Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[BarnetBlizzard]

 bluearmy  If you were to choose a location for the PV to displace to increase chances of a cold spell for the UK, where would it be?

[bluearmy]

 BarnetBlizzard Birmingham

[BarnetBlizzard]

 bluearmy  haha! Ok what about Scrussia - how does that do for us?

[IDO]

 bluearmy Yes, I agree. I was watching that cold pool skirting the Siberian high:

[Ice Day]

Well the GFS is trying its hardest for us at day 11

I suspect deep FI will be very good, but it's deep FI.  Certainly, though, it's picking up a pattern change towards the end of next week.

[feb1991blizzard]

 bluearmy

Yes, if we get a split, it needs to be a) wide, b) favourable placement of daughter vortices and c) coupled with trop for decent amount of time, too much can go wrong, problem is it may be the only way to get a -13c - 15c Easterly, albeit in March!

[IDO]

At last, at D13 we look for retrogression as the Siberian high is cut off:

Obviously JFF but this was my expectation, but delayed on this run.

[Ali1977]

Arpege Way further south , 15-20 cm in my neck of the woods and much of the midlands  - clearly that’s wrong!! 

Edited February 6 by Ali1977

[daz_4]

 Ice Day It wouldn't be GFS 6Z to not show the coldest outlier for Central Europe  

[sheikhy]

 Battleground Snow according to the arpege we get absolutely pummeled 48 hours from now and then remain cold as well!!!

[Eagle Eye]

Secondary AAM rebound appears to be well underway, momentum being added to the atmosphere, significant jet shift surely likely for the NPJ, perhaps displacing the Pacific trough as has been expected for a while. This appears to be helpful in Greenland high forcing still. Interested to see how accurate the response forecasts tend to be in this scenario. 

[Battleground Snow]

 sheikhy

Yep, classic met office curse of moving a warning that.

I see a small window from 6am - 11 am for accumulations for our region (with some elevation)

[Mcconnor8]

 sheikhy Latest UKMO run moved North slightly on the 0z run, models all over the place still!

[sheikhy]

 Battleground Snow to be fair id rather them not have a warning at all!!most of the time nothing comes out of it so it maybe a blessing for us this time!!

[ICE COLD]

Great chart -

But oh look no cold air to be seen

[bluearmy]

 IDO this run is an ok fit with the cross model ens suites with the NH profile (perhaps a little progressive ) 

[feb1991blizzard]

if this went out further.........

[Dennis]

the cold air will fight

[bluearmy]

 feb1991blizzard I just think a full atmospheric split will lead to the same evolution as we saw in jan with the American segment heading back to the Asian side 

[Dennis]

EC ENS GH-Scandi  

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Control going ok!

[Ali1977]

 sheikhy add the AROME to the ARPEGE moving the snow south

Edited February 6 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

 BarnetBlizzard it’s ok - the further south the better. Scandi even better because it should help keep the Atlantic ridge further west and further south means the phasing from the Atlantic jet is far enough south to keep us fully cold 

[sheikhy]

 Ali1977 yes buddy!!!ecm 06z shall be interesting!!im.more focused on thursdays event than anything after lol!!!even though nothing shall probably come off it at least its closer compared to anything 10 days or more away as usual lol!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

the AROME to the ARPEGE moving the snow south

You just never know..it could be start of a new trend!