymusic Absolutely, Even down to now casting/radar watching.

[SLEETY]

last two frames of ecm might be good,azores high linking up with Scandi high?

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, MJB said:

would see where it sits within its ENS first 

Gefs mean was actually ok!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, SLEETY said:

last two frames of ecm might be good,azores high linking up with Scandi high?

Lol sleety..don't make me laugh

[MJB]

 Lukesluckybunch Sleety has a point Luke

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Sleety has a point Luke

Lack of cold to tap into..

[blizzard81]

No no no. Please.... No. This would be mind numbingly boring. 

[Penguin16]

When there is such a huge difference at 2 3 days time compared to the previous run I wouldn’t hold much credence for what is pronged for day 9/10.

Edited February 5 by Penguin16

[MJB]

 Mcconnor8 It might well do but it doesn't have to be -8 uppers for snow in the UK, my main point though was we aren't out of the cold air and it hasn't legged it to lapland where there are -12 uppers.

[frosty ground]

 Geordiesnow 

the issue is simple the ECM doesn’t get the centre of the low past the U.K. it’s more than a minor difference, the GFS could have called this right im sure we will find out by the morning 

[SLEETY]

need that freezing air in the NE of Europe to head west,216 ecm is trying lol

[bluearmy]

 blizzard81 that’s not a Barty though  …wait for a bit later than the frame after before drawing a conclusion on the direction of travel 

[MJB]

 Lukesluckybunch

see that -24 to the right   

[Derecho]

If that high nudges further east we can get a nice early taste of Spring!

Given that early February was supposed to be dry with winds of an easterly component in the MetO long range forecasts, you wouldn't bet against the mildest solution possible verifying.

[Lukesluckybunch]

There appears to be no real trend though...all very transient stuff!

[Mcconnor8]

 MJB

UKMO is becoming isolated in that sense though with ECM producing this for the weekend the same as the GFS