Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Don]

32 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep. Just that bit too much energy in the atlantic this winter.

Down to warmer than average SST's?

[MP-R]

 Cheshire Freeze if accompanied by stubborn Iberian heights, I foresee a wet March… just for a change

[Mcconnor8]

Interesting difference in the Rain/Snow line between the GFS 18z and ICON 18z at just 36 hours away on Thursday morning.

Edited February 6 by Mcconnor8

[raz.org.rain]

 MP-R you never know, we might get an early warm spell with some of the fl outputs that are being suggested. Looking at some of the shared traits across the outputs it seems more logical that any hypothetical SSW takes the route of least resistance, which currently appears to be Eastern Europe. I believe some of the outliers were even hinting at a Spanish plume? They could be onto something, as the mild outliers have often turned out to verify so far.

Edited February 6 by raz.org.rain

[Purga]

St Valentine's Day massacre of NW coldies' dreams

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain  I have a theory (okay it's more of a hope than a theory) that if we keep mentioning the Spanish plume it will eventually come to pass

[feb1991blizzard]

 bluearmy

WOW, looked a downgrade on recent runs on the graph, it must be that the pattern is there and had the graph gone on another week, there would have been a hefty cluster of -10c flatliners.

[Dennis]

watch the outcome of the 60N reversal soon into the charts

[Ali1977]

Dog with a bone the Arpege, defo a slight move north though 

[bluearmy]

 feb1991blizzard the dice are important because with a blocked merifional NH pattern,  we still have to get lucky 

[Mcconnor8]

 Ali1977

Yeah GFS on the 18z was the furthest North of any run today so think we will see the Arpege move towards the other models over the next few runs.

UKMO 18z also shifted North a tiny bit.

[ICE COLD]

 bluearmy lucky = that’ll be the day

[Metwatch]

December 2015

Edited February 6 by Metwatch

[Don]

 Purga

Reinforcing my fears thoughts..... 

[Jordan S]

Small changes in the short term have changed the synoptic evolution somewhat for next week, no surprise to anyone at this stage, winds from a more southerly quarter bringing rising temperatures into the south and southwest and an increasing risk of low pressures gradually moving into the southwest and west of England as the week progresses next week seems more likely now, but higher pressure still looks to build to our northeast then northwest at this stage.

If blocking to our northwest does deliver more significant cold to the UK, it may well be the end of next week or beyond, contrary to my previous updates.

I think the Gfs is too progressive with the lows and subsequent milder temperatures everywhere by early next week even if it has done well per say recently.

Its all very messy but the north should atleast cling onto slightly colder air first half of next week from the east or southeast though fairly dry at the moment, high pressure to our northwest beyond though remains more probable for now, allowing potential very unsettled conditions into the south, battleground snow for central areas and a possible return to cold conditions enough for wintry precipitation for northern areas, last part similar to my post last night.

[Don]

 Metwatch It's over!

[Nick F]

Good grief, the pub run couldn't draw any worse charts for coldies this evening. Are we going to have to hope the likely SSW will reverse our bad luck this winter? Of course it may not be a quick trop response to it too. Or will the MJO / AAM help us out? A real struggle to keep up the enthusiasm for any cold and wintry weather coming down south before Feb's out at the moment!

Edited February 6 by Nick F

[Johnp]

Just looking at some of the early GEFS runs at day 7, there are still some potential lovely outcomes. Wouldn’t be surprised there was a “wtf” run in the morning. 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Jordan S said:

If blocking to our northwest does deliver more significant cold to the UK, it may well be the end of next week or beyond, contrary to my previous updates.

Any potential cold either fails to materialise or gets put back though, similar story in 2018/19?

[Don]

 Nick F It's just been one of those winters I think and not likely to change now?  However, I'm becoming ever more convinced that it's simply not just a case of bad luck now?

Edited February 6 by Don

[Daniel*]

45 minutes ago, Don said:

Down to warmer than average SST's?

Unsure about that the North Atlantic is actually pretty close to 1991-2020 average right now, it was freakishly warm last year. So I wouldn’t expect westerly winds to be much milder. Much above average SSTs are seen in subtropical Atlantic off Iberian peninsula and down to NW Africa, more southerly maritime flows are exceptionally mild.

 

[Jordan S]

 Don

Does seem that way doesn’t it? Does remind me of February 2019 some of the output, less confidence in my post than I typically do it has to be said, I wouldn’t rule out the Gfs pattern for next week just deem it too progressive.

Edited February 6 by Jordan S

[Froze were the Days]

 Daniel* Yes my mistake...I meant the snowline on an occluded front which stalled just to the east of London but as mentioned the real cold did get westward BUT that was the last time other than the SSW of 2018 we saw a major retrogression of a  Siberian High move westwards to effect the UK.

[Don]

EC46 still looking largely cold and blocked from next week.  Something's going to have to give!

[Nick F]

 Don The persistent high latitude blocking signal from EC46 over recent days still makes me optimistic of a cold end / last third to February. But my worry is the blocking could be too far north for southern UK to benefit, but northern areas could become cold at times. Every time cold patterns develops that seem to be too far north.