Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[bluearmy]

So by day 12, all the ens suites have a decent greeny upper ridge but as I mentioned earlier today, the root of the ridge is rather close to Iberia which makes it difficult to get a cold flow in from the north. If we can get the jet to undercut the ridge then we need cold air in place to deliver battleground snowfall 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

 Cheshire Freeze

Yes - SSW likely now.

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

So by day 12, all the ens suites have a decent greeny upper ridge but as I mentioned earlier today, the root of the ridge is rather close to Iberia which makes it difficult to get a cold flow in from the north. If we can get the jet to undercut the ridge then we need cold air in place to deliver battleground snowfall 

Like Thursdays being the new Fridays and 50 years old being the new 40, is Day 12 the new Day 10 BA?! 

[Sherry]

Quite pleased to see the models are toying with some very mild air too! Quite spring like looking at the ensembles 

[Duane S.]

 Cheshire Freeze  Yep, we’ve  got all the hallmarks of a cold March incoming

[bluearmy]

 feb1991blizzard don’t know yet 

if anything today has stepped away on the ncep suites 

but it probably won’t matter as the reversals above 70N will likely lead to -AO in March 

Edited February 5 by bluearmy

[Marting]

ECM as expected at the top end of its ensembles. 15 dayer stays below verbal the way out 

Edited February 5 by Marting

[LRD]

17 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

All coming together for a cold March, isn’t it.

I'm sure I recall people saying that in Dec, for Jan and in Jan, for Feb

But, actually, I do agree

[Gowon]

KMA sends the vortex packing

And the micro beast comes to visit on the JMA

Edited February 5 by Gowon
added and

[MJB]

 12TH - 19TH

19TH - 26TH 

26TH - 4TH

 4TH - 11TH

These are very strong signals the, next few days will show if the EC 46 really has any credibility 

Edited February 5 by MJB

[Cambrian]

Here’s the ECM Thursday snow chance demise in all its gory detail, for all to see.

Yesterday’s 12z ensemble mean at 96h vs. today’s at 72h, heights / pressure 

 

and T850s.

 

Exactly, neither can I - unless it’s that version of the demise where the colder T850s are now modelled further south in what is turning into one heck of a battle zone, with much of the detail far from being resolved. 

[stodge]

Evening all

Well, colour me none the wiser after this evening's output.

GFS 12Z OP has certainly thrown a proverbial in the works with having the LP move away to the north - ECM is just a mess. GEM and some of the others keep the idea of the LP moving away east and heights building behind and moving into Scandinavia and I suspect that is still widely shown in the ensembles.

GEM 12Z OP takes the energy south east into Europe and to be fair GFS 12Z OP starts down that road but the ridge quickly builds in from the Iberian HP and cuts the energy too leaving the main LP to the north of the British Isles and a small cut off LP in Europe and the mild airflow quickly re-establishes.

There's a huge amount still to resolve especially for the weekend but certainly a much wetter spell for southern counties than we've seen in the past 3 weeks. 

[LRD]

If we do get a cold 2nd half of Feb, hats off to EC46 which, yet again, shows a cold 2nd half of Feb into early March. It's been showing this for days if not weeks

[stodge]

 LRD In all fairness, most expected a back-loaded winter which really means from mid-Feb onwards.

The early December cold spell was a bonus and the current 3-week mild spell (based on a mild January) was also well touted in early winter forecasts.

I'd also argue there's a lot to be resolved and a lot happening so as ever more runs are needed.

[ANYWEATHER]

Well ,victory to the gfs ,ecm as I expected has chased gfs ,so wintry weather will be all fantasy ......on to the next cold chase, will soon be Spring ,roll on!

[cheeky_monkey]

 stodge back loaded winter to me is Mid January onwards not mid Feb...just saying

[Mike Poole]

I wish people would stop declaring victory for the GFS (or the like) when neither its solution or that promoted (until this afternoon) by the ECM and UKMO has yet verified.

[jellybaby1969]

Gee what depressing reading...Thursday is all to play for lots of shower potential for the north no conclusive pattern set in stone yet winter is over..roll on spring ...looking fwd to milder weather etc. usual one liners.

[feb1991blizzard]

19th-26th should settle a few nerves in here again.

[nick sussex]

 Cambrian

That might be the case but the ensembles after that aren’t as good .

The ECM and UKMO will now have less weighting until they repair the damage to their reputation .

[AO-]

Even though the EC is a downgrade from a Synoptical point of view, it still fits within the ensemble. It is on the mild side, but 2m temperatures for next week did not downgrade a lot. I think for Britain the difference is much bigger. Nevertheless the cold has been postponed (again).

Here is the EPS of tonight compared to the one of yesterday. I would prefer to see another evolution as well, but apparently patience is again the key word. The southerly jet wil get there eventually, which is great for Spain. How it will be up north is still the question. By next week the vortex is probably blown up, but then again, everything has to fall in the right place for winter. 

Edited February 5 by AO-

[knocker]

Good to see that the mid Feb. amplification eases appreciably by the beginning of March.

[Mike Poole]

A look at the medium term evolution, from the ECM clusters, first T192-T240:

The signal across the clusters is towards northern blocking.  The presence of the high towards Russia probably tips the algorithm into assigning these as Scandi block (red border) as this weights the high pressure to the east of the Atlantic region, but the area that will affect the UK is more central on clusters 2 and 3, and to the NW on clusters 1 and 4.  The concern though, as I mentioned this morning, is the fuel to build this high pressure tends to be from a ridge through the UK, so there is no cold incoming immediately.  

T264+:

Cluster 1 has a Greenland high moving to Iceland.  Cluster 2 has a Scandi high retrogressing to Greenland.    Cluster 3 has a Greenland high drifting west.  Cluster 4 has a strengthening Greenland high.  Cluster 5 has a Greenland high drifting north.   These are all rock solid consistent with the expected direction of travel from the 46 dayer, which still shows this today.

We would be extremely unlucky not to get a substantial cold shot out of this, although, palpably, we do seem to be extremely unlucky this year.

[Ali1977]

Just looking at the EC ensembles for Thursday and still have the sub 0c 850s around the M4 at lunchtime - something tells me there’s still chance for some southern correction with this - maybe I’m hopecasting for my area - but as many know, these fronts often move south nearer the time. 

[LRD]

ECM 850s for MBY

Warm, but not an outlier in FI. Not many very cold runs (-10 850s) in this lot it has to be said